Skip to comments.Florida Early Vote update, 10/21/2020
Posted on 10/21/2020 5:51:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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Random people reading our posts must have a good laugh.
Small-Towners are more likely to vote on election DAY.
Please consider, that in VBM, there are MANY ballots that are NEVER returned.
Little known fact, Dr. Ravi actually delivered himself at birth.
We had VBM in Colorado in 2016, 20% of the registered voters, did not vote at all. Keep that in mind.
Does in person voting happen on Saturday and Sunday? If so, when the additional R counties come on line and we get a lag day on the mail, Rs should put a big dent in the net D edge.
In Colorado, 2016 (was already VBM) almost 700,000 voters never voted at all.
If you assume same level of interest, and consider Floridas much larger population, Approximately 2 million Florida voters will not vote at all.I predict a very fast drop off in early votes coming in.
“Does in person voting happen on Saturday and Sunday? If so, when the additional R counties come on line and we get a lag day on the mail, Rs should put a big dent in the net D edge.”
IPEV does happen on the weekend.
I think it would be Monday’s official report that we see Sunday’s IPEV bulge up and little VBM.
With byecomey’s map, we will see that effect in real time on Sunday.
18.4% did not return VBM ballot in FL in 2016.
So similar to CO.
Facts: Born in Cook County (IL), Lived in Douglas County (CO)
MI doesnt really have IPEV. Only absentee ballots. You can go to a clerks office and get one and fill it in and turn in the same day - first time ever for that here but many are leery.
Huge Trump flag and banner rally today in Shelby Twp in Macomb County. Many Trump signs everywhere here. Only one Biden sign I have seen.
Just a reminder of the enemy within:
This is a surprise. Minnesota
KSTP/SURVEYUSA: Tina Smith 43%; Jason Lewis 42%; 12% undecided; 3% people other. Confidence Interval +/- 5%.
Smith had 11-point lead in September and 7-point lead earlier this month.
Preview of tomorrows combined VBM+IPEV number (subject to Miami/Sarasota and final updates). Miami probably adds to D lead a bit. Reduced from 15.9 points to 11 points with 3 days of IPEV.
10/22/20: REPs - 1,431,518, DEMs - 1,891,599, lead of 460,081 for DEMs, 45.4% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Coop likes that.
Not a surprise at all! But this is one poll I do appreciate, as well as the ping, Speedy.
Broward added 9876 today to VBM so Miami-Dade probably will be around that. Either way, good net reduction today.
The Repubs led by about 41K in IPEV when today started, yes? And now they’re at about 87K. An increase of 46K in one day if I am recalling correctly. I’ll take another 10 days of that, please!
I am not able to find this poll. Do you have a link?
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