MinnPost poll finds close race between Biden and Trump in Minnesota

Minnesota Post ^ | Oct. 20, 2020 | Greta Kaul

[Zhang Fei]

Forty-nine percent of likely Minnesota voters support former Vice President Joe Biden, while 44 percent support President Donald Trump, a poll by Change Research commissioned by MinnPost finds.

The online poll was conducted among 1,021 likely voters in Minnesota last week, from Oct. 12 to Oct. 15, and the results’ margin of sampling error is 3.1 percentage points.

Separated by just five points and within the margin of error, this represents the closest the two presidential candidates have been in a recent public poll.

Recent polling

Fewer pollsters have surveyed Minnesota lately compared to in August and early September, when the state had a brief flirtation with national media outlets as a more than remote possibility for flipping from blue to red. On Aug. 31, FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 69 percent chance of winning the state, giving Trump a little less than a third, the closest the site has had the race before or since.

More recently, pundits have placed Minnesota in the much more likely blue column. As of Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 92 percent chance of winning the state, his highest odds since the race began. The site’s polling average put Biden at 50.7 percent, compared to Trump’s 41.6 percent — a spread of 9.1 points. Polls done in September and October have suggested Biden ahead by as little as 4 points and as many as 17.

Some recent polls suggest the race may be tightening as Election Day nears, though. A SurveyUSA poll released in early October found Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points, a slightly larger margin than the one in the MinnPost/Change Research poll, compared to 9 points in early September.

Change Research’s methodology involves targeting survey takers based on geography, age, gender, race and partisan identification via advertisements on websites and on

[Meatspace]

“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris deserve 0 electoral votes. What did THEY ever do to earn 1?”

They have a shot at Delaware.

[KSCITYBOY]

bump info

[DarthVader]

I’m only passing on what I am receiving. The guy that is doing this polling is really good. His primary business is predictive data science where you must be accurate. Remember he is also independent.

[Batescw]

D +6 and mid 80s for R support of Trump.

[Zhang Fei]

[Is Trump winning anywhere?]

---

I could be very wrong, but I think the immigrant vote is a sleeper that will swing significantly right. Based on the many cab drivers I’ve encountered who were middle income or better in the old country, I expect most aren’t thrilled with the lockdowns. It’s not just a matter of income that can be compensated for with stimulus payments. Scrubbed of politesse, nobody wants to say he went to the land of streets paved with gold to start all over again as a welfare leech. Even if he doesn’t make it big, he wants to show he was a man - he did his best, but it wasn’t in the cards. This, plus all the immigrant small business owners and kin who have been taken to the cleaners by the Dems via a combo of assistance to rioters and looters (via revolving door apprehensions or just forcing cops to sit on their hands during the mayhem) and lockdowns could lead to an unsampled demo roaring this November. An Iowa college paper had a Bosnian Muslim coed declaring her intent to vote Trump despite disagreeing with him on many issues because her parents own a small business and Democrat policies aren’t helping them.

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3894272/posts

[Zhang Fei]

[D +6 and mid 80s for R support of Trump.]

---

My feeling is that a lot of these polls are wrong because the people doing them are stupid. Not stupid in the sense of not being able to do simple arithmetic, but too dumb to do this accurately. People who could do polls well exist. But they’re working on Wall Street making millions (or more) each and retiring in their 30’s and 40’s. Because unlike political polls, financial polls (i.e. stock and bond analyses) have tens of trillions of dollars riding on their accuracy.

[drop 50 and fire for effect]

I would love to believe you friend of a friends numbers, if Oregon is competitive, then Mr. Trump gets about 55% and the GOP would likely retake the House and pick up several Senate seats. I would love to believe them, but I dare not.

I cannot and will not do so for the sake of my mental health. Better to be prepared for a tight race and possible loss. However, if this best possible scenario did come to pass, I would quietly bask in my establishment co-workers disappointment and horror.

[DarthVader]

It’s there nonpartisan and scientific!

