Posted on 11/01/2020 8:31:52 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
President Donald Trump is poised to win re-election in an Electoral College landslide, according to a poll released on Sunday.
The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between October 28 and October 30 and shows Trump with a one point lead over Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote, 48 percent to 47 percent. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen receives two percent of the vote, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins receives one percent of the vote.
The national popular vote results are within the poll’s 2.5 percent margin of error.
The poll also shows the president leading in the Electoral College by a margin of 326 to 212. On election day 2016, the president won 306 Electoral College votes to 232 for Hillary Clinton. The Constitution provides that a candidate must win a majority of the Electoral College votes cast–270 out of 538–to win the presidency.
According to Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll, Trump leads in all the states he won in 2016, and is poised to gain 20 additional Electoral College votes in three states Hillary Clinton won in 2016: Minnesota (10 Electoral College votes), Nevada (six Electoral College votes), and New Hampshire (four electoral college votes.)
The poll shows President Trump with record levels of support among Black and Hispanic voters.
Democrat nightmare: The daily Rasmussen Reports poll that tracks black support for Donald Trump shows the president sitting at 31 percent as of Thursday. https://t.co/a2rHUttnt6
— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) October 30, 2020
Nineteen percent of Black voters support President Trump, while 80 percent support Joe Biden. In 2016, President Trump received 8 percent support from Black voters.
Forty percent of Hispanic voters support President Trump, while 50 percent support Joe Biden. In 2016, President Trump received 28 percent support from Hispanic voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
That’s great!
The Primary Model is not a poll.
The Primary Model predicts Trump will be re-elected, with a confidence level of 91%.
The Primary Model algorithm has correctly predicted every US Presidential election from 1912-2016 except two (1960 and 2000), 25 out of 27 elections (92.6% accuracy).
The Primary Model does not poll or survey individual voters. It looks at the actual vote totals of selected primaries and, secondly, it takes into account the historical record of the re-election of the incumbent party “The White House Party” after the first term. Since 1960, “The White House Party” has failed to be re-elected for a second term only once (1980, Jimmy Carter).
Down goes Kamala-toe....
I already told you I voted. Are you telling me to vote twice?
“The only adjective I want to use for Trumps victory is bonecrushing. I want moronials weeping in the streets”
And there buses escorted out of town by gun-toting cowboys in pick-up trucks!
I’ll take it that way. I hardly ever sleep soundly enough to dream anyway.
Wouldn’t it be wild if he took California it being said it may actually be in play?
Let’s not count our chicken’s before they hatch of course.
Get out and vote for Trump! Vote early and vote often!
A lot but probably not enough of Colorado is primed to revolt having had enough from the present goobener.
No, not at all. Would you rather people didn’t vote?
I think that Oregon and Virginia can be added to your map.
Right now some of the polls have both listed as tossups. If there was ever a place for “shy” Trump voters, it’s Oregon. The proposed gun laws in Virginia have a lot pot of people upset.
New Mexico is another possible pickup. the Wall is really popular there.
I would not put money on it, but I think Trump get about 375 Electoral Votes. There are going to be a couple of surprises, maybe New Jersey, Colorado, or some of the mid Atlantic states.
The mass exodus of California has a strong hand in Colorado and New Mexico and other Western states, especially Texas. While their is an exodus from California by the libs, they are still voting en bloc as they did in California. Migration from other states on all sides are usually one of the main reasons a state flips from one side to the other over a period of time.
The top five outbound states are for 2019:
(Note to get inbound moves, subtract the percentage above from 100 and the result will be the inbound moves. For example out of every move in Illinois 30% of them moved into Illinois while 70% moved out of Illinois).
1) Illinois 70% (since this report was compiled by year starting in 2011, Illinois has made the top five outbound state falling no less than 61% for outbound moves),
2) California 65% (started ranking consistently in top rankings starting in 2017),
3) New Jersey 64%,
4) Maryland 61%,
3) Pennsylvania 61%.
The top five inbound states for 2019:
1) Idaho 69%
2) Arizona 68%
3) South Carolina 62%
4) Tennessee 61%
5) North Carolina 60%
For the 2019 Migration Report by NorthAmerican Moving Services, here is what they are saying:
Key Takeaways from 2019 Migration Report
The top three states for outbound moves in 2019 were
Illinois, California, and New Jersey.
Minnesota re-emerged as the sixth highest state with outbound moves after not being in the top eight the year before.
Connecticut, which also was not in the top 8 last year, moved up to #8 for the states with the most outbound moves in 2019.
For inbound moves, the top five states in 2019 were identical to 2018, with Idaho first followed in order by Arizona, South Carolina, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
Additional Takeaways
Northeastern states
The northeastern states rank high for outbound moves and have not placed within the top eight states for inbound moves since the study began in 2015.
Illinois came in first for outbound moves in 2019. This is the 5th time in the last 6 years where Illinois has led that category.
Connecticut ranked fifth in 2015, sixth in 2016, second in 2017, completely fell out of the Top 8 last year, until moving back in 2019 at eight.
Both Pennsylvania and New Jersey have consistently been in the Top 8 of outbound moves since the study began in 2015.
