Posted on 10/21/2020 1:23:58 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
Forty-nine percent of likely Minnesota voters support former Vice President Joe Biden, while 44 percent support President Donald Trump, a poll by Change Research commissioned by MinnPost finds.
The online poll was conducted among 1,021 likely voters in Minnesota last week, from Oct. 12 to Oct. 15, and the results’ margin of sampling error is 3.1 percentage points.
Separated by just five points and within the margin of error, this represents the closest the two presidential candidates have been in a recent public poll.
Recent polling
Fewer pollsters have surveyed Minnesota lately compared to in August and early September, when the state had a brief flirtation with national media outlets as a more than remote possibility for flipping from blue to red. On Aug. 31, FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 69 percent chance of winning the state, giving Trump a little less than a third, the closest the site has had the race before or since.
More recently, pundits have placed Minnesota in the much more likely blue column. As of Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 92 percent chance of winning the state, his highest odds since the race began. The site’s polling average put Biden at 50.7 percent, compared to Trump’s 41.6 percent — a spread of 9.1 points. Polls done in September and October have suggested Biden ahead by as little as 4 points and as many as 17.
Some recent polls suggest the race may be tightening as Election Day nears, though. A SurveyUSA poll released in early October found Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points, a slightly larger margin than the one in the MinnPost/Change Research poll, compared to 9 points in early September.
Change Research’s methodology involves targeting survey takers based on geography, age, gender, race and partisan identification via advertisements on websites and on
(Excerpt) Read more at minnpost.com ...
Thanks for posting. Make sure. Sometimes you gotta do it twice.
Ready - Aim - Vote
The ONLY task at hand. STAY FOCUSED.
Just have to get over the hump of all the Somalis that were paid to cast their votes for Biden.
Interesting—thanks.
Hard to believe the NJ, OR, VA, CO numbers but I guess we will see.
I have some relatives living there who have been totally influenced by one of their liberal universities. The wife certainly wasn’t raised that way.
Four years ago my liberal friends here in Minnesota mocked me when I said that I wasn’t going to say Trump was going to win Minnesota, but I believed it was within a point or two of being a dead heat. The President lost MN by 1.5% - a state that hasn’t gone Republican in a generation. This year I’ve never seen so many Trump signs. I would guess there are 15 Trump signs to every Biden one I see in the southwestern part of the state and that’s a conservative estimate. Friends in the traditional democrat stronghold of the Iron Range (northeast MN) are telling similar stories. My gut instincts are telling me that Trump pulls off a win here by 1 to 2%. It is crazy to think it is even that close but in the Twin Cities you can’t fix stupid.
Not hard to believe these are the results of large samples of likely voters. Look at what has been going on in those states.
Is Trump winning anywhere?
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE |
Clinton (D)
|
Trump (R)
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election Results | -- | -- | -- | 46.4 | 44.9 | Clinton +1.5 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 10/22 - 10/25 | 656 LV | 3.9 | 53 | 42 | Clinton +11 |
| Star Tribune* | 10/20 - 10/22 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 47 | 39 | Clinton +8 |
| Gravis* | 9/23 - 9/23 | 906 LV | 3.3 | 43 | 43 | Tie |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 9/16 - 9/20 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 49 | 43 | Clinton +6 |
| Star Tribune* | 9/12 - 9/14 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 44 | 38 | Clinton +6 |
| Star Tribune*** | 4/25 - 4/27 | 800 RV | 3.5 | 48 | 35 | Clinton +13 |
| Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon | 1/18 - 1/20 | 800 RV | 3.5 | 43 | 38 | Clinton +5 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 10/29 - 11/2 | 516 RV | 4.4 | 42 | 45 | Trump +3 |
| PPP (D) | 7/30 - 8/2 | 1015 RV | 3.1 | 44 | 39 | Clinton +5 |
I think Trump can flip both Minnesota and New Mexico this year.
Is Trump winning anywhere?
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE |
Clinton (D)
|
Trump (R)
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election Results | -- | -- | -- | 46.4 | 44.9 | Clinton +1.5 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 10/22 - 10/25 | 656 LV | 3.9 | 53 | 42 | Clinton +11 |
| Star Tribune* | 10/20 - 10/22 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 47 | 39 | Clinton +8 |
| Gravis* | 9/23 - 9/23 | 906 LV | 3.3 | 43 | 43 | Tie |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 9/16 - 9/20 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 49 | 43 | Clinton +6 |
| Star Tribune* | 9/12 - 9/14 | 625 LV | 4.0 | 44 | 38 | Clinton +6 |
| Star Tribune*** | 4/25 - 4/27 | 800 RV | 3.5 | 48 | 35 | Clinton +13 |
| Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon | 1/18 - 1/20 | 800 RV | 3.5 | 43 | 38 | Clinton +5 |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA | 10/29 - 11/2 | 516 RV | 4.4 | 42 | 45 | Trump +3 |
| PPP (D) | 7/30 - 8/2 | 1015 RV | 3.1 | 44 | 39 | Clinton +5 |
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris deserve 0 electoral votes. What did THEY ever do to earn 1?
Biden up 5 in MN?!?
Bwahahahahahaha hahahaha hahah
Never seen such stupidity, and I thought 16’s polling was dumb.
Trump is going to win MN..
Trump is going to outperform his 2016 numbers across the board...
He is going to take most if not all states he lost by less than 5 points and, don’t be surprised if he picks off a few he lost by more than 5.
The only question I have election night is will the Dems hold the house...
5pt. difference and the MOE is 3.1? Hw is that within the MOE?
[The President lost MN by 1.5% - a state that hasn’t gone Republican in a generation.]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Minnesota
Dubya came close, but not as close as Trump. All this stuff about “Minnesota nice” being an obstacle to Trump is hogwash. Minnesotans are nice, not stupid.
Once again, I hope your friend is correct, and thanks for posting.
> FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 92 percent chance of winning the state
Meaningless. If he’s wrong then, “Oh we were right but this was an aberration that fell in the 8 percent.”
Maybe the folks in Lake Dough-be-Gone (formally Lake Wobegon) are starting to wake up.
Find the Venetian blinds they sleep on as bunk
beds and roll ‘em up
“”””DJT needs to sked a rally in MN.”””
He needs to show up on a cold day wearing a SkiDoo or Arctic Cat jacket. He would win in a landslide.
“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris deserve 0 electoral votes. What did THEY ever do to earn 1?”
They have a shot at Delaware.
If TV commercials mean anything, Biden is blasting away on the local channels in Mpls-St Paul as well as the cable channels. My best guess is that Biden’s outnumber Trump’s by at least 3-1 or 4-1.
Out in my third ring suburb of Minneapolis, I’m not seeing much of a ground game by the Democrats. A few scattered lit drops by a local Dem who’s running for re-election for state rep.
P.S. we have a guy out here who’s quite conservative and is running for state rep. he has a chance - but could use a few more bucks. Freepmail me if you want his name and website.
My wife has gotten a number of mailers touting the Democrats and repeating their mantra that every Republican wants to take away their health care. I have not. I suspect the Dems are heavily targeting the suburban women vote.
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