We Are 100 Times Safer Now Than In Early March: Here is the Math

Yahoo Finance ^ | April 11, 2020 | Inan Dogan

[DannyTN]

The real world data reflects the lock down.

You don’t have much real world data that doesn’t reflect a lock down.

You can’t compare a model with no lock down with a model that has a lock down.

And HCQ has been a game changer too. The models didn’t predict that.

So now you have data that doesn’t match the model, but you have changes that the model didn’t consider. Thus you can’t say the model was wrong.

[dhs12345]

But what we do know is all the lock down did was delay the inevitable.

[Honorary Serb]

....remember that flu that you had in November, December?...

Or the “cold” with strange symptoms (body aches, malaise) I had in MARCH 2020!!!!

But I would really like to get an antibody test to see if I really am “immune”!!!!

[DannyTN]

"But what we do know is all the lock down did was delay the inevitable."

I don't know that and I don't believe that. None of the governors implementing the lock down believe that. The CDC and the FDA don't believe that. Trump doesn't believe that.

[Paladin2]

I do wonder even what today’s governmental objective is compared to their objective tomorrow.

Not overwhelming the hospitals makes sense as long as you hit it just right and hold it there for a while to get minimum deaths while maximizing the virus burn through rate.

So I guess there are at least two functions to optimize simultaneously. We’re not in any way close to being able to do that across our geographically diverse nation.

Sounds like we are going to have to try this a couple of times

Where are Drs. Shut-it-Down and Scarf on predicting what will happen in the Fall when we sure as heck better have the K-12 Schools open?

[IrishBrigade]

‘None of the governors implementing the lock down believe that.’

these governors were implementing policy by crisis...driven more by panic than any firm beliefs; do something, do something...

[wildcard_redneck]

Just wait until the jobless start to die of starvation and hopelessness.

[DannyTN]

They have health care policy advisors and economic advisors. They know the economic costs.

You’d like to believe the governors operated out of panic, because that would help justify your position. But they weighed the cost and decided this was the right thing to do.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Confirmed cases around the world, 2 million.

World population, 7.5+ billion.

Just sayin’.

[Paladin2]

"They know the economic costs."

With Pelosi in charge of appropriations the sky is the limit on the economic costs.

[dhs12345]

Maybe because either they are short sighted or know and don't want to tell the truth to people.

Here is the truth as DHS12345 sees it.

It will repeat over and over again until everyone has been exposed, got it, died from it or got sick recovered and gained immunity.

The problem is that it is world wide and even though the number of contaminated people drops below critical mass in the US, there will be pockets of people around the world that will reinfect the world all over again. International travel will be shut down for decades.

Then there is the possibility of mutations.

At some point a vaccine will be developed and slowly the 1st world countries will be immunized but this will not happen over night. My layman's guess is that it will 2-3 years to immunize the whole US population. All the while, people will be running for their basements every couple months (or ordered to do the same) waiting for the all clear when “the curve” has started dropping again.

[dhs12345]

Oh, and people with and without immunity will be tracked via some system using IDs.

[lquist1]

I’m willing to go with this narrative if we declare victory NOW and reopen the country.

[familyop]

"So a large percentage of the population have not been exposed? Do you not see this as a problem? That means that these vulnerable people will get sick when covid returns in a few months? The only thing that delay buys us is time to develop an immunization which will take years."

Yes, some of the earlier estimates for a vaccine to market are for around next spring.

They're seeing a decrease in hospitalizations in New York, though, so we'll wait and see if that trend continues. Maybe the virus is mutating towards weakness, as so many others have. And there's warm weather, although we haven't seen the expected warming trend, yet.

[Big Red Badger]

I had a slight
Scratchy throat
Then it rolled into
My sinuses for
Several days
But when it hit
My Chest I was
Coughing Hard,Very Hard.
Like never before without
A Clearing,
All Night long.
.
It was Thanksgiving time.

