Posted on 12/28/2021 9:18:59 AM PST by blam
A year ago a respected Tokyo-based think tank, the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER), alarmed observers in the West by forecasting that China’s economy will surpass that of the United States by 2029, or less than a decade out. But the same think tank this month issued greatly revised figures, saying this is now expected to happen later than previously thought – in 2033 and not 2029, according to the updated forecast.
JCER concluded that China is damaging its growth potential in its recent clamp down on big tech and other major industries, including among other things its ambitious but controversial decarbonization drive as it tries to present itself a ‘team player’ jumping on the West’s climate change agenda band wagon, racking up more debt in the process, and there’s also looming danger of bankruptcy for real estate giants – with of course deeply troubled Evergrande being of foremost looming concern.
As summarized in Nikkei Asia, significant falling investment is expected given the centralized Communist-run country’s “stricter financial regulations aimed at curbing excessive investment in real estate.”
“The latest projection also factors in the US’s rapid economic recovery this year, helped by a massive stimulus package pushed through Congress by President Joe Biden’s administration,” Nikkei added based on the JCER findings.
Further according to regional media commenting on the Japanese think tank figures, “Now the change is set to take place when the economies of the two countries reach US$35 billion each. Currently, the US GDP is around US$23 trillion while that of China tops US$16 trillion.”
“The size of China’s economy is not expected to surpass that of the U.S. until 2033, rather than 2029 as predicted a year ago by JCER, whose latest forecast says Beijing is damaging the country’s growth potential.”
Read @NikkeiAsia: https://t.co/xzlcafUZgU
— CSIS Economics (@CSIS_Econ) December 15, 2021
Meanwhile, days ago the World Bank weighed in on China’s near future outlook saying it expects China’s economic growth to stall in 2022. According to the World Bank forecast out on Wednesday:
The World Bank has cut its forecasts for China’s economic growth this year and next, as the world’s second largest economy faces mounting headwinds from the new Omicron variant to a severe property sector downturn.
The bank now expects China’s GDP to expand 8% in 2021 compared with a year ago — that’s lower than its previous forecasts. (In October, the World Bank expected China to grow 8.1% this year. In June, it projected a growth of 8.5%.)
It also cut its 2022 forecast from 5.4% to 5.1%, which would mark the second slowest pace of growth for China since 1990 — when the country’s economy increased 3.9% following international sanctions related to the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. China’s economy grew 2.2% in 2020.
Thus ultimately China’s ambition of fast becoming the world’s number one economy is likely to take a little longer. The full Nikkei Asia report can be accessed here, and JCER’s report (in Japanese) here.
I expect the most any can do is slow or stall China......they are determined to carry out their agenda regardless of time and tide. China has great patience when it comes to what they covet.
I remember similar things being asserted about Japan back in the 1980s, and talk that we’d all have to learn Japanese.
If the US continues on the current trajectory, there may be more than one economy that surpasses ours, but trajectories do change. And places like China need a foreign consumer base to buy their products. Consumers from which countries would pick up the slack? India? Brazil? The nations of Europe?
I’m trying to remember a long term “expert” prediction that ever came true.
China has 5x more people give or take a bit. The US is the only large country with a high GDP per capita. The other large countries, India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia not so much.
80% of Chinese pretty much live as they did 100 years ago.
China overtaking the U.S. economically, is not dependent upon what China does, although it’s a big factor. China could easily overtake the U.S. economically by the U.S. going full-bore with socialism or communism, which is the direction we’re headed in under democrats. Heck, even under republican government, socialism is still on the rise in the U.S., so, eventually China will surpass the U.S., but will take longer without full-blown socialism.
They also ‘export’ their people all over the world.....literally.
Yup...Japanese kanban and JIT...I remember at Intel...
“I remember similar things being asserted about Japan back in the 1980s, and talk that we’d all have to learn Japanese.”
The US never shut down and moved 70,000 factories to Japan.
I do not take the threat of china lightly
At some point China’s growth will level off.
If it does so at the same level as Japan’s, China will have a economy somewhere around 5x than of the USA and would become the global hegemon.
Levelling off now thanks to the weaknesses of socialism is what we should pray for. That would ensure the primacy of the west for another century.
18.7% of China's population is age 60 or older. That, combined with them having a shortage of about 20 million women makes them an aging population with no children or immigrants replacing them.
Demographics is destiny.
They already lead the world in completely empty high rise buildings.
.
Current policies are enriching China.
Communist China was never going to overtake America. It’s always been a lie. They will collapse under their own despotism as all tyrannical regimes do.
By another measure China has ALREADY passed us.
Already.
About two months ago.
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