Posted on 11/24/2021 11:10:16 AM PST by Red Badger
The committee that sets interest rates for the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the November meeting where it first signaled that it could be dialing back all the economic help it’s been providing during the pandemic.
Following the two-day session that concluded Nov. 3, the Federal Open Market Committee indicated it will begin cutting back on the monthly bond-buying program that had seen it purchasing at least $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.
The goal of the program was to keep money flowing in those markets while maintaining broader interest rates at low levels to boost economic activity.
In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC said “substantial further progress” in the economy would allow a $15 billion a month reduction in purchases -- $10 billion in Treasurys and $5 billion in MBS. The statement said that pace would be maintained through at least December and probably continue going forward until the program wound down – likely by late spring or early summer 2022.
Investors, though, were awaiting the minutes for a deeper glimpse into what would prompt the Fed to move even more quickly in pulling back stimulus.
That’s important because inflation has gotten even hotter since the November meeting. In previous cycles, the Fed has raised interest rates to cool the economy, but officials have said they are willing to allow inflation to run hotter than normal to let the employment picture improve.
Markets, though, are anticipating a more aggressive Fed. Traders in contracts that bet on the future of short-term rates are indicating the Fed will raise its benchmark rate three times in 2022 in25 basis point intervals, though current official projections are for no more than one hike next year. However, those markets are volatile and can change quickly depending on the signals the Fed sends.
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Lol . .. I too remember that pic.
I pray we never see that here.
Yes, whether the policy is right or wrong, Americans cannot afford rate increases on their mortgages. It will decimate borrowers.
I was almost 16 when Jimmy Carter took office, so I'm struggling to remember how high interest rates and home mortgages got during that time. I do remember at one point having enough money to put into a CD that earned somewhere between 14% - 15% interest (at least that's my memory. It may be incorrect.) How high were home mortgages back then?
When I got my first home mortgage in late 1986, it was 9.75%. That much I do remember.
Interest rates reached their highest point in modern history in 1981 when the annual average was 16.63%, according to the Freddie Mac data. Fixed rates declined from there, but they finished the decade around 10%. The 1980s were an expensive time to borrow money.
Source: https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/historical-mortgage-rates-30-year-fixed
Especially those variable rate ones.
Who in their right mind gets an adjustable rate mortgage if rate increases would put them in financial jeopardy?
Yep deflation, except for the Exempt Ones.
(And there will be no wheelbarrow money, instead wheelbarrow employment seekers who’s jobs can’t offset housing transportation cost of food living and durable goods costs)
Actually you do sport. When the nation is 30 trillion in debt, the rising interest rates will force government into austerity if not bankruptcy, the government will raise taxes, fees, etc, and higher rates will massively slow the economy.
That means another sack of rice is a really good idea.
“10-year U.S. Treasury bills fetching a rate of 1.65% when inflation is running anywhere between 6% (reported) to 15% (closer to reality).”
I believe the Federal Reserve buys most of the long-term debt.
“Who in their right mind gets an adjustable rate mortgage if rate increases would put them in financial jeopardy?”
In the UK, I believe the standard type of mortgage is a 5-year ARM.
In the US, people are paying high housing prices because of the availability of cheap long-term mortgages.
The Chinese may at some point refuse to accept dollars.
At that point, the US economy will just collapse since we are so dependent on China.
Were you around in 2008?
One way to cool the economy is to go from X% 30-year fixed rate mortgages to X% 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages.
Housing affordability would not be impacted, but people would no longer need to rush to buy a house to lock-in cheap financing because locking-in cheap financing would be impossible.
Housing affordability would gradually improve because upward pricing pressure would soften.
My first mortgage was during the Carter/Reagan years. Yes I’ve been around. I would never sign an ARM. Seen to many people loose everything doing that. I’ve never taken out a home equity loan either. Only paid interest pre-online payment days on a credit card twice in my entire life. Bought cars cash.
Common sense isn’t common anymore, and monetary sense far less so.
*to be fair, Math is racist...
Still confused about the process & source of the inflation costing us more “money” and, ultimately, freedoms every month?
If we fail to treat the source of this disease, we’re doomed.
This video may help.
(2 links)
https://www.brighteon.com/dd2435a2-f586-438b-86a3-6792cb28e99f
https://www.bitchute.com/video/J25K2rZWPuSr/
>>I suspect that they will ease rates up to try and moderate the inflation rate and see if it helps.<<
Lol, that gave me a chuckle. The feds are between a rock and a hard place in that raising interest rates will add billions to the national debt.
Yea, I suspect they’ll ease rates up too.
Wait till their credit cards are 39.999%
It doesn't directly add to the debt, it adds to the cost of servicing the debt. Of course, when Congress does nothing to control spending or increase revenue the the interest costs can be included in future deficits.
Yea, I suspect they’ll ease rates up too.
The factors helping to drive this inflation - excessive government money handouts, pent up COVID demand, the supply chain fiasco - are not the normal drivers. That's why I suspect they will ease rates up a bit, see what the effect is, and either ease them up again or back them off.
Notice Nancy purchased her posh Florida retirement villa before that happens?
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