[Paladin2]

“USCF’s Rutherford told the Chronicle it takes years to build up herd immunity for the flu.”

https://patch.com/california/paloalto/medical-experts-blast-calif-coronavirus-herd-immunity-theory

[DoodleBob]

I feel sorry for the English, Dutch, and Swedish people though. Their responses weren’t as timely and appropriate as President Trump’s and it is now a mathematical certainty that a larger percentage of their population will die from COVID-19 by the time things settle in a couple of months.

First of all, let's simply present today's installment of the proper relative comparison of deaths across the world. Below are the April 11th totals for the US and select other countries. While the US' time series ends on Day 18 (which is April 11 - and is basis of the order, i.e., I sorted the data by Day 17 values), I am publishing other countries future totals/'golfer's scores' who are on hole 8 while we're at hole 4.

The US' ranking doesn't look like it'll move from here on out, except with Switzerland with which we're running neck-and-neck. The next nearest country is Luxembourg and the US is good 3800 or so adjusted fatalities ahead of them.

With regard to the assertion made in the article that the US likely won't catch up to the UK, Netherlands, or Sweden...I dunno. If the US has an 18%+ daily rate of increase in fatalities over the next two days, it'll 'catch up' to the Netherlands. The equivalent equalizing growth rates for Sweden and the UK are 28% and 242%, respectively. So, I doubt we'll catch up to the UK and, to a lesser extent, Sweden but I wouldn't yet count out catching up to the Netherlands (though our rate of growth hasn't sped up recently), expecially if they start including COVID-positive car accident fatalities etc in the GitHub data. / sarc (sort of)

And remember, He is the Reason for the Season.

Country	Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths	Day 14	Day 15	Day 16	Day 17	Day 18	Day 19	Day 20
San Marino	3/3/20	68,711	68,711	107,974	107,974	137,421	196,316	196,316
Andorra	3/21/20	68,000	72,250	76,500	89,250	93,500	97,750	106,250
United Kingdom	3/15/20	34,021	41,018	47,016	59,744	78,537	97,497	120,322
West Bank and Gaza	3/25/20	28,167	28,167	28,167	56,334	56,334	-	-
Spain	3/13/20	30,541	35,950	41,855	47,600	53,988	59,222	65,680
Belgium	3/19/20	23,678	28,911	32,686	36,689	41,379	46,669	58,193
France	3/18/20	17,353	19,864	26,521	32,034	37,212	39,762	43,855
Italy	3/5/20	16,291	18,627	22,057	26,395	29,956	33,244	37,308
Netherlands	3/17/20	16,335	19,640	22,189	25,324	28,138	31,273	33,445
Sweden	3/23/20	12,789	15,213	18,848	21,910	25,290	27,746	28,288
Ireland	3/25/20	14,062	15,736	17,611	19,218	21,428	-	-
Switzerland	3/16/20	11,514	13,779	16,619	18,730	20,572	22,683	25,561
United States	3/25/20	12,722	14,695	16,478	18,586	20,463	-	-
Luxembourg	3/17/20	11,810	12,347	15,568	16,105	16,642	16,642	19,326
Macedonia	3/24/20	11,153	12,608	14,063	14,548	15,518	16,488	-
Portugal	3/23/20	9,460	9,973	11,064	12,186	13,116	13,950	15,072
Denmark	3/22/20	9,112	10,131	10,584	11,489	12,338	13,414	13,980
Austria	3/23/20	7,552	8,144	8,995	10,106	10,920	11,809	12,475
Germany	3/25/20	7,990	9,310	10,333	10,967	10,844	-	-
Iran	3/9/20	6,664	7,166	7,649	8,214	8,835	9,404	9,954
Iceland	3/23/20	3,619	5,428	5,428	5,428	5,428	6,333	7,238
Cyprus	3/23/20	3,386	3,386	3,386	3,386	3,762	3,762	3,762

[DoodleBob]

Whoops...Sweden is the 18% closest country not the Netherlands.