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Posted on 11/01/2020 5:51:10 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
As well as the anointed one’s second term.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
@PittsburghPG
“This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972. But we believe President Trump, for all his faults, is the better choice this year.”
REPs are eating into the dems mail in advantage with small net gains in IPEV votes
we will see what happens in the 10-1pm time frame souls to the polls surge
example
9:48 last 2 updates
R +242 IPEV DEMS +502 mail in net D +260
R +259 D mail ins (-2) R+261
the last 2 updates combined are a draw
Richard Baris talks about yesterday’s gold-star Selzer Iowa poll concurs that his Big Poll findings show suburban women are trending towards Trump and not against. So that goes against Dem conventional wisdom.
Peoples_Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
“Selzer is not alone, and Iowa is not an anomaly.
In Arizona, Maricopa suburban women solidified Trump’s lead in our polling. Suburban women in Kenosha strengthened the president in Wisconsin.”
“Turnout of FL’s registrants so far:
Dems: 64.3%
GOPers: 64.1%
NPA/others: 49.7%”
do you any data what those numbers were going into election day in 2016 ? so we can get a feel for any Rep cannibalization
Trende also in denial:
“(A) at the end of the day the Selzer poll is just one poll, and even the best pollster can’t eliminate sampling error.
(B) the backlash to this result has been really . . . something.”
Polls are right unless we disagree with them.
Rs in Southeast Florida
Palm - 28.52%
Broward - 21.81%
Miami - 30.99%
Miami fell 3 days in a row by small amounts.
Ds trying to turnup the heat there.
Miami Heat...
How independents might break, depends on the state.
Yesterday’s gold-star Selzer/Register Iowa poll: “In the Register’s September Iowa Poll, Biden led with independents 50% to 38%. But today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35%.”
Richard Baris replies about his Big Data polling finds - Independents now breaking towards Trump in AZ/PA/FL/OH:
“Similarly, we found Indy moves to Trump in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. Really depends on the state. Think a lot of others too mistook a more partisan lean as an Indy swing when it was not.”
“And, do we know who’s voting on Tuesday...? More Rs?”
Definitely more Rs. Thats how we win.
“now blue on that map”
which mode are you looking at, IPEV, VBM, VBM+IPEV?
Thanks for the info.
Thanks for poll watching. It makes a difference.
“do you any data what those numbers were going into election day in 2016 ? so we can get a feel for any Rep cannibalization”
I think I can compute that. Let me track down registered vote count for 2016 and EV counts.
“do you any data what those numbers were going into election day in 2016 ?”
2016 Registered Ds - 4,905,705
2016 Registered Rs - 4,575,277
2016 D total VBM+IPEV - 2,629,812
2016 R total VBM+IPEV - 2,533,362
D turnout excluding Election Day vote = 53.6%
R turnout excluding Election Day vote = 55.3%
Now the turnout numbers are slightly too high for both sides because the 2016 VBM stats include VBM turned in on election day.
But I think the delta in turnout is in the ballpark heading into the election. R up 1.7 points.
Both sides have higher turnout this year.
Ds are performing better than 2016.
I just got an alert from the WSJ that says Biden up nationally by 10.
Wasserman sticking to his guns:
“There’s an excellent chance President Trump is headed for the biggest repudiation of a first-term president since Jimmy Carter in 1980 (9.7%) and an outside chance he’s headed for the biggest since Herbert Hoover in 1932 (17.7%).”
Who is Wasserman and what in the world does he base this on?
This is only possible if independents are breaking significantly for Biden and he’s getting historic Republican crossover. God help us if that’s true.
This is very good data on procedures to fix rejected VBM ballots. It’s probably a good thing, ethically, but it also eliminates a place for Dems to go to undo final results — if they already went to that place.
“The only exception was Nixon in 1960, losing to JFK.”
So, a sizable voter fraud election was the exception. That's a bit unnerving.
Ping
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