Posted on 04/12/2020 2:56:22 PM PDT by absalom01
The bottomline is this. We are 100 times safer now than we were a month ago. President Trump and his pandemic response team did a fantastic job over the past few weeks limiting the number of COVID-19 deaths to around 55,000. We won the first battle. I feel sorry for the English, Dutch, and Swedish people though. Their responses werent as timely and appropriate as President Trumps and it is now a mathematical certainty that a larger percentage of their population will die from COVID-19 by the time things settle in a couple of months.
Now we have a different battle to fight. We cant lower our guard.
The total number of confirmed cases around the world is approaching 2 million. There are millions more that we werent able to identify. Anywhere from 20% to 50% of these unidentified COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. We shouldnt let anyone into our country (including U.S. citizens) without a 14-day quarantine and a negative test result at the end of the quarantine period.
...
There are more than 100 different companies working on a COVID-19 vaccine right now. It is very likely that at least one of those companies will succeed within a year.
These are probably the darkest days of this pandemic and I am certain you will be able to see what I am seeing right now in a couple of weeks.
We did well and saved millions of American lives. This is the most resilient virus weve come across over the last 100 years, but the American people proved to be more resilient than the coronavirus.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
The real world data reflects the lock down.
You don’t have much real world data that doesn’t reflect a lock down.
You can’t compare a model with no lock down with a model that has a lock down.
And HCQ has been a game changer too. The models didn’t predict that.
So now you have data that doesn’t match the model, but you have changes that the model didn’t consider. Thus you can’t say the model was wrong.
But what we do know is all the lock down did was delay the inevitable.
....remember that flu that you had in November, December?...
Or the “cold” with strange symptoms (body aches, malaise) I had in MARCH 2020!!!!
But I would really like to get an antibody test to see if I really am “immune”!!!!
I don't know that and I don't believe that. None of the governors implementing the lock down believe that. The CDC and the FDA don't believe that. Trump doesn't believe that.
I do wonder even what today’s governmental objective is compared to their objective tomorrow.
Not overwhelming the hospitals makes sense as long as you hit it just right and hold it there for a while to get minimum deaths while maximizing the virus burn through rate.
So I guess there are at least two functions to optimize simultaneously. We’re not in any way close to being able to do that across our geographically diverse nation.
Sounds like we are going to have to try this a couple of times
Where are Drs. Shut-it-Down and Scarf on predicting what will happen in the Fall when we sure as heck better have the K-12 Schools open?
‘None of the governors implementing the lock down believe that.’
these governors were implementing policy by crisis...driven more by panic than any firm beliefs; do something, do something...
Just wait until the jobless start to die of starvation and hopelessness.
They have health care policy advisors and economic advisors. They know the economic costs.
You’d like to believe the governors operated out of panic, because that would help justify your position. But they weighed the cost and decided this was the right thing to do.
Confirmed cases around the world, 2 million.
World population, 7.5+ billion.
Just sayin’.
With Pelosi in charge of appropriations the sky is the limit on the economic costs.
Here is the truth as DHS12345 sees it.
It will repeat over and over again until everyone has been exposed, got it, died from it or got sick recovered and gained immunity.
The problem is that it is world wide and even though the number of contaminated people drops below critical mass in the US, there will be pockets of people around the world that will reinfect the world all over again. International travel will be shut down for decades.
Then there is the possibility of mutations.
At some point a vaccine will be developed and slowly the 1st world countries will be immunized but this will not happen over night. My layman's guess is that it will 2-3 years to immunize the whole US population. All the while, people will be running for their basements every couple months (or ordered to do the same) waiting for the all clear when “the curve” has started dropping again.
I’m willing to go with this narrative if we declare victory NOW and reopen the country.
I had a slight
Scratchy throat
Then it rolled into
My sinuses for
Several days
But when it hit
My Chest I was
Coughing Hard,Very Hard.
Like never before without
A Clearing,
All Night long.
.
It was Thanksgiving time.
“USCF’s Rutherford told the Chronicle it takes years to build up herd immunity for the flu.”
https://patch.com/california/paloalto/medical-experts-blast-calif-coronavirus-herd-immunity-theory
First of all, let's simply present today's installment of the proper relative comparison of deaths across the world. Below are the April 11th totals for the US and select other countries. While the US' time series ends on Day 18 (which is April 11 - and is basis of the order, i.e., I sorted the data by Day 17 values), I am publishing other countries future totals/'golfer's scores' who are on hole 8 while we're at hole 4.
