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We Are 100 Times Safer Now Than In Early March: Here is the Math
Yahoo Finance ^ | April 11, 2020 | Inan Dogan

Posted on 04/12/2020 2:56:22 PM PDT by absalom01

The bottomline is this. We are 100 times safer now than we were a month ago. President Trump and his pandemic response team did a fantastic job over the past few weeks limiting the number of COVID-19 deaths to around 55,000. We won the first battle. I feel sorry for the English, Dutch, and Swedish people though. Their responses weren’t as timely and appropriate as President Trump’s and it is now a mathematical certainty that a larger percentage of their population will die from COVID-19 by the time things settle in a couple of months.

Now we have a different battle to fight. We can’t lower our guard.

The total number of confirmed cases around the world is approaching 2 million. There are millions more that we weren’t able to identify. Anywhere from 20% to 50% of these unidentified COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. We shouldn’t let anyone into our country (including U.S. citizens) without a 14-day quarantine and a negative test result at the end of the quarantine period.

...

There are more than 100 different companies working on a COVID-19 vaccine right now. It is very likely that at least one of those companies will succeed within a year.

These are probably the darkest days of this pandemic and I am certain you will be able to see what I am seeing right now in a couple of weeks.

We did well and saved millions of American lives. This is the most resilient virus we’ve come across over the last 100 years, but the American people proved to be more resilient than the coronavirus.

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bioterrorism; bioweapon; ccpvirus; coronavirus; covid19; war
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To: dhs12345

The real world data reflects the lock down.

You don’t have much real world data that doesn’t reflect a lock down.

You can’t compare a model with no lock down with a model that has a lock down.

And HCQ has been a game changer too. The models didn’t predict that.

So now you have data that doesn’t match the model, but you have changes that the model didn’t consider. Thus you can’t say the model was wrong.


21 posted on 04/12/2020 3:33:54 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: DannyTN

But what we do know is all the lock down did was delay the inevitable.


22 posted on 04/12/2020 3:35:31 PM PDT by dhs12345
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To: dhs12345

....remember that flu that you had in November, December?...

Or the “cold” with strange symptoms (body aches, malaise) I had in MARCH 2020!!!!

But I would really like to get an antibody test to see if I really am “immune”!!!!


23 posted on 04/12/2020 3:36:56 PM PDT by Honorary Serb (Kosovo is Serbia! Free Srpska! Abolish ICTY!)
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To: dhs12345
"But what we do know is all the lock down did was delay the inevitable."

I don't know that and I don't believe that. None of the governors implementing the lock down believe that. The CDC and the FDA don't believe that. Trump doesn't believe that.

24 posted on 04/12/2020 3:40:03 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: dhs12345

I do wonder even what today’s governmental objective is compared to their objective tomorrow.

Not overwhelming the hospitals makes sense as long as you hit it just right and hold it there for a while to get minimum deaths while maximizing the virus burn through rate.

So I guess there are at least two functions to optimize simultaneously. We’re not in any way close to being able to do that across our geographically diverse nation.

Sounds like we are going to have to try this a couple of times

Where are Drs. Shut-it-Down and Scarf on predicting what will happen in the Fall when we sure as heck better have the K-12 Schools open?


25 posted on 04/12/2020 3:45:06 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: DannyTN

‘None of the governors implementing the lock down believe that.’

these governors were implementing policy by crisis...driven more by panic than any firm beliefs; do something, do something...


26 posted on 04/12/2020 4:00:38 PM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: absalom01

Just wait until the jobless start to die of starvation and hopelessness.


27 posted on 04/12/2020 4:02:58 PM PDT by wildcard_redneck (If the Trump Administration doesn't prosecute the coup plotters he loses the election in 2020)
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To: IrishBrigade

They have health care policy advisors and economic advisors. They know the economic costs.

You’d like to believe the governors operated out of panic, because that would help justify your position. But they weighed the cost and decided this was the right thing to do.


28 posted on 04/12/2020 4:04:33 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: absalom01

Confirmed cases around the world, 2 million.

World population, 7.5+ billion.

Just sayin’.


29 posted on 04/12/2020 4:14:50 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer)
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To: DannyTN
"They know the economic costs."

With Pelosi in charge of appropriations the sky is the limit on the economic costs.

30 posted on 04/12/2020 4:18:13 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: DannyTN
Maybe because either they are short sighted or know and don't want to tell the truth to people.

Here is the truth as DHS12345 sees it.

It will repeat over and over again until everyone has been exposed, got it, died from it or got sick recovered and gained immunity.

The problem is that it is world wide and even though the number of contaminated people drops below critical mass in the US, there will be pockets of people around the world that will reinfect the world all over again. International travel will be shut down for decades.

Then there is the possibility of mutations.

At some point a vaccine will be developed and slowly the 1st world countries will be immunized but this will not happen over night. My layman's guess is that it will 2-3 years to immunize the whole US population. All the while, people will be running for their basements every couple months (or ordered to do the same) waiting for the all clear when “the curve” has started dropping again.

31 posted on 04/12/2020 4:34:47 PM PDT by dhs12345
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To: DannyTN
Oh, and people with and without immunity will be tracked via some system using IDs.
32 posted on 04/12/2020 4:39:34 PM PDT by dhs12345
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To: absalom01

I’m willing to go with this narrative if we declare victory NOW and reopen the country.


