From Zero’s peak of 57% in 2008 (and how on earth did McQueeg manage to blow losing NM by over 15% ?), there was a drop-off of 4%+ in each successive election for the Dems. Hence 53% for Zero in ‘12 and then 48.3% for the Butcheress of Benghazi in 2016 (that dovetailed with her drop-off in countless locales). But Trump, by that reckoning, should’ve dramatically increased his numbers that went to Johnson (Egg McMuffin only stole .73% from Trump). It doesn’t make statistical sense that those numbers came from Clintoon.
Bob Barr in 2008 got a paltry .29%, which was in keeping with prior Libertarian NM performances (mostly between .2-1%). Johnson’s 3.55% in 2012 almost exclusively came from out of Willard’s numbers. Willard should’ve gotten 46% minus Johnson. His enormous overperformance of 9.34% (which was 31 TIMES what the average Libertarian received before 2008) clearly came at the expense of Trump. That Trump got 2% LESS than McQueeg’s terrible 2008 performance is pretty clear indication of that. Minus Egg McMuffin and Johnson, Trump should’ve received at least about 48% of the vote. If all but the base Lib vote stayed put (.3%), that means Trump should’ve won with about 49.7% to Clintoon’s 48.3%.
Now I have to assume some Dems voted for Johnson, but I think that the unusual situation with Johnson seen as a Republican politician in the state and disgruntled Dems voting for Jill Stein (who got 1.2% - and that was 4 times what she got in 2012 in the state), to me it’s pretty clear that the overwhelming bulk came straight out of the GOP/Trump numbers. I’d be surprised of that 9.3%, removing that .3% for committed Libertarians, that 7 or 8% of that 9% came out of Trump’s end.
I think Johnson’s votes were 51-59% from Clinton, and you think they were more like 20% or less for Clinton. Heck, I hope you’re right! Any other state I’d be right there with you, figuring the leftists would just vote Green Party. But Johnson’s history with NM made me doubt the equation.