Strong Evidence That COVID-19 Is a Seasonal Infection – And We Need “Air Hygiene”

https://scitechdaily.com ^ | OCTOBER 21, 2021 | By ISGLOBAL

[Red Badger]

A new study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), an institution supported by “la Caixa” Foundation, provides robust evidence that COVID-19 is a seasonal infection linked to low temperatures and humidity, much like seasonal influenza. The results, published in Nature Computational Science, also support the considerable contribution of airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the need to shift to measures that promote “air hygiene.”

A key question regarding SARS-CoV-2 is whether it is behaving, or will behave, as a seasonal virus like influenza, or whether it will be equally transmitted during any time of the year. A first theoretical modeling study suggested that climate was not a driver in COVID-19 transmission, given the high number of susceptible individuals with no immunity to the virus. However, some observations suggested that the initial propagation of COVID-19 in China occurred in a latitude between 30 and 50o N, with low humidity levels and low temperatures (between 5o and 11 o C).

“The question of whether COVID-19 is a genuine seasonal disease becomes increasingly central, with implications for determining effective intervention measures,” explains Xavier Rodó, director of the Climate and Health program at ISGlobal and coordinator of the study. To answer this question, Rodó and his team first analyzed the association of temperature and humidity in the initial phase of SARS-CoV-2 spread in 162 countries across five continents, before changes in human behavior and public health policies were put into place. The results show a negative relationship between the transmission rate (R0) and both temperature and humidity at the global scale: higher transmission rates were associated with lower temperatures and humidity.

The team then analyzed how this association between climate and disease evolved over time, and whether it was consistent at different geographical scales. For this, they used a statistical method that was specifically developed to identify similar patterns of variation (i.e. a pattern-recognition tool) at different windows of time. Again, they found a strong negative association for short time windows between disease (number of cases) and climate (temperature and humidity), with consistent patterns during the first, second, and third waves of the pandemic at different spatial scales: worldwide, countries, down to individual regions within highly affected countries (Lombardy, Thüringen, and Catalonia) and even to the city level (Barcelona).

The first epidemic waves waned as temperature and humidity rose, and the second wave rose as temperatures and humidity fell. However, this pattern was broken during summertime in all continents. “This could be explained by several factors, including mass gatherings of young people, tourism, and air conditioning, among others,” explains Alejandro Fontal, researcher at ISGlobal and first author of the study.

When adapting the model to analyze transient correlations at all scales in countries in the Southern Hemisphere, where the virus arrived later, the same negative correlation was observed. The climate effects were most evident at temperatures between 12o and 18oC and humidity levels between 4 and 12 g/m3, although the authors warn that these ranges are still indicative, given the short records available.

Finally, using an epidemiological model, the research team showed that incorporating temperature into the transmission rate works better for predicting the rise and fall of the different waves, particularly the first and third ones in Europe. “Altogether, our findings support the view of COVID-19 as a true seasonal low-temperature infection, similar to influenza and to the more benign circulating coronaviruses,” says Rodó.

This seasonality could contribute importantly to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, since low humidity conditions have been shown to reduce the size of aerosols, and thereby increase airborne transmission of seasonal viruses such as influenza. “This link warrants an emphasis on ‘air hygiene’ through improved indoor ventilation as aerosols are capable to persist suspended for longer times,” says Rodó, and highlights the need to include meteorological parameters in the evaluation and planning of control measures.

Reference: “Climatic signatures in the different COVID-19 pandemic waves across both hemispheres” by Fontal A, Bouma MJ, San José A, Lopez L, Pascual M, Rodó X, 21 October 2021, Nature Computational Science.

DOI: 10.1038/s43588-021-00136-6

[E. Pluribus Unum]

It is not “COVID-19.”

It is the Fauci/China biological warfare weaponized virus.

[DoodleBob]

I've been saying that for months. There is a SEASONAL DIMENSION to cases and fatalities, and not necessarily a "surge" or a "new strain of the virus" or the results of triple-masking, vaccines, or statist policies.

The majority of deaths in most countries can be attributed to causes that feature a distinct seasonal pattern. The figure depicts the relative monthly frequencies of nine selected causes of death in the United States for women and men combined for the years 1959–2014. The reported number of counts in parentheses in the title of each panel is the actual number of deaths.

Viruses gonna virus. Even non-viruses gonna non-virus. Anyone who promotes eradication as a policy goal is either a fool or a statist (or both). It's like the war on drugs...liberty is destroyed, lives are lost, and Leviathan grows.

