Posted on 10/06/2020 9:58:41 AM PDT by MplsSteve
One of the main reasons Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election is voters who disapproved of both Trump and his rival, Hillary Clinton, broke for Trump by about 18 percentage points.
"In the abstract, it’s something of a statistical quirk," the Washington Post's Philip Bump recently explained. "In practice, though, it might have given Trump the White House."
In contrast, Trump's party lost control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections due mainly to large numbers of voters who cast ballots for Trump just two years earlier switched sides and voted for Democrats — particularly college-educated white women.
Now, in a troubling sign for Trump's 2020 chances, all three groups — voters who disapprove of both candidates; voters who cast ballots for different parties in 2016 and 2018; and college-educated white women — are moving in Joe Biden's direction.
By partnering with YouGov to track the views of 13 key demographic groups (suburban voters, Latino voters, white seniors) across nine important metrics (vote intention, Trump approval, direction of the country), Yahoo News has identified a significant shift away from Trump over the last week — a period in which the president delivered a poorly received debate performance and was hospitalized with COVID-19.
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
You would believe an internet poll?
____________________
Thank you
Ah, early October.. The ChiComs pay their FR trolls to release crap polls in a last ditch drive to suppress conservative voters.
How many Trump has no chance posts does FR need?
The Chicoms and their elite Dems are wasting their money with their FR Trolls flooding FR with their B$ polls.
College educated means dumbed-down broads in my opinion these days.
It would make sense in a way given how Biden is running a top-notch media campaign with an uncontested monopoly on many networks. He completely controls the messaging - there are large segments of voters who hear from Biden and only Biden. They don’t watch debates, political talk shows, read FR, etc. They just watch classic TV on the subchannels.
LOL, yeah sure, Trump won the White House in 2016 because of college educated white women. Start that story with “once upon a time…“
Yep - college degrees after the year 2010 mostly aren’t worth the paper they are printed on. People are more ignorant and stupid after going to college for 4 years than they were going in. That didn’t use to be the case...the Left’s decades long project to completely infect and take over Academia has been a success...and we just let them do it. Same with the Arts, music, movies, etc. Very slow, patient, incremental steps...many didn’t live to see the fruits of their labor, but they were successful. Didn’t have to be this way. I don’t know how this can be reversed.
I took my probabilistic model for a spin this morning, running it through a Solver optimizing model to study the effect of over-sampling bias on the current polls.
Based on the state of polling today, President Trump's probability-weighted average is 201.7 Electoral College votes, with a 13% chance of winning.
However, if we take away 2.37% from Biden polls and give it to Trump, the election becomes tied at 269. Taking away 2.40% makes it a 270-268 Trump win, with a 51% chance of winning.
In order for President Trump to get his 2016 result of 306 Electoral College votes (ignoring faithless electors), 3.8% would have to be taken away from Biden and given to Trump. This gives Trump a 74% probability of winning.
The conclusion is this:
If you believe that the polls are grossly over-sampling Democrats, a 2.4% swing to Trump makes it a tied election, and a 3.8% swing gives Trump a 2016 victory, probabilistically.
The question to ask is if these swings fit one's sense of over-sampling correction or not?
-PJ
He did nothing wrong in the debate. It was obvious they were not going to let him repeat his ability to communicate in the current debates. Biden was allowed to throw out outrageous lies and slanders, and Wallace deliberately prevented any attempts to rebut. And every time Trump was answering a debate question in his normal debate style, Wallace continually interrupted and launched an argument.
Trump had no choice but to use a muscular overpowering, ignoring Wallace’s bullshit rules approach.
Remember a few short weeks ago, when Wallace had an interview with Trump? They had a long polite conversation. That was because Wallace asked a question and let Trump to answer.
Trump has zero obligation to stand there like a schoolboy and be completely shut out of debate by a biased moderator. He did the best possible thing in the game they threw at him. The only other alternative was to sit there and allow Biden to spread lies, and tolerate Wallace’s interference with a smile, and accept that utterly none of his thoughts out. IE, the Bush approach.
I think all polls but Trafalgar, Big Data, and Democracy Institute are worse than trash.
Follow the data.
Understood.
I didn’t even see the debate to be honest — to spare myself the anger. I’m only going off of hearsay. But it seems like people who already support Trump and don’t trust the media feel the way you do, and (moderate-ish) people who are anti-Trump but flexible as they’re iffy on Biden feel like neither did well.
I felt like Trump’s best debate performance was his second with Hillary Clinton in 2016. Forgot the host. But the format is also different in that candidates can address the audience and move around.
The polling coming out of the weekend has looked bad and events have put Trump on the defensive. The one thing I do remember is Biden getting dead bounce from his convention.
I didn’t watch the debate so I may be missing the tone of the debate, but did read the transcript.
Everyone was interrupting. Chris’ claims that Trump interrupted more was an infantile comment and completely incorrect. The only place Trump was over the top was near the end when he tried to talk about Biden and China. But the problem was Chris refused to let Trump talk about Hunter, saying it was unsubstantial. How is China not important?
At least twice I thought Chris was the Democrat candidate, providing fact checking on voter fraud for example.
Joe did better than expected if you take his comments as honest opinions of fact, which I don’t. He lied big time. In fact Joe was kind of snarky. And his basic defense of his policy and corruption was to call Trump a meanie and a liar.
I wouldn’t say Trump won, but he didn’t lose either. I have to conclude that the headlines that Trump failed are a completely manufactured narrative.
One thing I did notice was that the NBC poll was of registered voters, which is silly this close to the election. They must not have liked the results of the likely voter sample.
-PJ
I notice FR is being flooded today with doom’n’gloom articles from the DNC propaganda mill, otherwise known as the Ministry of Truth.
Best post of the day! +100%
Yes, the polls all seem to show that Trump won the debate.
That surprised me frankly. It was awfully hard to watch.
I thought most people had turned it off and concluded “it’s a draw, yuk!”
Fox hosts are still defending Wallace. The latest this morning was Stuart Varney.
Until parents refuse to pay for these worthless degrees, I don’t think anything can be done.
These college presidents make a lot of money, too. The President of AZ State University makes over $690,000.
I have it well documented (Trump killed him 63 to 70% winning in polls of 350-400 thousand) and it is backing the information I am getting from my pollster source. Look how Trump has pulled ads in Iowa and Ohio and diverting funds into other places in Biden territory. I got info last night that Trump had those two states comfortably locked up. Also confirmation of other things. The voter fraud is being dealt with by the courts and POTUS has some of the best Cyber warriors in the world.
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