Florida Early Vote update, 11/01/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/01/2020 | self

[janetjanet998]

10:08 rep eating into the dems mail in lead after the Miami-dade dump

but in trends hold from previous days there should be an uptick in D mail ins in a couple hours

213 -127 R +86 net gain
345 -200 R +145 net gain
344 -171. R +173 net gain

dems up net 2847 on the day

[rlbedfor]

They are screwed if Trump wins. So they are doubling down predicting Biden. It is their only way out.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Rs and Ds seem to be at a draw today.

That looks good for us.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“I just got an alert from the WSJ that says Biden up nationally by 10.”

Here is an alert from Speedy:

That is nonsense.

[plushaye]

See my #48 above:

Iowa poll yesterday (A+ rated according to Nate Silver) shows IA indys breaking to Trump. It’s lifting R’s in House races.

Richard Baris of Big Data polling finds - Independents now trending towards Trump in AZ/PA/FL/OH.

[janetjanet998]

assuming these gaps hold

2020
Dems: 64.3%
GOPers: 64.1%

D +.2

2016
D turnout excluding Election Day vote = 53.6%
R turnout excluding Election Day vote = 55.3%

R+ 1.7 in 2016

less republicans vs dems have voted this year so far

Dems are toast

[SpeedyInTexas]

Come on PA.

https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-biden-underdog-nate-silver-2c1fb6c6-c75f-4cf5-9ee6-d51df1741e2b.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic

“Nate Silver: “Without Pennsylvania, Biden becomes an underdog”

[Owen]

Are Lee and Duval going to turn around their pre ED performance? Collier was similarly Advantage Biden but has moderated.

5 figure Biden advantage in both Lee and Duval. We are not pleased.

[2manydegrees]

Sorry to be so lazy...

But isn’t the simplest assumption set to

1. Note the Dem VBM count advantage.
2. Estimate the Eventual (Voting Day) VBM advantage (raw number) and the total VBM turnout (raw number)

3. Note the current IPEV D/R ratio.
4. Estimate (guess) the total election turnout from total registrations.
5. Subtract the VBM total
6. Extend the the IPEV ratio for the entire IP number.

Tell us all who wins and thus get our gratitude and great glory.

[drellberg]

Dumb question: Could some ballots be held back, either deliberately or because of backlogs? If yes, doesn’t this diminish the confidence that some are expressing here vis-a-vis President Trump’s prospects?

[SpeedyInTexas]

I generally think newspaper endorsements have no effect. But I sure hope Pittsburgh's very unusual endorsement of a Republican helps in western PA.

https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/editorials/2020/10/31/editorial-donald-trump-joe-biden-mike-pence-kamala-harris-presidential-candidate-endorsement/stories/202010310021?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1604232731

"No one ever asked the American people, or the people in “flyover,” country, if they wanted to send their jobs abroad — until Mr. Trump. He has moved the debate, in both parties, from free trade, totally unfettered, to managed, or fair, trade. He has put America first, just as he said he would.

Finally, let’s talk about one of the most important concerns in this region — energy. Under Mr. Trump the United States achieved energy independence for the first time in the lifetimes of most of us. Where would Western Pennsylvania be without the Shell Petrochemical Complex (the “cracker plant”)?

But the Biden-Harris ticket offers us higher taxes and a nanny state that will bow to the bullies and the woke who would tear down history rather than learning from history and building up the country.

This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972. But we believe Mr. Trump, for all his faults, is the better choice this year."

[SpeedyInTexas]

Chime in tomorrow with your prediction.

All welcome.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Dumb question: Could some ballots be held back, either deliberately or because of backlogs? If yes, doesn’t this diminish the confidence that some are expressing here vis-a-vis President Trump’s prospects?”

If they get held back to long, they don’t count.

VA Day is almost here.

Victory in America.

[plushaye]

Big ED party in WH planned. Dems and NYT not amused.

Michael D. Shear @shearm

SUPERSPREADER —
@realDonaldTrump plans to cram as many as 400 people in an indoor Election Night party at the White House East Room Tuesday, flouting all health recommendations against such events.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“New @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #NCpoll conducted 10/27-29 shows consistent Trump lead:
48.6% @realDonaldTrump,
46.5% @JoeBiden,
2.6% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.4% Other,
1.0% Und. See Report: https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nc-pres-1031/";

Trafalgar has everything on the line.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Trump is immune. All is good.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Two new polls in Pennsylvania this am, Biden’s lead in RCP Avg. stands at +4.0%.”

[SpeedyInTexas]

“FLORIDA
Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%
Jorgensen 2%

@SusquehannaPR/
@theamgreatness (R), LV, 10/29-11/1
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/11/Toplines-Florida-CFAG-Oct2020-2.pdf";

[SpeedyInTexas]

“IOWA
Trump 48% (+2)
Biden 46%
Jorgensen 1%
.
#IAsen:
Ernst (R-inc) 51% (+6)
Greenfield (D) 45%
Stewart (L) 1%
Herzog (I) 1%

InsiderAdvantage/@theamgreatness (R), LV, 10/30
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/IOWA-POLL-102020.pdf";

[wareagle7295]

Trump will win Iowa but a lot more than 2%.