Florida Early Vote update, 10/21/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/21/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Florida Update:

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 527,836

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039

Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 486,797

Combined (VBM+IPEV):

10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%

10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%

[byecomey]

Agreed. Need a few more days like today.

That being said, it does seem like we are pacing very well given my mental goal was to tie up early voting.

I am going to try and track down 2016 turnout by county + voter registration and use that as a comparison instead of the current Clinton/Trump split which will give a much more balanced view. (Or maybe in addition to Clinton/Trump split).

[Coop]

Four of seven won by Trump. TX is already at 60% of the 2020 vote? Amazing.

[Ravi]

That would be nice to compare but sounds like more work on your part. I would imagine the archived county ballot files has the early vote/mail data for 2016. Book closing statistics are readily available also.

[Rumierules]

Looking like the flip may occur soon!

[Ravi]

Yes and check these tidbits out about TX.

4.3 million votes (using TargetSmart). They are about 1 million votes behind just in 1 day! However I imagine data has changed much from this morning to this afternoon.

7.1% 1st time voters (it was 7.8% in 2016 at this point when there were only 630,000 ballots cast). Only 7.1% new voters after 4.5 million ballots cast in TX is an amazingly low number.

9.9% are in the 18 to 29 cohort (again amazingly low with 4.5 million votes).

This is probably why their "modeling" is quite favorable for us.

[plushaye]

Yes. LOL.

Hillary jinxed it for Kamala when she posted her photo with caption: “next Vice President”. Just as Hillary posted her own photo in 2016 with the caption: “happy birthday to the next President”. One didn’t happen and one won’t happen.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“That being said, it does seem like we are pacing very well given my mental goal was to tie up early voting.”

If we get within 300k at the end of EV, that is a good achievement for ED.

Tie up? I’d say highly unlikely. But again, this is 2020.

[byecomey]

Sorry, I meant tie up IPEV.

The mental model I had in mind for JoeIsDone was:

Dems vote: 55% VBM, 20% IPEV, 25% Election Day
Reps vote: 20% VBM, 20% IPEV, 50% Election Day

[wareagle7295]

If we were within 300K and still had half our votes outstanding on ED it would be a route

[struggle]

Almost to 100000 R+ margin today in IPEV

[cowboyusa]

This may be the sleeper. Adding it to my prayer list.

[Political Junkie Too]

I was looking for some other insights, so I decided to look at this from a "where the votes are" perspective. Maybe you've already got this backed into your numbers.

The Top 10 Democrat counties make up 64% of the total Democrat registered voters. Of those 10 counties, 20% of registered Democrats already voted (1,074,291). Essentially, one-third of the Democrats in the Top 10 counties have already voted (20/64).

Those same counties represent only 50% of registered Republican votes. 11.9% of registered Republicans voted in those counties (613,696), making it about 20% of the Republican voters in the Top 10 counties.

So, in the Top 10 Democrat counties, there are about 80% outstanding Republican votes (1,955,718) to 67% remaining Democrat votes (2,329,089).

-PJ

[Betty Jane]

My daughter and her husband are two of the new under 29 voters. They voted elsewhere is 2016

[SpeedyInTexas]

Good data!

[LS]

2018 an off year election. Like it or not, those are different a we learned with 2010 vs. 2012.

Also, 40 GOP retirements; 30 seats decided by under 2 points; 20 decided by under 1.

That’s a lot of,er, shit to over come.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Kamala’s husband says ‘I am married to the next President of the United States’

https://twitter.com/AbdiPopulist/status/1318960624618016768

[SpeedyInTexas]

Best poll I’ve seen for Ernst in IA since, ever...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319003258925518849

#IAsen:
Ernst (R-inc) 51% (+5)
Greenfield (D) 46%

@EmersonPolling, LV, With leaners, 10/19-21
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-biden

[Ravi]

Good to know!

[wareagle7295]

Honestly, if Ernst is up 5, Trump is up like 7. Iowa is just one of those states that hasn’t had a large demographic change and the only group I could see remotely moving from Trump to Biden would be the seniors and I don’t think it would be nearly enough to flip that state.

[Ravi]

Waiting for that final registration update on 11/2. The Reps have been padding their advantage over the past 3 months and I imagine it will increase further. One of the times I like the later registration close. We will not match our 2016 registration advantage however.

More 2020 craziness.
Extend Registration - Advantage Reps
Vote-by-mail -Advantage Dems (this was a pure Rep thing as recently as 2012/2016).
Early Voting - Advantage Reps
The states with OVR (online voter registration) had the biggest GOP gains this year - Advantage Reps