Posted on 10/23/2020 6:46:15 PM PDT by Coop
Gallup and Tucson ?
I agree in almost all other scenarios. Not this one.
Pistols at dawn?
10/21: Ronchetti topped Luján in fundraising last quarter
Ronchetti is still trailing overall, but this haul shows me he's indeed viable.
Thanks for the article post! Surprised but like it.
Voted late yesterday, went by the polling place on Central and Tramway around 2:30± long line! Asked a worker when would be a good time to come, she said around 6:30+ or just before closing at 7 pm.
Returned at 6:40 and walked right in.........no line. One of the poll workers said over 1,000 voters a day since they opened up.
To me that was encouraging! Maybe this time NM will go Republican!!!!!!!! Praying that we do!
God is still lives!! :^)
Tucson is about 150 miles from the New Mexico border and Trump visited on Monday. Gallup has 20,000 people and is 185 miles from Flagstaff. Farmington has 45,000 and is nearly 300 miles from Flagstaff. Tucson is 275 miles from Las Cruces.
I’m one of those living in between Tucson and New Mexico. There is a lot of open space where I’m at!
From Zero’s peak of 57% in 2008 (and how on earth did McQueeg manage to blow losing NM by over 15% ?), there was a drop-off of 4%+ in each successive election for the Dems. Hence 53% for Zero in ‘12 and then 48.3% for the Butcheress of Benghazi in 2016 (that dovetailed with her drop-off in countless locales). But Trump, by that reckoning, should’ve dramatically increased his numbers that went to Johnson (Egg McMuffin only stole .73% from Trump). It doesn’t make statistical sense that those numbers came from Clintoon.
Bob Barr in 2008 got a paltry .29%, which was in keeping with prior Libertarian NM performances (mostly between .2-1%). Johnson’s 3.55% in 2012 almost exclusively came from out of Willard’s numbers. Willard should’ve gotten 46% minus Johnson. His enormous overperformance of 9.34% (which was 31 TIMES what the average Libertarian received before 2008) clearly came at the expense of Trump. That Trump got 2% LESS than McQueeg’s terrible 2008 performance is pretty clear indication of that. Minus Egg McMuffin and Johnson, Trump should’ve received at least about 48% of the vote. If all but the base Lib vote stayed put (.3%), that means Trump should’ve won with about 49.7% to Clintoon’s 48.3%.
Now I have to assume some Dems voted for Johnson, but I think that the unusual situation with Johnson seen as a Republican politician in the state and disgruntled Dems voting for Jill Stein (who got 1.2% - and that was 4 times what she got in 2012 in the state), to me it’s pretty clear that the overwhelming bulk came straight out of the GOP/Trump numbers. I’d be surprised of that 9.3%, removing that .3% for committed Libertarians, that 7 or 8% of that 9% came out of Trump’s end.
Tucson is still considered SE AZ, and Trump should obviously target it as a squishy area. Obviously the Gallup (or Farmington) area in the middle of the Indian Country ought to be another target for Trump.
I expect with that “let’s get rid of the oil industry” bit from Plugs, Trump’s margins in “Little Texas” (East NM) are going to soar through the roof. He should barnstorm the state, even in the old Spanish North, which used to be Republican prior to the Depression (conversely, the areas in Southern Colorado with a similar history, went in Trump’s direction in 2016). I think Trump should also be unafraid to go into Colorado. Despite the moonbats dragging the state the wrong way, I don’t think it’s entirely out of reach.
Hey if Bill Clinton can make it to Shiprock, New Mexico, he can certainly make it to Farmington, New Mexico.
Bill landed in a helicopter on Shiprock High Schools Football field.
The Journal also endorsed the Dem candidate for NM-2, Torres-Small who is an attractive progressive lib candidate in moderate clothing. She supports (or so she says) the NM oil and gas industry but votes with Pelosi 95% of the time and voted for Trump’s impeachment. She was a staffer for radical environmental retiring Senator Tom Udall and if Biden/Harris are elected their policies would overcome whatever objections she may have to the banning of drilling on federal land and fracking. On top of the that, the Pub candidate and former state legislator, Yvette Herrell, is deeply flawed having been caught with getting NM government contracts for her own family and extravagant spending on trips and such (NM doesn’t pay its legislators).
Trump will easily win SE New Mexico (see my tag line). We had a Trump car rally Saturday that went 86 miles from Jal to Tatum and had over 400 vehicles from motor cycles to 18-wheelers and everything in between. His margin here might also drag Herrell with all her blemishes over the line too.
I think Johnson’s votes were 51-59% from Clinton, and you think they were more like 20% or less for Clinton. Heck, I hope you’re right! Any other state I’d be right there with you, figuring the leftists would just vote Green Party. But Johnson’s history with NM made me doubt the equation.
Well, at least you don't have to mow it!
Me neither! Trump only lost CO by 2.8 points. I actually have Trump taking CO and VA (lost by 4.9 points).
Why do we want Bill Clinton in Farmington? LOL
lol! :) Meant trump in farmington.
:)
I don’t see Xochitl winning a second term here.
If DJT were to have a rally in NM, my guess is that Albuquerque would be the location.
You think if dude wins the Senate race he’d immediately turn right around and run for Governor?
Well, he could, but not likely. I said the thinking was if he loses the Senate race, but keeps a close margin (say, within 5% or so), he would be the odds-on choice to run for Governor against Lujan Grisham in 2022, especially due to her unpopularity. Similar situation to when Pete Domenici ran for Governor in 1970 and lost by 5% to Bruce King and was the odds-on choice to run for Senator in 1972.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.