[catnipman]

1. after the first time watching a political TV ad, subsequent runs are ignored ... campaigns are wasting their money ... they only way a bazillion ads will be watched is if a bazillion different AND entertaining ads are produced ... any candidate with a BIG TV ad budget would do better allocating half the money for ad production and half the money for advertising time ...

2. i doubt if campaign junk mail is ever read at all by anyone ...

[catnipman]

“Hard to believe the NJ, OR, VA, CO numbers but I guess we will see.”

there was one other poll that claimed that Gardner and Hickenlooper were tied for Senate; i found that hard to believe, but that’s consistent with DarthVadar’s numbers ...

[catnipman]

“This has made it difficult for Democrats to go door to door and mobilize their base”

actually, a couple of months ago the biden campaign (such as it is) proudly and publicly announced that there would be NO ground game ... that they were going 100% digital and virtual GOTV ...

apparently that didn’t work out too well, and they panicked and tried to cobble together a national ground GOTV campaign in the last couple of weeks, something that the Trump campaign has been building for over four years ...

[Zhang Fei]

[there was one other poll that claimed that Gardner and Hickenlooper were tied for Senate; i found that hard to believe, but that’s consistent with DarthVadar’s numbers ...]

---

Any small business owner with a storefront who’s witnessed the arson and looting, while Democratic pols either have cops stand by doing nothing or catch and release the perps, is fit to be tied. He’s thinking - that could be my business. My guess is that many of these people will vote Republican despite disagreeing with the GOP on many issues. Trump’s use of chinks and cracks in Federal law to go after the perpetrators of the mayhem and at least lock them up is likely seen as a godsend. And that will swing at least a chunk of vote in favor of the GOP. This Bosnian Muslim coed in Iowa is pro-Trump out of sheer necessity:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3894272/posts

[ought-six]

“there was one other poll that claimed that Gardner and Hickenlooper were tied for Senate;”

I had predicted three certain GOP senate losses: McSally (AZ); Collins (ME); and Gardner (CO). Possible GOP senate losses: Graham (SC); Ernst (IA). Certain GOP senate pick-ups: AL. Possible GOP pick-up: MI.

If the GOP holds the senate, it will likely be by no more than 2 (i.e., 51-49).

[Cottonhill]

He only lost Minnesota by 45,000 votes, 1.5% in 2016. He has given three rallies in Minnesota. The Iron Range has 8 mayors backing Trump. The mining, farming, shipping and manufacturing industries are all backing Trump. The Twin Cities have had riots. How can he be down?

[shelterguy]

So I have a friend who lives in the American part of the state, the area the Governor said is only full of rocks and cows.

They are really fired up about President Trump. The key is voter turnout. Turnout is historically low out there because they know the zillions of lib idiots in the Twin Cities control everything. Not this time. Trump in a landslide.

[DaxtonBrown]

” geography, age, gender, race and partisan identification via advertisements on websites “

Unless they also balanced for education the poll is worthless. The Iron Range miners are only 27% college educated. People most likely to take Internet polls are college educated.

[Cottonhill]

Turn those small town counties “deep blood red.”

[wareagle7295]

I had predicted three certain GOP senate losses: McSally (AZ); Collins (ME); and Gardner (CO). Possible GOP senate losses: Graham (SC); Ernst (IA). Certain GOP senate pick-ups: AL. Possible GOP pick-up: MI. Trump will drag Graham over the finish line. Honestly, anyone voting for Trump is not going to want a Dem Senator, no matter how sh*tty Graham has been. Period. I think Ernst will likewise win due to Trump winning that state. Much has been written about McSally, and all I will say is she barely lost(or was stolen from) in the 2018 'blue wave'. Again, if Republican turn out in Arizona stays on track like it has in early voting, I think Trump wins the state by roughly the same percentage as last time and pulls McSally over.

[catnipman]

Graham’s not going to lose ...

[Osage Orange]

Polls are not News....