Posted on 11/12/2020 11:01:20 AM PST by A44MAGNUT
A University of Washington global health expert said the United States could reach a coronavirus death toll higher than that of the historic 1918 Spanish Flu as the virus continues to spread at a fast rate.
According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), it is estimated that the Spanish Flu pandemic killed about 675,000 people in the United States.
On Thursday morning, data from UW's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) indicated the U.S. could reach a death toll of more than 399,000 deaths by Feb. 1, 2021. If safety mandates are relaxed, the country could see 514,000 deaths by early 2021.
"Our behaviors are not helping us and we are seeing a rapid increase of cases and deaths, and unfortunately we may surpass what we have seen in 1918 if we continue this behavior," said Dr. Ali Mokdad, a professor of global health at IHME.
(Excerpt) Read more at king5.com ...
I no longer believe anything — anything! — any “expert” says ... especially an “expert” with a name like “Ali Mokdad”. (a “racist comment” ... yeah, perhaps ... but totally necessary).
death rate has sunk as low as the leftist DBM.....cases might be expanding but even that is questionable with our testing....some experts say that under normal condition, most tests would never be listed as positive anyway...
Deaths for causes other than COVID-19 are all either normal or slightly high so far this year.
The math puts a ceiling on the total number of possible deaths for COVID-19 in the US at about 1.3 million. R0 is 2.5, Herd Immunity Threshold is 1-1/R0 or 60%, US population is 330 million, 60% of that is 198 million, Infection Fatality Rate is 0.65%, 0.65% of 198 million is ~1.3 million. Assuming we get no vaccine (which isn’t true, we’re getting one) and no change in treatment (which also isn’t true, we’re getting better), no more than 1.3 million would die.
Not even wildly close, and then I would say that the US and the world have quite a few more people than they did 100 years ago.
Ha.
The Spanish Flu infected ~500 million people and killed 50 million people, including ~675,000 within the US. That looks like a 10% mortality rate.
Covid-19 has less than 1% mortality rate.
There were about 103MM people on the US in 1918, or about 1/3 the current population total.
Thus, adjusted for population, the Spanish Flu fatality total in 2020 terms is about 2 million.
Ya got a ways to go, Dr.
There were 105 million people in the USA during the spanish flu.
These puplished experts are fraudsters! You cannot compare each when there is a span of over 100 years between them. More population equals greater chance and you cannot factor in “accurate” data to get a true assessment of such, via statistics. It is akin to climate science. It is BS!
This is really scary. They have been right so far about everything. We need to trust them.
Sorry, I just could not keep this up. Bwaaahhhhh haaa!!!
Can’t be true! St. Feels up and St. Heels up will save us all!
The total population of the U.S. was approximately 103 million in 1918. 675,000 deaths equaled 0.66% of the entire population. It was great enough to cause the average life expectancy in the U.S. to drop by 12 years.
The population of the U.S. today is over 330 million. The equivalent number of deaths would be over 2.1 million.
You say 1.3 million would die. And how many would die of Corona virus as a single cause? To compare this runny nose with the Spanish flu is absurd.
I said that's the ceiling, based on the information we have today. Further, I specifically stated that many would NOT die because that number requires two assumptions we know not to be true: no improvement in treatment and no safe and effective vaccines.
"And how many would die of Corona virus as a single cause?"
All of them. If you've had diabetes and hypertension for 20 years and you get COVID-19 and die two weeks later, it wasn't diabetes and hypertension that killed you.
"To compare this runny nose with the Spanish flu is absurd."
You call it a runny nose. Hundreds of thousands called it a death sentence. Spanish flu killed about 675,000 Americans. At our current rate of deaths from COVID-19, we'll pass that by this summer. I think we'll avoid getting to that number thanks to multiple vaccines on the way, but your opinion that it's just a runny nose is not one that shared by very many and it's not one that's supported by the excess mortality we've suffered this year.
Now, at the same time, the political response to COVID-19 by the governors has been terrible. They've shut down economies - bankrupting businesses and families - which increases poverty, which is the biggest killer of them all. And they've utterly failed at providing people good guidance based on science which says people should be getting outside and exercising more; not staying couped up together indoors. But that's a far cry from claiming this is a "runny nose". That's insulting to everyone who's died and everyone who's lost a family member or a friend to this. And it lets people like Governor Cuomo off the hook for forcing nursing homes to accept COVID-positive patients. After all, if it's just a runny nose, he did nothing wrong. If it's a disease that's killing people, then knowingly forcing nursing homes to accept infected patients is criminally negligent homicide.
You may choose to live in Fairytaleland where it's all rainbows and unicorns, but I live in the real world where COVID-19 is a real disease that kills real people and where governors like Cuomo have exacerbated the situation with terrible policies that have caused tens of thousands of needless deaths and will continue causing more needless deaths through poverty long after vaccines have dropkicked COVID-19 out of our lives.
Do as you are told and don”t think for yourselves!
Government policy may have been responsible for a lot of he Spanish Flu deaths in the U.S. A recent study has indicated that government mandated or encouraged mask wearing during the Spanish Flu as well as staying indoors concentrated the virus and is probably responsible for more than 50% of the U.S. deaths.
If could
Only if they continue to FALSELY count deaths from other causes where the deceased had tested positive for the CHINESE Virus but died of other causes. Liars All!
Nobody actually knows what the R0 really is. There are estimates but the political power of a pandemic has prevented us from knowing anything. Nobody knows what the case fatality rate is because nobody really knows how many cases there are or have been. There is the number of positive tests some of which are PCR which have a high probability of false positive and the antibody tests when positive are people no longer at risk of infection. The case fatality rate is corrupt because of the subsidizing of cases. If a covid case pays better than a flu case there will be more COVID and less flu. Diagnosis is political also. 1.3 million is an outrageous number since actual deaths since the disease was first detected fewer than 10 percent of the deaths were actually covid deaths.
In my America, COVID is real. Black lives matter. Diversity is strength. Love is love. No person is illegal. Feminism is for everyone.
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