Good, because I just did a deep dive and found that their data doesn’t match up to reality.
But we’re all here because we like tea leaf reading, so I did my best with it.
I’m not linking this from the main website. But here’s my analysis and attempt at deriving a magic number on my own.
https://github.com/joeisdone/joeisdone.github.io/blob/master/FloridaPrediction.md
TL;DR - ~500K combined IPEV + VBM lead assuming 2016 turnouts. And “Advantage Biden +8” or better on the Florida EV website (all EV, not just the default IPEV view) is good for us.
FYI, many big R counties in FL do not have EV on 11/1, while all of the big Democrat counties.
If I am reading the map correctly, only five counties are advantage Biden: Leon, Alachua, Duval, Orange, and Seminole.
Does that mean that the 5 counties above are the only ones where Democrats are turning out with stronger relative force (compared to 2016) in IPEV?
In the other 50 or so, Republicans are chipping away at the turnout advantage Democrats gained (and are still gaining) in VBM.