Posted on 03/31/2020 7:06:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.
The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.
That coronavirus death rate, which is lower than earlier estimates, takes into account potentially milder cases that often go undiagnosed -- but it's still far higher than the 0.1% of people who are killed by the flu.
When undetected infections aren't taken into account, the Lancet study found that the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%, which is more consistent with earlier reports.
Early in March, for example, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that "if you just do the math, the math is about 2%."
But he emphasized that the number could go down, saying that "as a group it's going to depend completely on what the factor of asymptomatic cases are."
That's because death rates typically only consider reported coronavirus cases, which tend to be more severe, and thus brought to the attention of health care workers. Asymptomatic cases -- or mild cases -- may not always be counted.
In this study, researchers tried to estimate the true "infection fatality rate." In other words, out of everybody infected -- not just those sick enough to get tested -- how many people will die?
To find out, researchers looked at how widespread infections were among people repatriated to their home countries on flights from Wuhan, China.
According to the study, these people received PCR tests -- a test that would be able to identify how many travelers were shedding the virus, even if they didn't show symptoms.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
ESTIMATES:
Researchers combined that data on “infection prevalence” with public information on reported cases and deaths, estimating the overall death rate to be about two-thirds of 1%.
That number, though, went up in older adults, with approximately 7.8% of those 80 or older estimated to die after infection.
And deaths were estimated to be exceedingly rare in children younger than 9, with a fatality rate of just 0.00161%.
For age groups younger than 40, the death rate was never higher than 0.16%, according to the study. Out of 1,000 young adults infected, then, about 1 or 2 could die, with the youngest people facing the lowest risk.
The average time from onset of symptoms to hospital discharge was about 25 days, researchers found, although patients might not have been hospitalized during the early days of their illness. Among those who succumbed to the virus, death came about 18 days after people started showing symptoms.
The study found that it could take weeks for people to recover from coronavirus, which could magnify potential health care shortages: The longer it takes for people to get better, the longer they may need precious hospital space and resources.
US death rate will be very similar to the flu.
Meanwhile, here's the case mortality rate using confirmed cases.
Country | Total cases | Total Deaths | Case Mortality Rate | Prev Day CMR |
World | 803,126 | 39,032 | 4.9% | 4.7% |
USA | 164,435 | 3,175 | 1.9% | 1.7% |
Italy | 101,739 | 11,591 | 11.4% | 11.0% |
Spain | 94,417 | 8,189 | 8.7% | 8.6% |
China | 81,518 | 3,305 | 4.1% | 4.1% |
Germany | 67,051 | 682 | 1.0% | 0.9% |
Iran | 44,605 | 2,898 | 6.5% | 6.6% |
France | 44,550 | 3,024 | 6.8% | 6.5% |
UK | 22,141 | 1,408 | 6.4% | 6.3% |
State | ||||
New York | 67,325 | 1,342 | 2.0% | 1.6% |
New Jersey | 16,636 | 198 | 1.2% | 1.2% |
California | 7,426 | 149 | 2.0% | 2.1% |
Michigan | 6,498 | 184 | 2.8% | 2.4% |
Massachusetts | 5,752 | 56 | 1.0% | 1.0% |
Florida | 5,704 | 71 | 1.2% | 1.2% |
Washington | 5,250 | 210 | 4.0% | 4.1% |
Illinois | 5,057 | 73 | 1.4% | 1.4% |
Pennsylvania | 4,154 | 51 | 1.2% | NA |
Louisiana | 4,025 | 185 | 4.6% | 4.3% |
Source: Worldometers 3/31/2020 approx 8am CST | ||||
PA is not available, only because it didn't make yesterday's list, and I didn't save everything. | ||||
CMR is increasing in most cases. Many possibilities. |
I wonder how long it will take fear-filled-fearmonger’s to attack this statement?
I agree
Well, which seasonal flu?
Last year's flu -- okay. But the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic was perhaps 10-20 x as deadly here in the US.
Fatality rate of .0067, and that is before the new, drug treatment regimens?
Fortunately, far fewer deaths than predicted. Maybe, unsequestering to come sooner, rather than originally mandated?
But don’t forget the second wave will be much bigger so we have to stay closed until everybody is unemployed. Gotta keep the ball rolling.
I heard you can catch the Chinese Flu just by being within 100 yards of a Television with CNN on??
First things first
I cant recall any media mentioning any deaths due to regular flu.
Its all Covid-19. I guess regular flu deaths dont exist anymore.(SAR)
This article is probably accurate or possibly even a lower % than it reports.
My niece is 5 year old and came down with all the symptoms of COVID-19. She came in close contact with a relative who definitely had the virus. She is recovering well and has no elevated temperature for 2 days.
The doctor said that she did not need to be tested as she was required to observe the quarantine regardless and that any treatment he would prescribe would not be altered whether she tested positive or not.
Chances are there are MANY cases such as hers that would significantly effect the mortality figure.
>>estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.
bit less than 4%
and this year’s flu numbers are down because socialist distancing, yo
Either way: Trump acted tyrannically when he didn’t need to, OR he didn’t react strongly/early enough to stop it. Don’t let Trump get a victory.
“But dont forget the second wave will be much bigger so we have to stay closed until everybody is unemployed. Gotta keep the ball rolling.”
We elect the least among us to lead us. Now, we have panicked idiots, begging morons to impose ever more draconian measures.
Like it or not, (and I don’t), a large number of Americans have been groomed to believe the government is wise and looking out for our best interests. Ever since Gov. DeWine went on offense with restrictions and rules, I see and hear Democrats lovingly praising him. It’s unbelievable.
If Trump walks on water, he can’t swim.
RE: bit less than 4%
A bit? ( that’s a huge understatement ). That’s 6 times less fatal than what they tell us.
But it’s still 10 time deadlier than the seasonal flu.
>>But dont forget the second wave will be much bigger so we have to stay closed until everybody is unemployed. Gotta keep the ball rolling.
through next year’s flu season too. 4 more years if Trump wins. Back to work if Cuomo-Sanders win.
“But dont forget the second wave will be much bigger so we have to stay closed until everybody is unemployed. Gotta keep the ball rolling.”
Eye on the ball — OPPORTUNITIES (Tuna Nan’s word) for mayhem in November by our domestic enemies.
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