Posted on 10/25/2020 5:21:13 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
Three post-debate polls in swing states that will decide the 2020 election show President Donald Trump with a small lead.
In Michigan, the Trafalgar Group, one of the most accurate swing state pollsters in 2016 and 2018, shows Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden by two points, 49 to 47 percent, with third party libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen at two percent. Earlier this month, this same pollster had Trump up by a single point, 47 to 46 percent.
Trump is also up two with Trafalgar in Florida, 49 to 47 percent, over Biden. Jorgensen is again at two percent. Earlier this month, in this same poll, Trump had a similar two point lead, 48 to 46 percent, over Biden.
In Arizona, Trump sits at 50 percent, compared to just 47 percent for Biden. Jorgensen is again at two percent. An earlier Trafalgar poll had Trump up by four, 48 to 44 percent. So Trump’s lead shrank by a point, but he is at the magic 50 percent mark.
NEW @trafalgar_group Post Debate Poll:
Michigan:
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%Florida:
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%Arizona:
Trump 50% (+3)
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 25, 2020
Trafalgar’s number are currently something close to outliers compared to other pollsters looking at those same states.
In Florida, the RealClearPolitics poll of polls shows Biden up 1.5 points.
In Michigan, the average shows Biden winning by 7.8 points. A Fox News poll released just five days ago has Biden winning by 12 points, 52 to 40 percent.
In Arizona, Biden is up 2.4 points in the average.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
“Insider Advantage Chairman, Matt Towery on Hannity Friday: “The polling this year is very, very difficult. I don’t have a lot of confidence in any of the polls. We are now having to rely more and more on cell phone respondents and they are very unreliable so polling may be finished after this cycle.
This looks just like when I talked to the Fox affiliates last year for 2016. I was telling them on the air the night before that I didn’t think Hillary was going to win. I thought Trump would win even though the polling said otherwise . I see the exact same trend this time. I see things shifting very, very quickly.”
Coming from John Nolte who hates trump that says something
A Fox News poll released just five days ago has Biden winning by 12 points, 52 to 40 percent.
In Michigan.
I don’t cast judgement on folks who watch Fox. There are still some good people left and I assume they watch those people.
I’ve not watched in a long time because there was just too much arguing and yelling.
I could have gone back to my ex if I wanted that :)
I do believe, though, that the good people will be gone when their contracts are up.
But what do I know?
He wins those 3 states, he doesn’t need PA.
Where are you getting that? John Nolte was one of the first to defend Trump when Jonah Goldberg and the rest of the GOP elites were against him in 2016.
The Fox News polls are among the worst out there. You will notice that the Conservatives at Fox never cite the poll.
I can certainly understand that - makes a lot of sense. I got numerous unknown calls on both my cell phone and landline - none of which I answer. Several of them have said “political call” so it was possibly pollsters.
Now...the question is - do Democrats really answer their phones more frequently than Republicans? Why would this be?
He’ll end up with those four states and a whole lot more. The floodgates are about to open up on Biden!
guess the woman that owns the polling firm that Fox uses is one of the biggest Trump hating lezzies out there...so...
Who Nolte? Not after he got elected
I didn’t know that. He is on Breitbart radio and has never said he dislikes Pres Trump
Goebbels would die laughing as he printed these!!
So it was a very, very close victory last time, and now, after a ton of success on Trump’s part, it TWELVE points apart against him??
What bothers me is that epstein is killed with all of us knowing he was killed, so was Seth Rich.
The msm doesn’t even pretend to care about the lies it prints many times daily.
They’ve no fear or respect for us at all anymore.
Maybe they haven’t for a long time and Trump just pulled the curtains back for us
Great news. Nolte is a d*ck though.
The polling industry is running on fumes and the Michigan Fox News poll is just more evidence of that.
Even the few good (read: accurate) pollsters are having to go through hoops to get “representative samples.” Trafalgar is reduced to using every mode right down to texting to get those samples.
And even then they are all having to deal with the “shy” Trump voter problem. You can’t poll them if you can’t find them...:-)
But the good news is the good pollsters are now saying Trump will be re-elected.
Je wouldn’t need PA or Wisconsin. I have been assuming AZ is lost because it’s McCain country. I’ve been assuming his ground machine is going to work to help Sleepy. If he holds AZ we could have a great evening
There are a lot of Arizonans who strongly disliked McCain.
“Now...the question is - do Democrats really answer their phones more frequently than Republicans? Why would this be?”
Yes. The answer is two fold.
First, republicans are 5 times less likely to participate in polls in general. They have always been harder to find.
Second, because of the uncivilized behavior of the left towards Trump supporters it can be dangerous to your property or you if you disclose something they don’t like.
If he gets MI but not PA or WI, then he needs NC and AZ.
He’ll win FL easily. He may win PA easily depends on the cheating in Philly.
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