Posted on 10/28/2020 8:04:17 AM PDT by bort
Republicans gained a net of over 14K votes yesterday in NC early voting. Republicans shaved another 1 % point off the Democrats lead, which is now roughly 301K votes. The black share of the NC electorate in EV fell from 20.31% to 20.06%.
Democrats---1,423,590 (39.20%) (+67K votes)
Republican--1,122,985 (30.52%) (+82K votes)
Unafill.----1,068,317 (29.42%) (+69K votes)
Translation: As noted on previous posts, in 2016 Democrats finished early voting with a 310K vote lead over Republicans and LOST the state by 3.8 points. Republicans are on track to cut the Dem EV lead to the low 200sK. Obama won NC in 2008 (by the skin of his teeth) when the electorate was 23% black. Democrats need the black vote to be at least 22.5% of the electorate to win POTUS and senate. The black vote is on a trend to fall below 20% and I don't believe "souls to the polls" on Sunday will move the needle for Democrats.
Trump is coming to Fayetteville, NC this week for the kill-shot.
Bonus: Not to sound like a broken record, but the black vote is down in every swing state I have reviewed. Republicans unite on ISSUES. Democrats unite on IDENTITY. And if one portion of the identity politics playset does not show up, the Democrats are in trouble. Any state or subruban/rural congressional district that relies on the black vote is in play. VA Democrats and Rep. Donna Shalala (Miami-Dade), for example, should be very worried.
ping——I got a few minutes of free time to post NC stats.
You made me look bad after I told everyone u were unavailable to post today! LOL
my theory is, blacks might not vote for Trump, but they will stay home. Not all, but enough to affect the outcome possibly.
This news warms my heart. I would like to run the score up before Sunday’s Trolls to the Polls.
Yay!!!
my theory is, blacks might not vote for Trump, but they will stay home. Not all, but enough to affect the outcome possibly
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You are likely correct. Trump will gain a tiny fraction of black women voting for him (very tiny). He will gain a small group of black men who will vote for him at the polls. But his main gains will be some black women not showing up to vote b/c of China Virus/lack of enthusiasm for Biden, and similar number of black men who are “ok” with Trump and have no reason to vote. Blacks will have lowest turnout % since the 80s.
How is Tillis doing? How is Graham doing in SC?
Great info. Thanks.
Great stuff Bort! My version would have been a poor carbon copy. FYI, NC closes shop 10/31. No early voting on Sunday 11/1.
No Sunday voting in NC. NC quits early voting Saturday 10/31.
Even better news!
Tillis will win by the same amount Trump wins by. Graham will win by 10 points, as Democrats burn 120 million dollars on an un-winnable race.
I live in NC. Latest I heard is that Tillis is ahead. Not sure about Graham because he is being outspent by a huge amount, but his efficient shepherding of the Barrett nomination might have helped him.
How does anyone know the color of the voters?
And a little story from this Morning.
On my work commute here in fairly liberal Washington state community there is a guy flying a Trump flag over his chimney. For some reason, I suspected that his fence might be vandalized and took a look as I drove by...sure enough, freshly painted “F$$$ Trump” in big bold black. There is a BLM type house about a 1/4 of the mile down the road.
I feel like going to the home owner and shaking their hand for the courage to fly the flag. The vandalism actually promotes Trump, but the idiots that did it don’t get that.
The town my office is in, is the most populated by retired brass in the country, TONS of military here. But it also has some fringe left wing idiots that have even set up BLM booths during farmers market days...which I single handedly counter protested with an ALL LIVES MATTER sign right in front of their faces.
Best of luck NC!!
As noted on previous posts, in 2016 Democrats finished early voting with a 310K vote lead over Republicans and LOST the state by 3.8 points.
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And the Dem EV is likely more front-loaded this year due to media instilled Covid panic.
Thanks for the information. Looking at the total early vote in North Carolina from NBC’s website made the Republicans look bad but you made an important point about the enthusiasm of the black voters. The main stream media push two reasons why Trump will lose: (a) suburban moms and (b) senior citizens who fear Covid-19. Even the main stream media undestands that Black Lives Matter and George Floyd’s death aren’t creating record turnouts for blacks.
I wonder how many blacks are looking at a silent boycott as a way of supporting Trump, but not willing to actually vote for him.
The wife-unit and I did our duty yesterday. Had to talk my wife outta voting for the CharMeck bonds.
...in 2016 Democrats finished early voting with a 310K vote lead over Republicans and LOST the state by 3.8 points. Republicans are on track to cut the Dem EV lead to the low 200sK. Obama won NC in 2008 (by the skin of his teeth) when the electorate was 23% black. Democrats need the black vote to be at least 22.5% of the electorate to win POTUS and senate. The black vote is on a trend to fall below 20%
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