33 posted on 04/12/2020 4:52:17 PM PDT by lquist1
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To: dhs12345
"So a large percentage of the population have not been exposed? Do you not see this as a problem? That means that these vulnerable people will get sick when covid returns in a few months? The only thing that delay buys us is time to develop an immunization which will take years."

Yes, some of the earlier estimates for a vaccine to market are for around next spring.

They're seeing a decrease in hospitalizations in New York, though, so we'll wait and see if that trend continues. Maybe the virus is mutating towards weakness, as so many others have. And there's warm weather, although we haven't seen the expected warming trend, yet.

34 posted on 04/12/2020 5:25:31 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: dhs12345

I had a slight
Scratchy throat
Then it rolled into
My sinuses for
Several days
But when it hit
My Chest I was
Coughing Hard,Very Hard.
Like never before without
A Clearing,
All Night long.
.
It was Thanksgiving time.


35 posted on 04/12/2020 6:30:21 PM PDT by Big Red Badger (He Hath Not Given Us A Spirit Of Fear)
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To: dhs12345

“USCF’s Rutherford told the Chronicle it takes years to build up herd immunity for the flu.”

https://patch.com/california/paloalto/medical-experts-blast-calif-coronavirus-herd-immunity-theory


36 posted on 04/12/2020 7:15:37 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: absalom01; The_Media_never_lie; NobleFree; Paladin2; aMorePerfectUnion; gas_dr; dp0622; ...
I feel sorry for the English, Dutch, and Swedish people though. Their responses weren’t as timely and appropriate as President Trump’s and it is now a mathematical certainty that a larger percentage of their population will die from COVID-19 by the time things settle in a couple of months.

First of all, let's simply present today's installment of the proper relative comparison of deaths across the world. Below are the April 11th totals for the US and select other countries. While the US' time series ends on Day 18 (which is April 11 - and is basis of the order, i.e., I sorted the data by Day 17 values), I am publishing other countries future totals/'golfer's scores' who are on hole 8 while we're at hole 4.

The US' ranking doesn't look like it'll move from here on out, except with Switzerland with which we're running neck-and-neck. The next nearest country is Luxembourg and the US is good 3800 or so adjusted fatalities ahead of them.

With regard to the assertion made in the article that the US likely won't catch up to the UK, Netherlands, or Sweden...I dunno. If the US has an 18%+ daily rate of increase in fatalities over the next two days, it'll 'catch up' to the Netherlands. The equivalent equalizing growth rates for Sweden and the UK are 28% and 242%, respectively. So, I doubt we'll catch up to the UK and, to a lesser extent, Sweden but I wouldn't yet count out catching up to the Netherlands (though our rate of growth hasn't sped up recently), expecially if they start including COVID-positive car accident fatalities etc in the GitHub data. / sarc (sort of)

And remember, He is the Reason for the Season.

Country Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths Day 14 Day 15 Day 16 Day 17 Day 18 Day 19 Day 20
San Marino 3/3/20 68,711 68,711 107,974 107,974 137,421 196,316 196,316
Andorra 3/21/20 68,000 72,250 76,500 89,250 93,500 97,750 106,250
United Kingdom 3/15/20 34,021 41,018 47,016 59,744 78,537 97,497 120,322
West Bank and Gaza 3/25/20 28,167 28,167 28,167 56,334 56,334 - -
Spain 3/13/20 30,541 35,950 41,855 47,600 53,988 59,222 65,680
Belgium 3/19/20 23,678 28,911 32,686 36,689 41,379 46,669 58,193
France 3/18/20 17,353 19,864 26,521 32,034 37,212 39,762 43,855
Italy 3/5/20 16,291 18,627 22,057 26,395 29,956 33,244 37,308
Netherlands 3/17/20 16,335 19,640 22,189 25,324 28,138 31,273 33,445
Sweden 3/23/20 12,789 15,213 18,848 21,910 25,290 27,746 28,288
Ireland 3/25/20 14,062 15,736 17,611 19,218 21,428 - -
Switzerland 3/16/20 11,514 13,779 16,619 18,730 20,572 22,683 25,561
United States 3/25/20 12,722 14,695 16,478 18,586 20,463 - -
Luxembourg 3/17/20 11,810 12,347 15,568 16,105 16,642 16,642 19,326
Macedonia 3/24/20 11,153 12,608 14,063 14,548 15,518 16,488 -
Portugal 3/23/20 9,460 9,973 11,064 12,186 13,116 13,950 15,072
Denmark 3/22/20 9,112 10,131 10,584 11,489 12,338 13,414 13,980
Austria 3/23/20 7,552 8,144 8,995 10,106 10,920 11,809 12,475
Germany 3/25/20 7,990 9,310 10,333 10,967 10,844 - -
Iran 3/9/20 6,664 7,166 7,649 8,214 8,835 9,404 9,954
Iceland 3/23/20 3,619 5,428 5,428 5,428 5,428 6,333 7,238
Cyprus 3/23/20 3,386 3,386 3,386 3,386 3,762 3,762 3,762

37 posted on 04/12/2020 7:17:35 PM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob

Whoops...Sweden is the 18% closest country not the Netherlands.


38 posted on 04/12/2020 9:31:24 PM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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