Posted on 10/28/2020 8:04:17 AM PDT by bort
Republicans gained a net of over 14K votes yesterday in NC early voting. Republicans shaved another 1 % point off the Democrats lead, which is now roughly 301K votes. The black share of the NC electorate in EV fell from 20.31% to 20.06%.
Democrats---1,423,590 (39.20%) (+67K votes)
Republican--1,122,985 (30.52%) (+82K votes)
Unafill.----1,068,317 (29.42%) (+69K votes)
Translation: As noted on previous posts, in 2016 Democrats finished early voting with a 310K vote lead over Republicans and LOST the state by 3.8 points. Republicans are on track to cut the Dem EV lead to the low 200sK. Obama won NC in 2008 (by the skin of his teeth) when the electorate was 23% black. Democrats need the black vote to be at least 22.5% of the electorate to win POTUS and senate. The black vote is on a trend to fall below 20% and I don't believe "souls to the polls" on Sunday will move the needle for Democrats.
Trump is coming to Fayetteville, NC this week for the kill-shot.
Bonus: Not to sound like a broken record, but the black vote is down in every swing state I have reviewed. Republicans unite on ISSUES. Democrats unite on IDENTITY. And if one portion of the identity politics playset does not show up, the Democrats are in trouble. Any state or subruban/rural congressional district that relies on the black vote is in play. VA Democrats and Rep. Donna Shalala (Miami-Dade), for example, should be very worried.
“How does anyone know the color of the voters?”
Publicly available voter info.
Doesn’t early voting give the democrats the numbers they need to overcome the republican candidate?
Example: If Trump is ahead by 25,000 votes in early voting, then on election day, out of the blue, democrats find 25,001 votes.
Isn’t that how Franken won in MN?
Voting fraud exists, and it works in close races (less than 1%).
Here in CT the Rats stole the governors race twice.
But—I am confident the President will win all the swing states by at least 2%—at that point voting fraud is just noise.
Amen! I wish these ‘we are going to be robbed’ fearmongers would understand that.
Ellington is a nice big town in Central Connecticut. Close to Hartford, but not easy to get to.
Have you been to the Webb Road Flea Market? They’re off exit 70 on 85.
Went there a few weeks ago. They have a VERY diverse crowd. Thousands through every weekend.
They had a stand for BLM and they had 0 customers.
They had a guy selling both Trump and Biden hats. He’s sold over 2000 Trump hats and 4 Biden hats.
North Carolina is NOT going Biden.
How do we know that Trump votes are going to show up on election day. Maybe Republicans are deciding to vote early just in case. Could we already be burning through votes at a similar rate as Democrats?
I’m going with the hat guy.
I have not been there. I’ll surprise my wife one weekend and head up there. Thanks!
Looked it up on Google map...that’s s big place. Not sure how I’ve missed it.
I think you will have both. Blacks staying home and more Blacks voting for President Trump than in 2016.
That would only work if Trump received zero votes on Election Day.
ping
Does anyone have the final EV numbers for 2016. It’s good that we’re likely going to have a deficit less than what we had in 2016, but I think we have to look at that number relative to (surely) increase turnout by all parties this year.
Yes, we could. If the Democrat advantage in VBM+IPEV in critical states like NC and FL is reduced to 0 or less by Tuesday, then it's hopefully not a problem. But even then we still don't know who those voters picked; we only know their party registration and in many places (MI, WI, TX, GA...) we don't even know that.
Hanging our hats on the assumption that we're going to slaughter the Democrats (figuratively, of course) on election day because that's what happened at some point in the past is directly at odds with the unusually high number of Republicans voting prior to E-day. "Cannibalizing" isn't just for Democrats anymore. In many places there will probably be more R than D left to vote on 11/3, but our side still has to actually show up because we're relying on a major advantage on that one day. After 11/3 we'll see big gains for the other team.
Who is relying on a major advantage? You seem to be. The GOP historically wins on ED. The GOP is in a stronger position in NC relative to 2016 in EV Dem advantage (9K lower as of this morning) and banking a net of a quarter million more GOP registered voters since Trump last won. That is a strong position to be in, but it does not guarantee a Trump victory.
great stuff
thank you for posting it
this sounds very encouraging
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