Rs at 38.1% combined for 2 days.
Ds decreased.
That means Indys were out there voting yesterday.
D VBM return rate is 77.7%. Yesterday was 76.0%
R VBM return rate is 76.5%. Yesterday was 74.6%.
1.2 point gap. Smallest gap so far, he says again.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump
For the 20 counties I’ve been tracking, NPA/O share has been on the rise every day for the last week. Really going up last couple days.