Posted on 09/12/2021 9:08:04 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Entered Texas I 10 westbound at 12:30pm. Rained all the way to Houston. Then stopped. Thank God. Right now at Buccees in Katy and it’s not raining. Headed to San Antonio Where rain is desperately needed.
But not likely to get any.
/end weather report on the road. Back to I 10 west.
Oh dear heavens it changed again.
Good grief.
Oh well. It is good I went to the store already anyways. Jam packed and out of majority of meat. Which is a weird thing to hoard in prep for hurricane.
Hurrah for Buccees! Stay safe!
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Thanks for your traveling local report.
This over-hyped storm will turn out to be a nothing burger with minor street flooding
096
WTNT44 KNHC 132045 CCA
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Corrected third paragraph typo
Earlier reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, along with
recent Doppler radar velocity data from Brownsville and Corpus
Christi, indicate that the inner-core wind field has still not
consolidated into a single low-level wind center. High-resolution
1-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery, radar data, and
reconnaissance wind data all indicate at least three small but very
tight swirls revolving counter-clockwise around a mean center. An
eye feature has tried to form on multiple occasions, only to
dissipate after less than half an hour. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampled the most of the northeastern
quadrant of Nicholas’ larger circulation this morning and afternoon,
and measured 63-67-kt 850-mb flight-level winds, which roughly
equals 53-54-kt surface winds in that quadrant; the aircraft also
found SFMR surface winds of 50-51 kt in the same area. In addition,
Doppler velocity data from Corpus Christi and Brownsville have been
indicating average velocities of 59-60 kt between 9,000-10,000 ft
near the center, which also equates to about 53-54-kt surface winds.
Based on these wind data, the advisory intensity has been increased
to 55 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 015/10 kt. The new NHC model guidance
has come into better agreement on Nicholas moving toward the north-
northeast until landfall occurs, now that the 12Z ECMWF model
has made a significant eastward shift closer to the previous and
current GFS and HWRF model solutions. After landfall, Nicholas is
expected to move around the northwestern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge that is oriented east-to-west across the central
and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest guidance has continued to
trend more eastward through 24 hours, followed by a more southward
or right-of-track trend thereafter. As a result, the new NHC track
forecast has followed suit, and has also been shifted a little to
the right of the previous advisory track, and lies between the
tightly packed consensus models to the west and the GFS model to the
east.
Doppler velocity data from the Houston WSR-88D radar has shown a
large swath of hurricane-force wind speeds in the northeastern
quadrant of Nicholas’ circulation above 12,000 ft during the past
couple of hours, with brief appearances of average velocities of
80-100 kt at high altitudes. Thus, there is an abundance of
large-scale cyclonic vorticity available for another burst of
intense convection to tap into, which could allow Nicholas to
approach hurricane strength by landfall. This would most likely
occur tonight during the convective maximum period near landfall
where increased frictional convergence along the coast could aid in
the development of convection on the west side of the circulation.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected owing to land
interaction, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of
30 kt, and entrainment of mid-level dry air from the southern
Plains. As a result of these negative conditions, Nicholas is
forecast to weaken to tropical depression by late Tuesday and
degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas,
Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in
areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate
river flooding is also expected, along with isolated major river
flooding across smaller river basins and urban areas.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm this evening, and could be near hurricane
intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coasts this
evening and tonight, with hurricane conditions possible from Port
Aransas to San Luis Pass.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 27.4N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0600Z 30.4N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 30.9N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0600Z 31.1N 91.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 32.0N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Ah... know that area well. Good fishing down there! ;-)
Looks like most of the rain will slide north of you.
Best of luck!
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Looks like we aren’t going to get much rain here in Central Texas. But it makes for lovely weather in mid-September - high in the mid eighties which is largely unheard of here.
They’ve gone up a dollar since Biden
We were just there in March
Do they always have fog? We noticed a few days had an all day fog.
Your temps sound wonderful after a long hot summer. Too bad the rain isn’t pushing further inland.
I tried to will Nicholas your way. Looks like he’s headed to Louisiana, rather than the Hill Country. (NNE)
Gusty winds in the streaming video. Alas, no blue shed.
:-)
Which storm was that?
The guy filming was holed up in a coin car wash, IIRC.
The Blue Shed car wash was the bright spot during Hurricane Harvey 2017. Rockport, TX. Jeff Piotrowski.
That’s it! Thanks.
We were all glued to that LIVE vid.
I was a Blue Shed tourist when I went to Rockport and Port A on vacation a few years ago. The car wash renamed itself the Blue Shed Car Wash to capitalize on that chaser fame.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.