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How high will it go? As Covid-19 death toll in U.S. blows past 60,000, there are no easy answers
STAT ^ | April 30, 2020 | SHARON BEGLEY and HYACINTH EMPINADO

Posted on 05/02/2020 10:13:10 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican

When STAT first compared projected U.S. deaths from Covid-19, in early April, there seemed to be a glimmer of good news: A prominent model had just lowered its estimate for total deaths through Aug. 4 from about 100,000 to 60,000, reflecting the apparent success of three weeks of social distancing across much of the country.

On Wednesday, April 29, the country blew past 60,000, more than three months before the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projected. (The 60,000 almost certainly undercounts Covid-19 deaths, by about 9,000.) IHME, whose model has been criticized by many epidemiologists, now says the most likely death toll on Aug. 4 will be 72,433, though it could be as low as about 60,000 (obviously impossible) and as high as 115,000.

(Excerpt) Read more at statnews.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: distorted; inflated; statisticalabuse; unreliabledata
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To: MinorityRepublican

Falsified numbers from corrupt Democrat bureaucrats.


21 posted on 05/02/2020 10:24:42 AM PDT by stinkerpot65 (Global warming is a Marxist lie.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

320 million americans, we will be fine.


22 posted on 05/02/2020 10:25:15 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: MinorityRepublican

It’s just the flu, bro
/sarc


23 posted on 05/02/2020 10:26:16 AM PDT by RedStateRocker (Nuke Mecca. Deport all illegals. Abolish the DEA, IRS and ATF,.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Keeping people locked-down causes damage too.

Too much drinking + too much inactivity = physical health problems

Plus more divorces, more domestic violence, more depression, more bankruptcies, etc.

Everybody NEEDS to get back to normal (except maybe those most at risk), if only for the sake of sanity.


24 posted on 05/02/2020 10:26:56 AM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: MinorityRepublican

300,000,000+ in the USA. That’s nothing but a nasty flu. Go back to work.


25 posted on 05/02/2020 10:27:11 AM PDT by Vaquero ( Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

At least 10% are fake. He jumped off a cliff. It must be Convid death.


26 posted on 05/02/2020 10:29:36 AM PDT by cp124 (Maine is closed for business per General Mills.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

And how many in that number are actual deaths from COVID? They seem to lump in anyone who died from whatever other causes into that number.


27 posted on 05/02/2020 10:30:31 AM PDT by SkyDancer ( ~ Just Consider Me A Random Fact Generator ~ Eat Sleep Fly Repeat ~)
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To: TexasFreeper2009; LS
We need to change the mindset to "flatten the suicide curve."

People are out of work and in despair and we are already hearing of people thinking of ending it all. Those fatalities will pale in contrast to the few remaining COVID19 fatalities from reduced social distancing.

This should be the mantra: open up businesses to flatten the suicide curve. Not only is that a true problem we need to tackle, it puts the haters of Commerce and fellow citizens' plight (read: libs) on the defensive.

Alinsky, all base are belong to us.

28 posted on 05/02/2020 10:32:46 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: MinorityRepublican

New virus, first year, not a big surprise, and the media should be better than the ignorant public and not exciting everyone over the Wuhan Virus death count.

Influenza A is one of the now seasonal flu viruses.

It was called the Spanish Flu in the epidemic of 1918. The U.S. alone incurred about 675,000 deaths in that epidemic. Today it is part of the strains of viruses collectively referred to as the “seasonal flu”.

Being too excited about the deaths this year with the Wuhan Virus just plays into the ignorance of how we and the viruses we don’t like progress over time. We get better at attacking them and develop more herd immunity toward them, over time. The first year is usually the worst.


29 posted on 05/02/2020 10:37:29 AM PDT by Wuli
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To: TexasFreeper2009; LS
Redo...I hit send too early...sorry...

We need to change the mindset to "flatten the suicide curve."

People are out of work and in despair and we are already hearing of people thinking of ending it all. Those fatalities will be massive and tearful in contrast to the few remaining COVID19 fatalities that will arise from reduced social distancing in bars, restaurants, and workplaces.

