Posted on 10/21/2020 5:51:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 527,836
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 486,797
Combined (VBM+IPEV):
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Treadmill time...
There is no previous measure really to measure that! There was NO COVID in 2016 the comparison is hard to make!! You are not seeing New Dems just Dems petrified to vote in person!!
I cannot stress enough that these are not New Dems just the Dems you would see coming out late on Election Night holding FLORIDA BEING CALLED as they recount Palm and Broward!! I have dealt with these 2 counties for decades!!
This idea of HUGE VBM is not valid from my experience with FL numbers on a statewide basis! The Dem leadership PUSHED already Registered Dems that have voted before to mail!!
Simple!! That is why it seems so big!! But it is law of DIMINISHING RETURNS!!
The Dems were NOT ACTIVE at all Registering Voters like we at the GOP were and that is showing in MIAMI!
The Dems are using the same pool...the GOP expanded their POOL...90 percent of Dems fear Covid....about 30 percent of GOP....
I feel the Dems would need 800k to offset those 200k new voters we NETTED since 16...106k since Aug 2020 alone..
As well we find that about 12% or higher Dems will vote for Trump vs about 6% in reverse!!
Duval is looking good today. Red by tomorrow?
Vote NOOOO on amendment 3 which is for open primaries! we do not want that in FLA
I never said 652 win or 645 lose!! No it is not impressive at the Dem VBM!! I totally disagree with you! The eggs in one basket it clear!!
You can layout any arbitrary number you wish! But 653 is not SIGNIFICANT at all!! You are simply to low!
You are looking simply at DATA from 2016 but that does not match the environment in FL today in 2020!
Again all the numbers you are seeing are in reverse!! You keep referencing the DEMs are heading at 79% disagree! At the moment yes....but that percentage will fall...it is diminishing returns and CANNIBALIZATION!!
In 2016, the Republican v. Democrat turnout was 81.2% to 74.4%.
What do you expect this year in Florida?
Simply smashing. Do you have overall EV ratios?
If so, with your permission, I’d like to publish these historical ratios on JoeIsDone (and credit you).
Amazing.
I don’t know if this is useful, but...I’m poll watching in Seminole, Longwood Hunt Club library. Monday the surrender rate of VBM ballots was every other voter at times and steady all day. Today with a steady line but lesser waits, there have been 16 all day. The VBM drop box was emptied at noon on Monday with about 400 ballots. Today the clerk didn’t even both as there are hardly any drop offs inside.
Annnnd just like that the R IPEV lead is now 58,000!
Overall gap has been cut down from 487K to 471K . The website should be theoretically tracking VBM in real time too, but I don’t know what the county process for updating those is.
Doubtful. Duval Reps are notoriously lazy in voting early. They dug themselves quite a hole on the first day. Eventually they will though.
Note: A couple counties start IPEV tomorrow such has Highlands and Columbia. Another decent size county Bay starts on Saturday.
I am dubbing that phenomenon the “big blue wad syndrome.”
Thank you for the info and especially for poll watching.
Any idea how many of the early voters are typical election day voters? New voter registration?
Ha! Hang in there. I love your numbers, couldn’t do anything without them.
I think we’re closing like a rocket.
Every 30 minutes another 3000 +R IPEV number, lol.
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