Posted on 10/21/2020 5:51:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 527,836
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 486,797
Combined (VBM+IPEV):
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
I think they are done. They need 180,000 and there is no reason to think Rs in IPEV won’t crush it again tomorrow, although in the last hour they faded a tad (I thought we’d get to a +100,000 today).
Thanks much. I added this poll to the U.S. Senate thread, and I found another (campaign poll) from last month where Lewis was down only two. So this isn’t a one-hit wonder.
Where are you getting the Sarasota and Miami Dade IPEV numbers at the end of the day?
This is from the TV station site:
Yeah I saw that go to a clerk’s office to fill out a ballot. Different so maybe some people leery of that process.
Awesome. That merits its own thread. Mind if I do, with a hat tip to you?
Republican closed the turnout gap by 50 basis points today.
Down to 8% differential from 8.5%.
FL is a week behind GA and NC.
Unfortunately a lot of red counties shut down early voting at 5 or 6. All the blue counties stay open until 7.
I’d appreciate it if you did. You would just be saving me the trouble and since I am new at starting threads, I struggle. No need to give me credit. I appreciate what all of you do here.
Happy to share what I find.
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
This is all I have. They’re updated in the morning. I won’t know today’s numbers until then. I’m just guessing Miami-Dade’s numbers from today’s Broward numbers.
Even so, the lead has remained at 87,800.
Gaming this out as I like to do:
Suppose Ds end VBM up 653k.
2016, 55% of Rs who voted in person did so IPEV and 45% of Rs who voted in person did so on ED.
That means, ideally, Rs will erase 55% of D VBM loead, with IPEV lead of 359k.
Rs lead IPEV by 87k over 3 days. That is 29k average over 3 days. 29k * 14 days = 406k Add in another 50k for R counties not voting yet. That could be 450k. Beating 359k by 91k. That looks promising.
If you just look at last 2 days of IPEV. The R IPEV average is a whopping 41k. 41k * 14 days = 574k. Add in another 50k for R counties not voting yet. That could be 624k! That would “almost” wipe out the entire D VBM lead.
If that happened, it would be “over” to quote Larry.
Time will tell. I hope your gaming plays out!
In trying to figure out what’s the “right” gap to expect, take a look at this poll that had Biden+1:
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLFallOct2020.pdf
Says the EV breakdown is -
Election Day: R - 37%, D - 12%, NPA - 29%
IPEV: 24% R, 32% D, 33% NPA
VBM: 37% R, 55% D, 37% NPA
Obviously IPEV seems way off. I’m sure there’s a model in there somewhere, but I have to come back to it a little later to work out the math.
This is the most front-loaded early voting election ever. Comparing this election to 2016 is almost impossible. What’s clear is this: unless the Democrats have an army of millennials and young progressives being held in reserve, who will shock the world And come out to the polls on election day, I think we are in good shape.
UNF has bad history ask Rich Baris!! They had Gillum and Nelson winning. Rich does not give them much credence!
Yes Speedy Here is some of the Red Counties that have not started EV and their Round Number of GOPers over Dems in each:
Baker....... 6k More GOP starts Oct 22nd
Bay....... 40k More GOP starts Oct 24th
Columbia.... 9k More GOP starts Oct 22nd
Glades...... 1k More GOP starts Oct 24th
Gulf.......2.5K More GOP starts Oct 24th
Hardee...... 2k More GOP starts Oct 22nd
Highlands...13K More GOP starts Oct 22nd
Suwannee.... 7k More GOP starts Oct 24th
Union....... 2k More GOP starts Oct 24th
Walton......26K More GOP starts Oct 24th
These are just GOP does not include Indies!
The earlier shut down time makes a difference!! None of the Red Counties stay open until 7pm which means most GOPers come early or wait for another time instead of going around 5PM. 87K was outstanding....
Good, because I just did a deep dive and found that their data doesn’t match up to reality.
But we’re all here because we like tea leaf reading, so I did my best with it.
I’m not linking this from the main website. But here’s my analysis and attempt at deriving a magic number on my own.
https://github.com/joeisdone/joeisdone.github.io/blob/master/FloridaPrediction.md
TL;DR - ~500K combined IPEV + VBM lead assuming 2016 turnouts. And “Advantage Biden +8” or better on the Florida EV website (all EV, not just the default IPEV view) is good for us.
FYI, many big R counties in FL do not have EV on 11/1, while all of the big Democrat counties.
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