Posted on 05/27/2020 2:58:38 AM PDT by JohnRand
Earlier this month, the University of Minnesota School of Public Health released projections from a revised coronavirus computer model that said deaths might double by Memorial Day.
That didn’t happen.
In fact, to a layman, it doesn’t even look close.
Minnesota Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm and a key official involved in the model both acknowledged Tuesday that the short-term death projections of the model are notably higher than the reality — but both defended the value of the model.
(Excerpt) Read more at twincities.com ...
SEE-B-S this morning is on the warpath. 100,000 deaths - WORSE THAN ANY WAR! LOTS OF CHARTS AND GRAPHS! WORST PRESIDENT SINCE HOOVER!
Their ‘expert’ felt compelled to tell ‘whoever is in a leadership position’ how to do his job...but didn’t mention any names. *Rolleyes*
Veiled pimping of Biden because HE would’ve lead us through this (manufactured) CRISIS so much BETTER than Orange Man!
The Enemy Media is SCUM!
It was the Dwaths and the Elths who teamed up to defeat the Orths in Lord of the Rings. :)
What is interesting is that in politically-charged issues, the models always seem to be wrong in the same direction.
In real science, modeling is a useful tool, and when models are first developed, they’re almost always pretty sloppy - but sloppy in a general way, so that some give results that are too high, some too low, so that as they are “sharpened up”, they usually converge close enough to reality to be of some use.
But “climate change” models always run hot - of the several score that are prominent all (or maybe all but one Russian one) always predict temperatures that are too high, and often way too high.
And from what I’ve seen, the same is true of the pandemic models - they always run “morbid” - every one I’ve come across predicts more deaths - and often way more deaths - than actually occur.
And when the models don’t fail in both directions, that suggests either the modelers all accept erroneous assumptions they refuse to correct, or that they’ve deliberately got their thumbs on the scale for some reason other than the search for truth.
My mother in law from my first wife died 3 weeks ago. We weren’t allowed to visit her for almost a month. She died all alone in a single room. We can’t even have a memorial for her yet.
Thanks Governor Creosote.
L
swine flu has killed up to 17,000 in U.S.: report
HEALTH NEWS FEBRUARY 12, 2010 / 11:18 AM / 10 YEARS AGO
H1N1 swine flu has killed as many as 17,000 Americans, including 1,800 children, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday...
ACCURATE ESTIMATES
The CDC and the World Health Organization stopped trying to count all the actual cases months ago, once it became clear that H1N1 was a pandemic that would infect millions...
Sweden is not doing so well if we read the article.
“There is no full lockdown of Sweden, but many parts of the Swedish society have shut down.”
Wonder if this means there are a lot of areas in Sweden that is locking down.
“According to the AP, the country is reporting one of the highest mortality rates from the virus of any country”
I wonder if this means Sweden has the highest death rate compare to any other country in the world.
“And figures from Our World In Data, an online research publication based at the University of Oxford, indicated that Sweden recorded the most coronavirus deaths in Europe per capita over the seven days from May 12 to May 19.”
Define Per Capita Merriam-Websters: per unit of population : by or for each person
So does this mean Sweden has the most coronavirus deaths in Europe per million people over the seven days from May 12 to May 19.
“The country’s unemployment rate stands at 7.9% and is expected to continue to rise.”
Is the unemployment rate rising because Sweden lock down or did not lock down?
Data from Worldometer:
Sweden population: 10 Million
Sweden Deaths per 1M pop: 418
USA population: 330 Million with a higher population density in big cites like New York. The virus likes highly density cities. Sweden does not have highly populated cities like New York
USA Deaths per 1M pop: 304
Which is a better number for Deaths per 1M. The USA at 304 with lockdowns or Sweden with no national lockdown (note some areas shutdown without government orders) at 418.
Additionally we will see an increase in cancer, heart disease, and suicide deaths as a result of the focus on CV19 and a lack of care for other ailments.
China’s ‘Monkey King’ predicts Donald Trump WILL WIN the US presidential election
They should have asked Monkey King
“Couldn’t possibly be that the models were all wrong to begin with.”
The law of averages says at least some of the modeling would have been right but amazingly ALL of it was wrong with the Ferguson Model which was used by Fauci and Birx resulting in the country being shut down being the worst of all of them.
No doubt in my mind the shutdown was purely agenda driven.
i’ll bite....
..because they wanted to be?
Dismissive phrasing. It's not that the emperor doesn't have any cloths, it's that you, peasant, are not sophisticated enough in your thoughts to see what is not there.
