Trump Clinton Popular vote 2,362,631 2,189,316 Percentage 49.83% 46.17%
Posted on 09/08/2020 8:30:43 PM PDT by OrangeHoof
To see where Trump and Biden are regarding the Electoral College and the race for 270 and the 2020 presidency, let's use the 2016 results as a starting point.
Trump could, in theory, concede every state that went to Hillary in 2016 and spot him 233 electoral votes. For those who want to plot this on a map, these are:
California (55 EV) New York (29) Illinois (20) New Jersey (14) Virginia (13) Washington (12) Massachusetts (11) Maryland (10) Minnesota (10) Colorado (9) Oregon (7) Connecticut (7) Nevada (6) New Mexico (5) Hawaii (4) New Hampshire (4) Rhode Island (4) Maine (4)* (note: Trump won 1 EV in 2016 here) Vermont (3) Delaware (3) Dist. of Columbia (3) Total: 20 states and 1 district.
What's vulnerable?:
* Minnesota - Will riots and mayhem be enough to flip this once-reliable blue state? Some think so.
* New Hampshire - Once an island of independence surrounded by blue neighbors, this is a state that is a 50-50 toss-up although Democrats have built some quiet momentum.
* Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico - These formerly red states have been taken over by Democrats who have passed things like mail-in voting and ballot harvesting. There's an outside chance they could flip red but I wouldn't expect it to happen.
For the purpose of this exercise, I'll give Biden everything Hillary won plus the extra electoral vote in Maine. Other than Minnesota and New Hampshire, these all seem pretty safely blue.
Now let's look at the 306 votes Trump won minus the one vote in Maine:
Texas (38) Florida (29) Pennsylvania (20) Ohio (18) Michigan (16) Georgia (16) North Carolina (15) Arizona (11) Indiana (11) Tennessee (11) Missouri (10) Wisconsin (10) Alabama (9) South Carolina (9) Kentucky (8) Louisiana (8) Oklahoma (7) Arkansas (6) Iowa (6) Kansas (6) Mississippi (6) Utah (6) Nebraska (5) West Virginia (5) Idaho (4) Alaska (3) Montana (3) North Dakota (3) South Dakota (3) Wyoming (3) Total: 30 states
* Florida - always close and hard fought, Trump and Republicans do have some advantages here. His adoptive home state should carry him as it did in 2016 but it may be a long night.
* Pennsylvania - Will Democrat hijinks overtake general disgust at lockdowns? A big turnout by the energy sector could spell the difference.
* Michigan - In the upset of 2016, Trump flipped a once-reliable blue state. His populism and pro-Americanism play very well here where they saw a jobs rebound few expected and Obama said would never return.
* Wisconsin - This is a hard state to judge because of the riots and because Democrats are trying to thwart Trump at every turn. Populism themes play well here as in Michigan.
* Arizona - Once reliably red, this state has been turning more blue as fleeing Californians move in. There are a lot of retirees here (as in Florida) so Trump will need to fend off accusations of wanting to end Social Security (a constant Democrat charge over the decades).
* North Carolina - They are like a mini-Florida. A lot of Yankee transplants have moved here and swung the state increasingly blue. I think Trump still plays strong here but he won't have the state support of friends in high places that he has in Florida.
So, now let's try some math and figure out how Trump's EV lead gets whittled down below 270. There are only two states which can be flipped and give the election outright to Biden - Texas and Florida. If the Dems take either state, it's close to "game over" but I don't think it will happened based on past elections.
Anything else will require Trump losing two or more states to fall to defeat. That's the good news.
Losing Pennsylvania would be huge and any combination of Pennsylvania and another state like Arizona, Michigan or Wisconsin tips the scales to Biden.
Losing Michigan with a combination of Arizona or Wisconsin gets the election so close to 270 that even Maine's vote could flip the election. God help us if the margin is this thin.
Winning Minnesota gives Trump an extra cushion. It would be hard to see Trump winning there yet losing in Wisconsin and/or Michigan. Likely, they will all go together.