The US' ranking doesn't look like it'll move from here on out, except with Switzerland with which we're running neck-and-neck. The next nearest country is Luxembourg and the US is good 3800 or so adjusted fatalities ahead of them.
With regard to the assertion made in the article that the US likely won't catch up to the UK, Netherlands, or Sweden...I dunno. If the US has an 18%+ daily rate of increase in fatalities over the next two days, it'll 'catch up' to the Netherlands. The equivalent equalizing growth rates for Sweden and the UK are 28% and 242%, respectively. So, I doubt we'll catch up to the UK and, to a lesser extent, Sweden but I wouldn't yet count out catching up to the Netherlands (though our rate of growth hasn't sped up recently), expecially if they start including COVID-positive car accident fatalities etc in the GitHub data. / sarc (sort of)
And remember, He is the Reason for the Season.
Country | Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths | Day 14 | Day 15 | Day 16 | Day 17 | Day 18 | Day 19 | Day 20 |
San Marino | 3/3/20 | 68,711 | 68,711 | 107,974 | 107,974 | 137,421 | 196,316 | 196,316 |
Andorra | 3/21/20 | 68,000 | 72,250 | 76,500 | 89,250 | 93,500 | 97,750 | 106,250 |
United Kingdom | 3/15/20 | 34,021 | 41,018 | 47,016 | 59,744 | 78,537 | 97,497 | 120,322 |
West Bank and Gaza | 3/25/20 | 28,167 | 28,167 | 28,167 | 56,334 | 56,334 | - | - |
Spain | 3/13/20 | 30,541 | 35,950 | 41,855 | 47,600 | 53,988 | 59,222 | 65,680 |
Belgium | 3/19/20 | 23,678 | 28,911 | 32,686 | 36,689 | 41,379 | 46,669 | 58,193 |
France | 3/18/20 | 17,353 | 19,864 | 26,521 | 32,034 | 37,212 | 39,762 | 43,855 |
Italy | 3/5/20 | 16,291 | 18,627 | 22,057 | 26,395 | 29,956 | 33,244 | 37,308 |
Netherlands | 3/17/20 | 16,335 | 19,640 | 22,189 | 25,324 | 28,138 | 31,273 | 33,445 |
Sweden | 3/23/20 | 12,789 | 15,213 | 18,848 | 21,910 | 25,290 | 27,746 | 28,288 |
Ireland | 3/25/20 | 14,062 | 15,736 | 17,611 | 19,218 | 21,428 | - | - |
Switzerland | 3/16/20 | 11,514 | 13,779 | 16,619 | 18,730 | 20,572 | 22,683 | 25,561 |
United States | 3/25/20 | 12,722 | 14,695 | 16,478 | 18,586 | 20,463 | - | - |
Luxembourg | 3/17/20 | 11,810 | 12,347 | 15,568 | 16,105 | 16,642 | 16,642 | 19,326 |
Macedonia | 3/24/20 | 11,153 | 12,608 | 14,063 | 14,548 | 15,518 | 16,488 | - |
Portugal | 3/23/20 | 9,460 | 9,973 | 11,064 | 12,186 | 13,116 | 13,950 | 15,072 |
Denmark | 3/22/20 | 9,112 | 10,131 | 10,584 | 11,489 | 12,338 | 13,414 | 13,980 |
Austria | 3/23/20 | 7,552 | 8,144 | 8,995 | 10,106 | 10,920 | 11,809 | 12,475 |
Germany | 3/25/20 | 7,990 | 9,310 | 10,333 | 10,967 | 10,844 | - | - |
Iran | 3/9/20 | 6,664 | 7,166 | 7,649 | 8,214 | 8,835 | 9,404 | 9,954 |
Iceland | 3/23/20 | 3,619 | 5,428 | 5,428 | 5,428 | 5,428 | 6,333 | 7,238 |
Cyprus | 3/23/20 | 3,386 | 3,386 | 3,386 | 3,386 | 3,762 | 3,762 | 3,762 |
Whoops...Sweden is the 18% closest country not the Netherlands.
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