Posted on 05/13/2020 5:28:35 AM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
Senate forecast is out and right now Dems have a (somewhat) clear advantage to take control. Here goes:
Arizona: McSally hasn’t led a single poll. Trump trails Biden in most polls too so she can’t count on coattails. Dem gain.
Colorado: Gardner is down double digits and Trump will Lose CO by double digits. This one is off the board. Dem gain.
Maine: Collins is struggling in polling but she knows how to win in Maine. We’ll see. Currently a toss up.
Georgia: Internal GOP polling just released shows Biden in the LEAD, albeit within the margin of error. Perdue is up but within the MoE and Loeffler vs Collins promises to be an ugly primary producing a damaged nominee. Neither polling well. Perdue is lean GOP, Loeffler is Toss up.
Kansas: Kobach looks like he’s gonna win the primary and that makes KS a tossup immediately if not a lean Dem. Dems have a moderate former Repub running for the seat.
Montana: Bullock is a popular gov, and early polling shows him in the lead. This is leans D.
Alabama: Doug Jones is gone barring something crazy. Likely R.
North Carolina: Cal Cunningham is tied or ahead in every public poll. This is leans D.
No, Repubs aren’t winning Michigan.
So Dems pick up NC, AZ, CO, MT. They lose AL for a net gain of 3. They still have KS, ME, GA to pick off another one.
Right now Dems are certainly favored to take the senate.
Let me guess, the numbers at this time in 2016 were telling a similar story. And probably so in 1980 and 1984 even.
Try 2008. Repubs looked “okay” but gradually Dems started getting good recruits, GOP polling suffered, the top of the ticket suffered......we are seeing that play again.
Recall nobody expected Dems to win 8 seats in 2008 but everything broke their way.
Polls are meaningless at this point—6 months before the election. So much can happen between now and the election.
I suspect most of these polls are push polls, as they can always get more accurate later.
I think the Trump base is going to vote in spades. democrat enthusiasm under Biden will be nil. Trump votes mobbing the polls will not vote for a democrat period.
Totally different from 2018 with Donald on the ballot this time.
There’s no magic negro this time to pull in the Leftwing/virtue signaling votes.
In fact, the magic candidate, who has all the enthusiastic voters is DJT.
You may want to consider stopping that subscription to the New York Times.
No - not happening. Not because I say so but because of the signs we see. In crappy CNN poll Trump hits all time high. Enthusiasm for Trump is + 19 pts. Trump/RNC set RECORD for fundraising in April - April when 15% out of work. Republicans are united as never before. Trump will run on “I need help to do it again, look what I did without help.” Obamagate is exploding. Now even when they steal the seat in California we know how much fraud we have to fight.
Six months to the election. A lot can happen.
Fortunately Something Crazy lost the primary with only about 7% of the vote.
It’s not 2008 and Trump is president and very popular even if some polls don’t say so. Stop being so afraid
I’m a worrier and some on this bored sometimes makes me look like the slmoat calm person alive.. thank you :-)
“I think the Trump base is going to vote in spades.”
Agreed. And the only thing that saved McCain in 2008 from getting far less votes than Romney in 2012 was Sarah Palin.
Yes you are right on....The “Magic Negro”, Ex-POTUS, Barack Hussein Obama has lost his magic as the “Magic Negro”. Obama is toast...no burnt toast!!!
I think the realistic pick ups for Democrats right now are ME, AZ, and CO. The polling on the others will probably tighten the closer we get to November. I wouldn’t write off Michigan completely either right now because of the antipathy toward the governor.
Yessir.
I really can’t make someone chance their vote, but I can promise I’ll be voting Trump and GOP come hell or high water.
worthless blog
What has the Republican led Senate done to DESERVE reelection?
Pretty much the most useless bunch of idiots on the planet except for the House. McConnell is a useless, back-stabbing girly-man that I’m not even sure is quite human. A handful of them are good people, but the majority are corrupt swamp creatures that deserve to be cleaning out sewers somewhere, not running our government.
And those are the Republicans I’m talking about. The RATS, of course, are several notches below THEM.
Too early
“There’s no magic negro this time to pull in the Leftwing/virtue signaling votes.”
Biden is going to pick a woman regardless whether she’s qualified. It’s likely going to be a black(ish?) woman. That will excite both the African American voters and the crazed liberals in general knowing this person will be taking over the presidency before 4 years it up.
The GOP just won a blue seat in California, improved by more than 6 points in a California State Senate seat and the relatively unknown Tiffany nearly matched Trumps 2016 percentage in Wisconsin and you come on here and post dubious polling and act “concerned?”
I am sick and tired of the doom and gloom from ‘our’ side. So called ‘conservatives’ do it over and over and over.
You just posted a worst case scenario and then in typical coward fashion deemed it to be “likely.
You are the perfect patsy that polls are designed for. They are designed to discourage, defeat and demoralize. They are counting on cowards to fall for the narrative.
I am SICK of this crap. Liberals don’t ever look forward to the next defeat, they are always looking for the next way to win. That’s the big problem with our side. We always seem to be ready to throw in the towel the first time things look tough.
Liberals don’t care. They lose and immediately move on for the next fight.
We don’t need punching bags and cowards who are always claiming the sky is falling and who preach doom and gloom.
We need fighters who never, ever quit.
If you can’t hold the line, go back to your safe space and make way for someone who will.
I could see the Republicans picking up two more seats when they win in Minnesota and New Mexico.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.