The question isn't whether Democrats can gum up the works in states like California and New York. Those are already lost causes for Trump and won't affect his EV totals. What will need watching is the upper Midwest, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida as these will decide which party wins the White House. Biden will need to steal at least two states Trump won in 2016 and possibly three if he surrenders Minnesota.
Rather than stressing over the polls, many of which are fake, see the real challenge ahead for both parties - that Biden has to hold what he has plus steal a couple of states Hillary didn't win. It's 51 elections, not one.
chicagod dems collude with madistan and southeast wisconsin dems to bus illinois people up to vote and ‘find’ ballots
dane county always comes in last because thats where they stuff the most fale ballots
The Democrats are setting their sights on North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, and Arizona but Biden has absolutely no chance in those states. At the same time Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are still solidly Trump States. To compound problems for Biden, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey and maybe even New York could be moving to Trump.
Election night will be over by 7:00 CST in the same manner we knew the election outcome in 1984.
“Election night will be over by 7:00 CST in the same manner we knew the election outcome in 1984.”
Amen. Amen! AMEN!
My prediction as well. :)
l8r
I see trump with 381 electoral votes
Trump needs to sit in the upper midwest & Pennsylvania. Forget NH & Nevada...going to be close but no cigar in those two states. Go all out for Minnesota; which I suspect is a real get for him.
Trump Clinton Popular vote 2,362,631 2,189,316 Percentage 49.83% 46.17%
Colorado—with a Dem governor and lax pot laws and full of transplant Californians—is, amazingly, reopening schools.
I think that’s a metric to watch: the states that reopens schools are going for Trump. The states that don’t (I’m in CA and we will be the last to reopen schools in the PLANET) are going for Biden.
Here in CA, I don’t see how Oregon and WA are moving to Trump. . .at one point they were making an evil trifecta “pact” to all stay closed down.
Watch school reopenings. . . states and counties that re-open schools are Trump areas.
You’re dreaming, but I hope you’re right.
How does President Trump NOT WIN more support and more votes after the completion of the three upcoming presidential debates?
Good question but I suspect both sides will be trotting out October Surprises and other gotchas that we aren’t aware of yet. They could change the equation.
Florida has replaced the election officers in a couple of the worst run voting districts. That should help.
Florida has replaced the election officers in a couple of the worst run voting districts. That should help.
Florida has replaced the election officers in a couple of the worst run voting districts. That should help.
Which states, by refusing to appoint their Electors, will tip the majority of appointed Electors to the Electoral College to Biden?
-PJ
I researched this a week or so ago. There's no precedent as to what happens to the votes of a state that doesn't submit their slate of electors by the deadline because it's never happened. My gut tells me they aren't included and the equation is reset to 50% of the remaining electoral votes. In other words, if a state decides to disenfranchise their voters, that state is left out of the process. Let's say it's Pennsylvania with 20 EV. The total changes from 538 EVs to 518 EVs and makes the new threshold for election 260 votes rather than 270. But I have no certainty that this will happen. I'm guessing SCOTUS might have to get involved.
I'm asking, with the math you've presented, what if a state knows that President Trump wins the EC with their votes, but if they choose to withhold then Biden wins?
For example...
What if in 2016, Trump lost Pennsylvania (20 EV) and Wisconsin (10 EV)? That would have made the Electoral College 276-262, and Trump would still have won.
Now suppose that Michigan (16 EV), which Trump won 47.6% to 47.4%, politically chose to delay certifying the vote and not send their Electors to the Electoral College. This would have made the Electoral Vote 262-260 Clinton in an Electoral College with only 522 appointed Electors. The threshold to win would have been a majority of APPOINTED Electors, or 262.
Clinton would have won in 2016 in this scenario, because Michigan chose to withhold their 16 Trump Electors from participating in the Electoral College.
That's the scorched earth scenario I'm looking for.
-PJ
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