Posted on 11/01/2020 5:51:10 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 653,646
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 558,741
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 94,905
11/01/20: REPs - 3,315,884, DEMs - 3,410,789, lead of 94,905 for DEMs, 39.2% to 38.1%
10/31/20: REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1%
10/30/20: REPs - 2,966,747, DEMs - 3,130,430, lead of 163,683 for DEMs, 40.0% to 37.9%
10/29/20: REPs - 2,784,101, DEMs - 2,991,015, lead of 206,914 for DEMs, 40.5% to 37.7%
10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
“REPs - 3,315,884, DEMs - 3,410,789, lead of 94,905 for DEMs, 39.2% to 38.1%”
Gap down to 1.1 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Republicans are closer today on a percentage basis than 2016. In all probability, Trump wins Florida.
As goes Florida, so goes the Nation.
Rs at 38.1% combined for 2 days.
Ds decreased.
That means Indys were out there voting yesterday.
byecomey’s sheet say 92,304 right now as of 9:47 am.
MAGA2020! GET OUT AND VOTE!
base numbers from late least night
559,522 651,632 92,358
8:28 am
559,732 652,036 92,304
for the day so far
R +IPEV 210 DEMS UP 404 MAIL INS
NET GAIN +194 for D
D VBM return rate is 77.7%. Yesterday was 76.0%
R VBM return rate is 76.5%. Yesterday was 74.6%.
1.2 point gap. Smallest gap so far, he says again.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump
This from Au Ng:
“Candidates who win both Ohio & Florida are 26-1 since 1852”
“The only exception was Nixon in 1960, losing to JFK.”
“And Biden is no JFK!”
Love it.
For the 20 counties I’ve been tracking, NPA/O share has been on the rise every day for the last week. Really going up last couple days.
Did he update for Miami / Sarasota this morning?
I dunno. I just subtracted R from D “all votes. Got 92,304, but people last night on Twit were talking about the 92,000 number as well.
Speaking of which, I hit 100,000 Twit followers. Are these people drunk?
The model works, since JFK had to steal Texas and Illinois to get elected...
;-)
That makes sense.
And Nixon mostly likely lost due to cheating in Texas and Illinois.
I hope we didn’t cannibalize our vote. I only know two ppl left to vote in my family. Florida
I’m one of the 100,000.
I love reading you. It makes me laugh.
I try to bring some humor to my postings over here as well.
seems the Kid pulled the plug again
8:48 update late
Miami-Dade /sarasota dump incoming
so far R’s are winning the IPEV vote despite missing alot of the troops
if we can use any het gain in IPEV to eat into the DEms mail in lead it will be a good day
My numbers are the official DOE numbers right after they were posted.
If the Prez pulls this off, the post election videos will be better than 16 by far. If he looses, reps will just hunker down for hell. I am getting to close to retirement to hunker down however.
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