This should be the mantra: open up businesses to flatten the suicide curve. Not only is this the right mindset, and not only is this a true problem we need to tackle, and not only is it full of TRUE compassion for mankind, it puts the haters of normal people and Commerce and fellow citizens' plight (read: libs) on the defensive. "So, you like to see suicide numbers rising?"

Alinsky, all base are belong to us.

30 posted on 05/02/2020 10:37:45 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Your numbers are as good as what my dog predicts.


31 posted on 05/02/2020 10:40:55 AM PDT by norcal joe
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To: Skywise

The death rate, total, is HALF of what it would usually be this time of year.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/Provisional-Death-Counts-COVID-19-Pneumonia-and-Influenza.pdf


32 posted on 05/02/2020 10:42:37 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Paladin2
So what is the alternative plan from these f’n geniuses?

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Instead of giving away trillions of dollars with no tangible end in site to this mess, spend a few billion on creating 1000 Abbott labs producing rapid test machines and tests 24 /7 nationwide. Then spread the machines out on a per capita basis according to case numbers and population. many areas will need no machines or testing. Then start offering 24/7 testing to all citizens. test week after week. Quarantine those who test positive. Open all businesses. Incentivize businesses to only allow entrance to those who have tested negative. Use the National Guard if necessary if states are not capable or incompetent. The virus disappears almost overnight.

I want the country opened now because if not now, when? But it could be with much more assurance if Trump opened his mind long ago and focused on testing. If things go sideways now, his election is in real trouble.

33 posted on 05/02/2020 10:42:43 AM PDT by bramps (It's the Islam, stupid!)
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To: Skywise

Yes, cases and deaths will increase quickly until herd immunity is reached. Thenthings will slow considerably. Immunity will happen slower in some places than others, obviously.


34 posted on 05/02/2020 10:42:57 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods ("As government expands, liberty contracts." -Ronald Reagan)
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To: MinorityRepublican

The number will depend on how much the Fauci-types fake the number by false attribution.


35 posted on 05/02/2020 10:43:23 AM PDT by Socon-Econ (adical Islam,)
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To: MinorityRepublican; All
"On Wednesday, April 29, the country blew past 60,000, more than three months before the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projected."

So we’ve gone from the “Orange Man Bad” media’s politicization of Trump Administration models being wrong to how high will the numbers go?

Still hoping that highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 disappears with summer heat like the flu does.

Looking on the positive side of COVID-19 pandemic, patriots are reminded that PDJT has indicated that it has given him the opportunity to rebuild FDA, CDC, medical support and drug industries like he has rebuilt military.

Send "Orange Man Bad" federal and state government Democrats and RINOs home in November!

Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping COVID-19 will effectively give fast-working Trump a third term in office imo.

MAGA, also KAGA! (Keep America Great Always!)

36 posted on 05/02/2020 10:43:36 AM PDT by Amendment10
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To: Skywise

It blew by 60,000 based on probable and possible. Gotta keep those numbers inflated to scare everyone into been good little sheeple. The accurate number is still 48,000 confirmed.

Y’all are free to lock your self in your safe space. But there right does not extend to force me to give up my God given rights.


37 posted on 05/02/2020 10:44:00 AM PDT by gas_dr (Trial lawyers AND POLITICIANS are Endangering Every Patient in America: INCLUDING THEIR LIBERTIES)
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To: MinorityRepublican

It takes two leftists to write an article...blows past...we’re all gonna die!!!


38 posted on 05/02/2020 10:44:59 AM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Be still, and know that I am God...Psalm 46:10)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

“its going to do what its going to do regardless. “

Agreed.

Careful, dont let logic and reason intrude into ChiCom hysteria. /s


39 posted on 05/02/2020 10:46:14 AM PDT by Macoozie (Handcuffs and Orange Jumpsuits)
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To: CIB-173RDABN

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/Provisional-Death-Counts-COVID-19-Pneumonia-and-Influenza.pdf

There is another set of data but CDC doesn’t provide a graph. US weekly pneumonia deaths are WAY down. The gap represents cases converted to COVID.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData12.csv

Graph migh show up on a search of “US Pneumonia Deaths - Weekly” Data from 2013 to present.


40 posted on 05/02/2020 10:46:23 AM PDT by Cboldt
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