Posted on 04/18/2020 9:12:57 AM PDT by Hojczyk
The revision will likely fuel criticism from skeptics that initial projections were overblown, and one that government leaders may use to say that efforts to combat the spread are working.
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) lowered its projection of total deaths from 68,841 (with an estimate range of 30,188 to 175,965) to just over 60,308 (with an estimate range of 34,063 to 140,381) in an update published Friday.
The institute said that change was partially driven by both higher estimates in states like New York and New Jersey, and lower projections in states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, Georgia and Florida.
“It’s a little bit like forecasting the weather,” Dr. Christopher Murray, who helps create the model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told “America’s Newsroom” anchor Ed Henry on Friday.
"We try to take into account all the data that is coming in from all the states and so all of our numbers are going to be revised as we see progress faster or slower. But, overall, we think that the general trend that we’ve seen since the beginning is a range between 40,000 to 150,000 deaths being where we’ll fallout for the country come June," he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
It is only 10%
Now they are faking the cause of death to get the numbers up.
Wait till these f*ckwads start comparing it to 58,220.
Then it will be time to burn the whole effin thing down.
Don’t believe a thing they say.
Get Back To Work.
Meanwhile in Japan...
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/japanese-medical-workers-fear-the-worst-as-coronavirus-cases-spike/ar-BB12OhZd
By Emiko Jozuka, CNN 12 hrs ago
...In the past few weeks, Japan’s coronavirus cases have spiked — dashing hopes that the government’s initial virus response had succeeded in controlling its spread. As of Friday, Japan had 9,787 confirmed cases, including 190 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. On March 1, the country had 243 cases.
The sharp increase has prompted Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to extend the state of emergency from seven prefectures to the entire country. On Friday, he also promised to provide medical equipment such as surgical masks, gowns and face shields to hospitals struggling with acute gear shortages within a week.
Earlier this week, a team of government experts warned that Japan could have more than 400,000 coronavirus-related deaths if measures such as social distancing are not taken...
Its only .004 of the original estimate of 2.2 million.
Exactly, they are working on it from both directions, reducing forecasts and padding deaths.
What was the number of deaths for the worse US flu season on record?
It was at around 60,000 earlier in the week too, then upped to 68,000, now back down to 60,000.
Updates each three days.
It was at 140,000 then dropped to 60,000. I don’t know if the paper on the underlying math explains what changed.
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates <- some explanation on the Apr 13 -> Apr 17 change.
Threshold of 1 infection per 1 million: We have chosen this threshold - 1 prevalent COVID-19 infection per 1,000,000 population - to represent a conservative estimate of the number of infections each location could reasonably try to identify via active case detection and contact tracing in order to prevent COVID-19 resurgence.
To identify the date after which easing social distancing may be possible - below the 1 prevalent infection per million threshold - we took the first date after the upper bound of the 95% uncertainty interval for all-age prevalence predictions was lower than 1 infection per 1,000,000.
A focus on when US states could consider easing social distancing if containment measures are in place [No state before May 5, many into June]
RE: Top coronavirus model significantly lowers total estimates of US deaths in new projection.
We have about 35,000 deaths in the USA as of this writing. Slowly but surely, we are reaching the projected (and revised ) 60,000 mark and I am not happy to know this.
They are faking the numbers of cases and deaths. If you die in a car accident it will be corona.
miniscule and a false flag to scare the masses.
I’m sure they have been doing that all along.
Pointless.
Models don’t matter, counts are BS, people are liars.
Whatever is going to happen is going to happen.
Maybe one honest person will be alive at the end to count, but I doubt it.
I suspect Marxist subterfuge. It smell like s***
As has been said before, there are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics.
In a country where science has become so politicized that it barely resembles science, where damn near anybody qualifies as an expert depending on who likes what they say, where inherently bad computer models are worshipped by bureaucrats, I rely on my instincts, my common sense, and a healthy sense of skepticism.
It’s been 45 years since I worked with this stuff in college, and the reality is very little has changed. It always has and always will go back to GIGO. And they are dumping truckloads of it into these models.
It’s always wrong. They are trying to catch up based on real data
Partisan Media Shills update.
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