A very likely reality, is that this bug will be with us forever - like influenza, it'll be a highly contagious but more fatal (case fatality rate of about 1.8% vs 0.2% for influenza) and seasonal annoyance. When faced with this reality, we should follow the policy prescriptions of a wise FReeper: Quarantine the sick. Protect the vulnerable. Free everyone else.

[AndyJackson]

So close down DC, Manhattan and every other festering liberal place that breeds and spreads diseases in high occupancy office buidlings with decrepit air/con systems.

[frank ballenger]

The genius Fauci will now say to go outside every few minutes, rip your mask off, take a dozen quick deep breaths and go back inside.

[jcon40]

We’ve been waiting to see climate inserted into the Covid scam.

People get Covid indoors.

There are numerous technologies to control temperature, humidity and air quality that have been ignored from day 1 by our corrupt health officials.

[Tennessee Conservative]

From what I have seen it’s an extra bad flu. That can be managed. Do what you do during flu season. Be clean, eat right, get outside, and stay out of crowds. That’s what I do. I try to always be clean but be extra diligent when viruses are going around.

[political1]

I don’t know about this virus being seasonal. Here in Gulf Shores. Alabama we had a spike of cases in July and August. That was in the middle of summer.

[Red Badger]

TOURISTS.........................

[crz]

Well you saved me the effort.

It is as you say. A bio weapon.

Still trying to figure out how a anti-parasitical drug is effective against a corona virus.

[z3n]

Temperature and humidity can be controlled in public places, and in many of them they already are, except that dehumidification is more common than raising humidity. What isn’t so pervasive but probably should be, going forward, is higher emphasis on air quality, including higher percentages of fresh air (energy hawks hate that though) and UV air purification which works well on reducing circulating virus levels.

[cgbg]

Eliminate the hot air coming out of DC and the virus goes away...

[crz]

Yes, and DO NOT fly. Take a bus, or other means where a person is packed into a container like sardines.

You and I remember when we were kids and and the measles got loose in school? Or some kind of flu?
The whole dang bunch got it.

I got the whooping cough in fifth grade. And had been given the vaccine. That was a bad one.

[Tennessee Conservative]

I’m retired now but remember that my worst times being sick was when my daughter was in school. She brought stuff home to me even if she didn’t get that sick. If it wasn’t her spreading it to me it was the parents of kids. They came to work sick after getting it from their kids.

When I was a kid I had chickenpox and the two week measles. My other three siblings all had mumps but I didn’t get that.

[Herodes]

Immigrants...

[whitney69]

Apparently Barcelona doesn’t read health circulars. It’s these types of articles under the guise of science that are being used by the socialists to force fear and cave dwelling with severe action taken to keep the serfs under control.

According to the site I am providing:

“cases have been going up during the summer and they are claiming through Shaun Truelove, assistant scientist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the high amounts of the infection are peaking in the first week of September and cases will continue to decline nationally until at least January 2022, the end point of its current estimates.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/has-spread-covid-19-peaked-u-s-what-future-covid-n1279904

I just wonder how many gunshot victims they will need to count toward high numbers like they were doing before so the sky can keep on falling? But it is just how it would be expected to happen. Biden gets in, no matter how it was accomplished, and the media is still reporting the Chicken Little scenario to keep the socialists protected for 2022 even though it is contrary to the science projections from a very sound source like John Hopkins.

Sheep fear the wolf. So the sheep dog is there to protect them even if it is a wolf, also. And then the rest of the pack will be released from congress. After that it will be an infestation of zombies or aliens. Oops! Sorry, already got them.

Wy69

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Still trying to figure out how a anti-parasitical drug is effective against a corona virus.

The virus doesn't kill you.

It sets up the conditions for a secondary bacterial infection, AKA bacterial pneumonia.

Every time I catch a cold I get a sinus infection that migrates to my lungs. I would have died of that many times over if not for amoxicillin.

[jjotto]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7539925/

[Freee-dame]

In the middle of summer in the hotter parts of our country, people stay indoors in the air-conditioning. IMHO one of the most important ways to avoid getting Covid is to stay outdoors as much as possible. People in colder climates are outdoors in the summertime. People in hotter climates are outdoors in the winter time.

Instead the CDC told people to stay indoors. In some countries like Australia and Italy, people were ordered to stay indoors. It looks like Sweden got it right. They recommended that people avoid large crowds indoors. Other than that, schools and businesses stayed open. People used common sense.

[Arcadian Empire]

The air purification part is important.