Coronavirus Modeling Had Faulty Assumptions, the Real Data Gives Us Hope

My dear old statistics teacher used to say that relying on any model, however good but founded on past data, was like driving by looking at the rearview mirror; fine as long as the future looked like the past. As governments struggle with their response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the $64 trillion question is "which past does the future look like?"

Science writes how models have become supremely important:

Entire cities and countries have been locked down based on hastily done forecasts that often haven't been peer reviewed. ... The Netherlands ... Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected “working endlessly to contain the virus” and “shutting down the country completely.” Instead, he opted for “controlled spread” of the virus while making sure the health system isn't swamped with COVID-19 patients.

Other governments have chosen different models and in place of "controlled spread," bet on total lockdown.

Just how influential those models are became apparent over the past 2 weeks in the United Kingdom. ... a group at Imperial College London [recommended an approach] not unlike the strategy the Netherlands is pursuing. ... But on 16 March, the Imperial College group published a dramatically revised model that concluded—based on fresh data from the United Kingdom and Italy—that even a reduced peak would fill twice as many intensive care beds as estimated previously, overwhelming capacity. The only choice, they concluded, was to go all out on control measures.

But as new data becomes available the "fog of war" is slowly lifting and rekindling the debate between the models.

Funny thing about assumptions.

I had gone on what I thought was a terrible binge eating escapade for about two weeks.

I was terrified when I went to weigh myself but It was the same weight as before.

I realized that although likely not healthy, I was eating one very big meal a day and that was pretty much it.

I didn’t look at all the factors.

It was bad science.

But my bad science didn’t bring down a nation’s economy

I did updates on the 2014 ebola outbreak on the thread linked below. Reality turned out to be way different than projections. The updates are the last posts on the thread. Reality was far different than projections and hysteria.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3210773/posts

In other words the projected US deaths from ebola were off by a factor of 14,000.

The UK covid model has already been revised DOWN by a factor of 25. The others based on it like www.covidactnow.org and the NYT model Hillary has been tweeting will be revised down too, or will look very stupid. Wait for it!

Just a reminder - original estimates were worst case scenarios BASED UPON NO SOCIAL DISTANCING.

Here is what real data shows - these are not model based projections, but reported data to date [based upon worldometer CSSE and JHU - see note on graph]:

Please note that countries that adopted very strong public health measures - social distancing, strict contract tracing - had very different trajectories than the FLUBRO approach which every country in the world has now departed from.

While the FLUBROs advocate just standing on the track in front of the freight train, everyone else has chosen to get off of the effin RR track.

Get it through your heads folks. The FLUBROs are trying to kill people.

And we didn't need to destroy our economy over this. Singapore, SK, Japan and Taiwan didn't. They took it seriously and got ahead of it. Folks who hold CV-19 parties, lick toilet seats and hug an infected minority are locked up, welded in, or in the case of NK - shot.

I believe your graphic of Number of CASES is not representative of the true situation. The number of CASES is totally dependent on the number of TESTS. The US, with its recent explosion of test data will, by definition lead in the number of cases. The verified number of actual Corvid-19 virus deaths would be a far better indicator, and the US is near the bottom of this indicator when calculated on a per-capita basis.

I'm a 62 year old US male who smokes and has prostate cancer. I worked 25 years on the front line in the airline industry where AIDS, SARS, H1N1, MERS, Bird Flu etc. were an issue. I don't remember taking any extra care not to get infected other than a good hands washing after I had worked in a real gooey place in the cabin.

I've never had a flu shot, and generally speaking I don't get colds or flus but I do remember the crappy feeling these can give me.

This Covid-19 outbreak scared me due to my age, my compromised health issues and the media hype. I've been practicing good hygiene to protect me from this virus since February.

Last week I felt crappy. Started with cramps in calf muscles, lower abdominal region and some slight chest pain. My body temp was slightly elevated by 1 degs intermittently. This lasted for 2.5 days.

On the 3rd day I woke up from long nap with my pillow case soaked from sweat and I felt great. Keep in mind I have regular hot flashes from the subscribed meds I'm on but but my pillow case has never been this wet.

Since then none of the virus symptoms listed above have returned. I can't get a test done here in Minnesota unless a temp over 100 degs. I ask myself, did I have it?

“The FLUBROs are trying to kill people.”

Let’s not go that far, that’s what they say about us (that we wish people dead to make our point - I had to get one guy zotted for that).

No, the FluBros think they won’t get it (in fact, they’re probably holed up, like most of the realists here), but they’ve seen their huge-retirement portfolio take a dive, and they want that money back - and if that means making (other) people work under these conditions, so be it.

Obviously they use numbers that support them. One number you DO NOT see them use is daily flu deaths versus daily Coronavirus deaths. Soon they won’t be able to use weekly, and then monthly, and then their big number - yearly, will be out the door too, as it is now in Italy.

In fact the ONLY number that should be looked at is overall number of deaths in a given country (for all causes) over a given time period, versus a year ago - as everything else can be fudged (for example, Germany blames diabetes if you have diabetes when you die from Coronavirus). Italy had a video on that a couple of weeks ago, and it was HORRIBLE.

“They will start mixing in flu deaths with China virus deaths to meet their monthly quotas.”

I wouldn’t put it past the FluBros. They’ll compare “Coronavirus Deaths” to “Flu Deaths” (defined by them as Coronavirus plus influenza).

...and then they’ll say that they were right - always more “Flu Deaths” than “Coronavirus Deaths”.

“The number of CASES is totally dependent on the number of TESTS”

“This idiocy and methodological malpractice is only worthy of a sarcastic response. No one had measles until we had a test for it. Or like those who tried to say Rubella is just the measles bro.”

The number of cases REPORTED is of course dependent on the number of tests administered.

How the HELL can we know how many cases of this faux pandemic there are without a test returning a positive result OR an autopsy of everyone who dies no matter from what just to see if they have the China Virus.

In order to arrive any meaningful statistics there IS no other way. Italy has now reported just 12% of the deaths they have reported originally from the China Virus are in fact directly attributable to it. That mean there is no conclusive proof the other 88% died from the China Virus. The ones who died which were reported had an average age of OVER 80 yrs and had multiple health issues.

This is a bullshit media driven hysteria. You really want to do something based on data (incomplete as it is) then restrict people 65 and over to their homes for awhile because THEY are the ones dying and even there a minute %.

It IS the flu, perhaps....PERHAPS a bit more nasty but the flu nonetheless and this entire scam will be done inside of 30 days.

BobL makes a great point, Andy.

I would ask the mods to delete your post.

Although people see this VERY differently, no one is trying to kill anyone.

Fighting with each other here on FR and using language like that helps exactly no one. I wish we all could stop no matter how strongly we believe in the righteousness of our views and the stupidity of others.

My two cents anyway.

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