Posted on 10/23/2020 12:10:39 PM PDT by Kaslin
Anyone who has read this byline over the years knows that I'm not in the prediction business. I rarely take the precious space this fine website grants me to tell you what I think or believe may happen in the future, especially when it comes to how Americans will vote.
Anyone who tries to predict how the American electorate will respond to the candidacy of Donald Trump is lying to you and themselves and engaged in a fool's errand. This is a political figure who has defied every ounce of conventional wisdom in the five short years he has been engaged in electoral politics, and if the 2020 election is any indication thus far, that phenomenon continues.
Remarkably, the majority of my very well-paid colleagues who dabble in the dark art of political commentary and analysis on television didn't learn this simple lesson after the 2016 presidential election. But, there they are again, telling their viewers that the election is "Biden's to lose" and "Trump is way behind" and (my personal favorite) "Biden is favored to win in 87 out of 100 scenarios!"
However, taking into account the well-executed disclaimer above, I'd like to take a few moments to explain why I think President Trump's debate performance Thursday night could very well be the game-changing event he needed to head straight to re-election eleven days from now.
1. The Tone
I'm not one of those voters who really gives a flip about whether a politician "sounds presidential" or not. Most of the men who have held the office of president of the United States have had huge egos. It's sort of a pre-requisite to put yourself out there as a potential "leader of the free world," isn't it? I expect that most of the presidents and presidential candidates in my lifetime have been insufferable jerks behind the scenes and they put on their phony "presidential" face to con the voters.
That said, we must recognize that many voters do crave a straight-forward, serious tone in their president, and their opinions on this matter should not be dismissed. After all, they vote too.
The latest RCP average of polls shows Biden leading 51% to 42%. (I know, the national polls are irrelevant because of the electoral college, but for the point I am about to make, the national polls actually serve a purpose.)
To me, the remarkable aspect of this poll is not that Biden is leading. It's that it shows 7% of the electorate is undecided. Really? Undecided? This late in the game? And with these two politicians? One who has been fed into our consciousness in every aspect of our lives over the past five years and is currently the president and the other who was vice president and has been in the public sphere for nearly five decades? Who in the hell are this 7% who can't make up their minds?
And then it hit me: They aren't undecided, they lean Trump, but they are waiting to make that final commitment. Something is stopping them. Something relatively intangible. It's the "tone" thing. They are down with his policies and achievements, but they just don't like the guy's attitude. They prefer the "presidential" thing.
Last night, Trump gave them just enough of that tone to help them make that commitment in the final days of the campaign.
Again, I don't give a flip about the tone thing; I evaluate results. Would I like my president to be the second coming of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln? Sure. Is that guy even running for office in this era? Hell no... I mean, the mobs are tearing down statues of the real Washington and Lincoln, so why would our era's version step up?
2. The Oil
It can't be overstated: Trump getting Biden to admit that he will end the oil industry was a seminal moment. It was the perfect confirmation of just how radical, out-of-touch and destructive Joe Biden and the Democratic Party have become.
The proof is in the Biden campaign's embarrassing attempt to gaslight the world and tell us all that what we heard Biden say is not at all what we heard Biden say.
Biden's team seeks to clarify Biden's remarks on the oil industry, with @KBeds saying that Biden was referring to ending oil subsidies.— Annie Linskey (@AnnieLinskey) October 23, 2020
Yeah right. He was just talking about subsidies. OK... let's watch the moment together, shall we?
Trump: "Would you close down the oil industry?"
Biden: "I would transition from the oil industry, yes"
Trump: "That's a big statement"
Biden: "That is a big statement"
That big statement will lose Joe Biden the election. His plan is too radical and will destroy our economy! pic.twitter.com/UVYXm8MmUv— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) October 23, 2020
Biden has been telling the country that he is not beholden to the radicals in his party pushing the Green New Deal. Of course, we don't really believe him, but many voters are more than prepared to allow themselves to be fooled by such gaslighting. But this is indisputable. It comes from his own mouth and semi-coherent words.
It's less about oil, although, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and really anywhere else people like cars (I hear cars are big in Michigan), than it is about Biden voluntarily confirming that he is aligned with the radical Left to upend our nation's economy and way of life.
There's one other thing about this moment that helps Trump. Watch the video again. Do you see it? Trump created this moment. He had to take charge of the stage, raise his hand to stop the moderator from moving along, and challenge Biden directly with the question that should have been asked and forced the agenda. This is an Alpha-leadership move and it is the kind of thing that people genuinely want in a leader, regardless of politics.
3. The Outsider
Donald Trump has been president for four years. He is the leader of the free world and has been at the center of every American political issue for over five years. And yet, somehow, he is still running as an outsider.
It's an amazing thing.
He got an assist from the Democrats since they nominated the longest-serving politician in America who has been the ultimate insider and personification of stagnant, do-nothing DC politics for that entire time. Trump skillfully took that gift and hammered home the most important message of his candidacy last night.
A sample:
"That’s a typical political statement. Let’s get off this China thing, and then he looks: 'The family around the table,' everything. Just a typical politician when I see that. I'm not a typical politician. That’s why I got elected."
flamed pic.twitter.com/RAXX8Udww1— Not the Bee (@Not_the_Bee) October 23, 2020
"See, it's all talk, no action with these politicians. Why didn't he get it done? [You say], 'That's what I'm going to do when I become president' – you were vice president along with Obama as your president, your leader for eight years. Why didn't you get it done? You had eight years to get it done."