Data suggests that Americans move out of the Northeast for a couple of reasons:
—They are some of the least tax friendly states: https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/taxes/T006-S001-10-least-tax-friendly-states-in-the-u-s-2019/index.html
—The weather, to escape from the bone-chilling temperatures.
—Jobs. Many companies are moving to warmer clients where the costs are lower: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2015/5/13/which-states-have-the-most-job-growth-since-the-recession
Southern states
The southern states rank within the top eight for inbound moves only. These states have not ranked for outbound moves since the study began.
South Carolina consistently ranks high for inbound moves. It was third in 2015 before falling to fourth place in 2016 and 2017. South Carolina rose again to third place again in 2018 and 2019. Its percentage of inbound moves fell one point between 2018 and 2019.
Tennessee has risen steadily in the rankings for inbound moves since 2015 when it came in seventh. Tennessee rose to sixth place for inbound moves in 2016, fifth in 2017, and fourth in both 2018 and 2019. Its percentage of inbound moves decreased one point between 2018 and 2019. Florida has stayed within the top eight states for inbound moves since 2015. It ranked fifth in 2015 and 2016, sixth in 2017, seventh in 2018, and sixth again in 2019.
North Carolina fell from third place for inbound moves in 2016 and 2017 to fifth place in 2018 and 2019. Texas ranked eighth for inbound moves in both 2018 and 2019. Georgia, which ranked eighth for inbound moves in 2016 and 2017 has since fallen out of the rankings and was not in the top eight for 2019.
Why do the Southern states seem to have the influx of moves? For the same reasons that apply to the previously mentioned Northeastern states, except for the opposite.
Very friendly tax states: https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/taxes/T054-S001-10-most-tax-friendly-states-in-the-u-s-2019/index.html
Warmer climates
Job growth friendly states: https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/business/T019-S010-states-with-the-fastest-rates-of-job-growth-2020/index.html
Midwestern states
States in the Midwest typically rank for outbound moves. However, Colorado ranked sixth for inbound moves in 2018 before falling to seventh place in 2019.
Minnesota was not in the top eight states for outbound moves in 2018, but came in sixth place for 2019. It ranked high in several previous years as well.
Illinois is the leader here having ranked in the top spot for 5 out of the last 6 years.
Similar to Illinois, Michigan has consistently been a member of the states with the most outbound moves.
Western states
The western states are mixed, with rankings for both inbound and outbound moves.
Idaho tops the charts most years for the highest percentage of inbound moves. It has ranked first every year since 2015 except for 2017 when it was ousted by Arizona. Arizona consistently tops the chart for inbound moves as well. It’s ranked second every year since 2015 with the exception of its first-place spot in 2017. Arizona was only one percentage point behind Idaho in 2019.
Colorado ranked sixth for inbound moves in 2018 and fell to seventh place in 2019. However, its percentage of inbound moves rose one percentage point between 2018 and 2019. Though Oregon ranked within the top eight states for inbound moves from 2015 to 2017, it fell out of the rankings in both 2018 and 2019.
The 2 Western states that seem to always been among the states with the most outbound moves are Washington state and California.
Our Methodology
This is our data of all state inbound and out bound COD moves( household moves). We define the top inbound and outbound state as those that have the highest proportion of moves where the absolute value difference of inbound and outbound moves is greater than or equal to 400. This weeds out states that had a small number of moves but would have a high ratio of inbound/outbound moves. https://www.northamerican.com/migration-map
NM, Co and Va are still in play too.
I live in Oregon. We have a huge Trump base here in Southern Oregon but once the kids at U of O and O State and the commies in Portland and Eugene vote we’re doomed. Would be great if I’m wrong.
Kept hoping that our President would fly into Medford just once for a “peaceful protest.” We’ve had several car/truck parades and lots of enthusiasm, just not enough people.
As I see it the Democrats are going to poop in their pants when California turns RED. 55 electoral votes going to Trump.
People are SICK of the Democrats, especially the Nuisance we have in Sacramento. Massive car rallies are going on for Trump. Out of the hundreds of people I’ve talked to, only three people told me that they were going to vote for Biden.
Wait and see!!
Funny that you mention this. After watching the Peter Pan movie, I had many dreams of flying high in the air around our 3 story house.
I don’t know the answer—maybe you do.
Are the kids actually on the campuses?
To the extent they are not, they are much less likely to vote.
If Trump pulls the big upset in Oregon, that could be one factor.
Dreams are sometimes remembered from on the way down toward a deep sleep but most usually from on the way out of a deep sleep.
I do not believe all libs who flee liberal Schiffhole states continue to vote blue. Many do but some learn the lesson.
One reason, among others, I am optimistic this year is all the Ds who will vote for Trump and hopefully, down ticket, too. All those extra blacks & Hispanic votes have to come from somewhere.
I do not believe all libs who flee liberal Schiffhole states continue to vote blue. Many do but some learn the lesson.
One reason, among others, I am optimistic this year is all the Ds who will vote for Trump and hopefully, down ticket, too. All those extra blacks & Hispanic votes have to come from somewhere.
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