GIGO!
I can certainly see that lockdowns would help in a narrow sense. I am very unlikely to get a disease if I stay home alone.
The argument is that they harm more than they help. Deaths of despair, delayed and cancelled “non-essential” medical care, economic ruin which destroys life giving infrastructure, ruining our immune systems, and then unless we stay hunkered down we will eventually be exposed anyway.
I think you misspelled "dwarfs."
Nothing is certain except dwath and Texas!
Please explain the dichotomy of San Francisco, Alabama and New York during the Spanish Flu, since I'm sure that you have your own example handy to reinforce the bias I perceive concerning your epidemiological ignorance:
Read this piece on New York Dept. of Health Commissioner, Royal S. Copeland's approach to Spanish Flu.
San Francisco is repeatedly-cited as the preeminent example of how "mitigation measures" such as masks work with repeated denigration of the "anti-mask league", yet look at the fatality rates.
Alabama is all-but-ignored by 'lockdown supporters' - left and right - and for good reason: Below is a headline from the Spanish Flu era which literally is worded as though it might have been clipped in the prior weeks.
This citation from al.com's timeline of Spanish Flu in Alabama is rather apropos (and ironic, considering the dichotomy between AL & NY):
October 7: Governor closes public places..
Gov. Charles Henderson tells towns to close schools, churches, theaters and other public venues. Above, Gov. Charles Henderson in 1918 with pilot Ross L. Smith. During the Spanish flu epidemic, Henderson closed public places such as schools, churches and theaters to try to prevent the disease from spreading.
You CAN'T explain it rationally, nor can the truly scientific defend "models" which are written by those who harbor very distinct biases.
Have you learned NOTHING from 'climate change'???
Insofar as the "spread of disease", flattening the curve accomplishes only one thing: Extending the epidemic. Ultimately, without effective treatments or vaccine, there is only ONE effective measure:
Get everyone exposed who is not at-risk. If someone bothered to write THAT model, I'd put $$ on the table that this pandemic would be over by August and, most-notably, that deaths would ultimately be lower overall.
Unpopular as it is, the so-called "2nd wave" of Spanish Flu was NOT due to action or lack of action by various states but, rather one simple fact: It had not yet run through the population to achieve the immunity which afforded their descendants greater protection against later epidemics. Virally-speaking: Humans control NOTHING but humans.
"Control" being the key word.
That model was based on the idea that zero changes were made. Not just not having a lockdown, but if people didn't wash their hands more, if no masks were worn, if no behavior changes of any kind were made. It was a "do-nothing" model where SARS-CoV-2 would spread extremely rapidly, hospitalizations would spike through the roof (far beyond hospital capacities), and we'd be in the same situation Italy was in where people would be dying in the hallways of the hospitals unable to get any treatment whatsoever. That model was also based on the mortality data available at the time (early March) which was mostly Italy (which got the worst of COVID-19) and China (which we all know lies to everyone about everything).
Obviously now we know that Sweden's social distancing changes do plenty to slow the spread and "flatten the curve" so the hospitals don't get overwhelmed. But their model wasn't all that crazy, especially with the latest numbers from the CDC setting a lowest bound of 0.26% mortality. At 80% herd immunity and 330 million people in the US, that would be 686,000 total deaths by the end assuming no vaccine or improvement in treatments. Suddenly that model doesn't look so crazy.
I see your Minnesota and raise you Sweden, fearhun.
Sweden’s Coronavirus Experiment
"Tegnell argues that the scales will tip: the better the job countries did suppressing the first wave of infection, the greater their risk of a second wave. He estimates that roughly 25% of Swedes have been exposed. The more people who are immune, the harder it is for the virus to spread; full herd immunity in a homogeneous population comes at 60% or so.Trust your citizens to be prudent about social distancing and stay home if they’re sick. Keep the number of cases low enough so hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. Isolate the most vulnerable while allowing the disease to spread gradually through the rest of the population, most of whom will get only mildly ill. That will increase resilience. Such a strategy can be tolerated for years, in case that’s how long it takes for a vaccine and antiviral drugs to be developed. “The Swedish strategy is sustainable for a long, long time,” Tegnell said in the interview.
Polls of Swedes show strong support for Tegnell’s approach... Michael Ryan, who runs the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program, said on April 29 that “if we are to reach a new normal, in many ways Sweden represents a future model.”
You have the gall to be a fearhun and yet use the Debt Clock as your tagline? Wow. Just WOW.
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