Posted on 06/30/2020 6:50:28 AM PDT by Hostage
The difference implies that the virus is much less deadly than it looks, but it also makes contact tracing a daunting challenge.
Newly published antibody test results from half a dozen parts of the country confirm that COVID-19 infections in the United States far outnumber confirmed cases. The ratio of estimated infections to known cases in these studies, which the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported on Friday, range from 6 to 1 in Connecticut as of early May to 24 to 1 in Missouri as of late April.
These results confirm something we already knew: The COVID-19 infection fatality rate—deaths as a share of all infections—is much lower than the crude case fatality rate—deaths as a share of known cases. That is bound to be true when testing is limited and a virus typically produces mild or no symptoms. At the same time, the CDC's antibody studies imply that efforts to control the epidemic through testing, isolation, quarantine, and contact tracing will not be very effective, since they reach only a small percentage of virus carriers.
The CDC analyzed blood samples drawn for routine tests unrelated to COVID-19 from patients in New York City, Connecticut, South Florida, Missouri, Utah, and western Washington state. Although these samples may not be representative of the general population, they provide a clearer picture of virus prevalence than screening limited to people who sought virus tests because they had symptoms consistent with COVID-19 or because they were in close contact with known carriers.
People who are coming out as their state reopens are getting tested. Those testing positive for the coronavirus AND antibodies (IgM and IgG) show they HAVE and HAD the coronavirus because of the detection of antibodies.
Basics
There are two tests:
Important to understand that a person recently testing positive for the virus does not mean the person recently contracted the virus.
Important to understand that a person testing positive for antibodies may still test positive for the virus and vice versa.
The false narrative ignores the antibody test results and reports a 'NEW SURGE' in cases caused in states that are reopening.
The left must keep states locked down to argue mandatory mail-in voting allowing them to cheat their way to power.
The 'NEW SURGE' in cases is not new, they are mostly old cases of people now coming out and getting tested for the first time.
Such people were likely asymptomatic (or mild symptoms) and never got tested because they didn't know they had the coronavirus. They likely picked it up from an infected family member and never got sick as their immune systems reacted to stop the virus from progressing to COVID-19. But they test positive both for the virus and for antibodies.
Here's an easy to remember summary (Coronavirus = SARS-COV-2):
POSITIVE FOR SARS-COV-2 + POSITIVE FOR ANTIBODIES = OLD CASE
States that have halted their reopenings must further test positive cases for antibodies.
As states reopen and more people and businesses come out of lockdown, the question for test results is: "Are the recent positive cases NEW infections or OLD infections?"
Amazing that 3 1/2 months into all of this COVID panic and fear mongering, some are only now coming to this realization, and some are still insisting that it is many, many times deadlier than the flu.
it’s the flu, bro.
‘and some are still insisting that it is many, many times deadlier than the flu.’
there was some nut on this website last night who insisted that a year in prison and a $5,000 fine was appropriate response to someone not wearing a mask in public, on the basis that somebody (gasp) might get sick...it’s not even fathomable to me how this country has become such a bunch of pansies...
The COVID-19 virus is acting more and more like the influenza and common cold viruses.
It IS in that family. FWIW it is transmitted through the respitory system not the digestive system just like other such virus. Media loves the scam because they want hurt trump.
And 20 years ago, how did you confirm a totally asymptomatic case?
YOU DIDN'T!
You couldn't without a PCR and an antibody test. Mass PCR and antibody testing of individuals who weren't frankly sick simply wasn't available.
Only people with full blow cases who were sick enough to see a doctor ever got counted in the denominator.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HUMAN HISTORY we are counting people who were never, ever actually sick with a given disease in the denominator to calculate that disease's fatality rate.
There can be no meaningful comparison to any historical pandemic from this point on.
You can tell your grandchildren that you were there the day the universe changed....
After 3 1/2 months of the Useful Idiot media feeding false information about Wuhan ...
Same for the political mess they created.
Good to point this out, but this is exactly what the CDC and others have been telling us for a while now. The media just chose not to really report on it. The Case Fatality Rate was 5.7%. However, the CDC told us a month ago that the actual Infection Fatality Rate had a lower bound of 0.26% (http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3848180/posts) and Johns Hopkins told us the likely IFR is somewhere between 0.5% and 1% (http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3855890/posts).
All that came out at the end of May. The media ignored it, because it’s not as exciting to cover and it makes the whole story less exciting, but we’ve known that for a long time. That said, it’s still serious. Even if we assume a very low herd immunity value (let’s say 50%, which is extremely low given how contagious this has proven to be), that means 165 million Americans eventually get it (without a vaccine). 0.26% of 165 million is 429,000. The Johns Hopkins 1% of 165 million would be 1.65 million. This is why President Trump is pushing so hard for the vaccine. Without it, we’re set to lose a whole lot more people by the end of this thing.
It sounds like the Democrats are running out of time to get their “cheat by mail” imposed. The “surge” includes about 8 states and they seem to be peaking right now. That means their new case rates will fall soon.
I agree with you and have stated this everywhere i go. But you cannot reason with people who have divorced themselves from reason.
Tell me about it!
Where was that picture taken, and when? I’d like to have that info when a family member asks me. I’d like to share this with them, and be able to have the information. Thanks.
...implies that the virus is much less deadly than it looks, but it also makes contact tracing a daunting challenge.
Maybe because it is a common cold virus
If they can riot, why can’t we rally?
If they can loot, why can’t we shop?
If they can burn, why can’t we earn?
If they can slay, why can’t we pray?
If they can throw Molotov cocktails, why can’t we throw cocktail parties?...
Just go look on the Internet for all kinds of images of protest gatherings, Floyd funeral crowds, etc.
Well, I know they’re out there, but those don’t have the word graphics of yours. I was just hoping to be specific, but I guess I won’t need to be.
I didn’t create the graphic. You can put the words to any of the liberal gatherings.
If you are fighting a literal family, you have lost the argument. Liberals use literal when you use emotion and they use emotion when you go literal.
Just say, if you idiots can protest and riot and loot then so can we.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.