Posted on 10/21/2020 5:51:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 527,836
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 486,797
Combined (VBM+IPEV):
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Agreed. Need a few more days like today.
That being said, it does seem like we are pacing very well given my mental goal was to tie up early voting.
I am going to try and track down 2016 turnout by county + voter registration and use that as a comparison instead of the current Clinton/Trump split which will give a much more balanced view. (Or maybe in addition to Clinton/Trump split).
Four of seven won by Trump. TX is already at 60% of the 2020 vote? Amazing.
That would be nice to compare but sounds like more work on your part. I would imagine the archived county ballot files has the early vote/mail data for 2016. Book closing statistics are readily available also.
Looking like the flip may occur soon!
Yes. LOL.
Hillary jinxed it for Kamala when she posted her photo with caption: “next Vice President”. Just as Hillary posted her own photo in 2016 with the caption: “happy birthday to the next President”. One didn’t happen and one won’t happen.
“That being said, it does seem like we are pacing very well given my mental goal was to tie up early voting.”
If we get within 300k at the end of EV, that is a good achievement for ED.
Tie up? I’d say highly unlikely. But again, this is 2020.
Sorry, I meant tie up IPEV.
The mental model I had in mind for JoeIsDone was:
Dems vote: 55% VBM, 20% IPEV, 25% Election Day
Reps vote: 20% VBM, 20% IPEV, 50% Election Day
If we were within 300K and still had half our votes outstanding on ED it would be a route
Almost to 100000 R+ margin today in IPEV
This may be the sleeper. Adding it to my prayer list.
The Top 10 Democrat counties make up 64% of the total Democrat registered voters. Of those 10 counties, 20% of registered Democrats already voted (1,074,291). Essentially, one-third of the Democrats in the Top 10 counties have already voted (20/64).
Those same counties represent only 50% of registered Republican votes. 11.9% of registered Republicans voted in those counties (613,696), making it about 20% of the Republican voters in the Top 10 counties.
So, in the Top 10 Democrat counties, there are about 80% outstanding Republican votes (1,955,718) to 67% remaining Democrat votes (2,329,089).
-PJ
My daughter and her husband are two of the new under 29 voters. They voted elsewhere is 2016
Good data!
2018 an off year election. Like it or not, those are different a we learned with 2010 vs. 2012.
Also, 40 GOP retirements; 30 seats decided by under 2 points; 20 decided by under 1.
That’s a lot of,er, shit to over come.
Kamala’s husband says ‘I am married to the next President of the United States’
https://twitter.com/AbdiPopulist/status/1318960624618016768
Best poll I’ve seen for Ernst in IA since, ever...
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319003258925518849
#IAsen:
Ernst (R-inc) 51% (+5)
Greenfield (D) 46%
@EmersonPolling, LV, With leaners, 10/19-21
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-biden
Good to know!
Honestly, if Ernst is up 5, Trump is up like 7. Iowa is just one of those states that hasn’t had a large demographic change and the only group I could see remotely moving from Trump to Biden would be the seniors and I don’t think it would be nearly enough to flip that state.
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