The real world data reflects the lock down.
You don’t have much real world data that doesn’t reflect a lock down.
You can’t compare a model with no lock down with a model that has a lock down.
And HCQ has been a game changer too. The models didn’t predict that.
So now you have data that doesn’t match the model, but you have changes that the model didn’t consider. Thus you can’t say the model was wrong.
But what we do know is all the lock down did was delay the inevitable.