President @realDonaldTrump to Joe Biden: “you had 8 years to get it done…you’re all talk and no action”https://t.co/gPwo1VdWqE pic.twitter.com/dcxMURBMVf— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 23, 2020
"Joe, I ran because of you. I ran because of Barack Obama. Because you did a poor job. If I thought you did a good job, I would have never run."
“You know Joe...I ran because of you. I ran because of Barack Obama...cause you did a poor job. If I thought you did a good job, I would of never run. I ran because of you...I’m looking at you now...your a politician...I ran because of you.” @realDonaldTrump #Debates2020 pic.twitter.com/B9Dnn1aIGp— Dan Scavino?????? (@DanScavino) October 23, 2020
In the final third of the debate, Trump was able to settle into this theme very comfortably. It's no wonder it's what vaulted him into the lead in the 2016 Republican primary and on to victory that November. Anyone who is still undecided is probably a voter who does not traditionally align themselves on a regular basis with one party or the other. They are independent. These voters like outsiders.
They liked Ross Perot. They like Barack Obama. They like Donald Trump.
He was able to remind them that even though he's the president, he's still the consummate outsider compared to the likes of Joe Biden.
Again, I don't pretend to tell you how voters will line up in eleven days, and I won't insult your intelligence by assuring you that this thing is settled for either of these candidates. If I had that kind of undeserved arrogance and hubris, I'd be a television analyst.
I only say this; President Trump had a couple of important goals to achieve in this last debate to give Trump-shy or Trump-hesitant voters enough reason to commit to him. In my opinion, for what it's worth, he achieved those important goals. And then some.
From what I know republicans outnumber democrats on election day voting in person. May be it will be different this year. We have 2 unusual candidates. One tweets a lot and reminds many suburban women of their ex-husband. Other is a corrupt insider who got rich in politics and obviously is fading in cognitive abilities.
I bought insurance in case Trump loses. Cash to pick up stocks cheap if Biden wins.
No it’s not. Absentee balloting with a legit reason or vote on election day. Period.
At least 99 out of 100 scenarios will be shown to be fantasies once the history plays out.
Boy you nailed it with the suburban women.
It’s hard, but personal feelings and who one thinks is best for the job should be kept separate.
Trump gave a shout out to Italians during one of his rallies so it’s an easy choice for me :)
California Assembly Bill 5, which made illegal freelancing "gig" jobs in January, has a big admirer in Slow Joe, who has vowed to take it national with his PRO Act.
The PRO Act will wipe out my, and millions of others, job overnight. In my industry, like so many others, the work is not shift work. It is project-based, i.e. the name "gig" economy. Employers cannot pay you to sit and do nothing from 9 to 5 on days they are waiting for the next project to come in.
But the PRO Act, and Assembly Bill 5, isn't about helping workers or fairness or "good jobs". It's about grabbing their ankles for the unions who want all jobs to be controlled and unionized.
We all know how many Dems are voting Trump HELL #walkaway alone has 450,000 just because these ballots are registered Dems doesn’t mean a damn thing WHY would most people take the time to change their voter registration??
Trump was very persuasive with his talk of no reults from Biden after being in DC for 47 years, including 8 as VP.
Thanks for posting.
Oregon has voter fraud down to a science. It’s amazing that there are any R’s in our house and senate. There’s no way the greatest president EVER will win here. (Please prove me wrong.)
You are resoning right along the libes the founders reasoned this out. Think about it, there was no TV, no wire service, no airplanes or huge trucks, no computers ... all the means by which votes can be amassed and counted IN ONE OR TWO DAYS. When the founders voted ON ONE DAY ONLY, the counting took long enough that they made a provision for the assigning of the electoral college make up, but they did not have voting spread out over weeks and even a week or more AFTER the vote day deadline. The demon rats want the process strung out so they can have time to assess how many manufactured ballots they need to win a race. Leftafornia is a prime example of the cheating treachery.
You’re right.
I am embarrassed of my weakness today.
I was doing so well.
I sound like a fruit.
Trump will win and it will be great!!
So glad my daughter watched it!
Biden is toast!
It sounds almost impossible.
Even morse code wasn’t invented until the 1830s
I thought it was much later than that. I looked it up :)
But it seems that each state picked its own voting day and in 1800 voting took place over 6 months.
I assume though that the day chosen for each state was the only day folks could vote..
My God!!
And we get impatient not hearing that night! :)
“No it’s not. Absentee balloting with a legit reason or vote on election day. Period.”
Voter ID, signature matches, and election day moved to Wednesday and made a national holiday. And I’d like to see mandatory voting (bite my shiny metal ass, the pros outweigh the cons) for every eligible citizen.
Both Trump and God showed up to the Debate; Biden had a sundowners episode (dementia)
https://www.pscp.tv/AliScopes/1gqxvaQbyppJB
Burn all existing voter rolls
Want to vote, you have four years to register in person
two forms of government issued identification. One must prove US citizenship
Eliminate early voting
eliminate vote by mail
Limit Absentee voting to those with a specific reason; elderly, handicapped, travel etc.
Vote in person on election day
ID required
Purple ink on right thumb when vote is complete
Repeat every ten years on five year census cycle.
If anybody was so enthusiastic for Biden/Harris as to vote early, there is no way their minds would have been changed by the debate. Those people are probably chanting "No more oil!" at this very moment.
Good point :)
We should give them a world with no oil for a few hours.
Only hours would do the trick
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