Posted on 03/26/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
Modeling must not just include confirmed cases, and deaths attributed to the effects of the disease, but the rate of transmission/infection etc. When China says 82 k infected, that really means more like 820k+ infected, only 82k tested positive and XX died.
Editorializing:
Kinda just like any other infectious disease- here in the US, 30-35 million (10% of the US pop) confirmed cases of flu, 29k (.09% or something) died of complications of it so far this season per the CDC. Wuhan virus is a drop in the bucket so far, but the curves ought to and likely will wind up like flu, other strains of corona ( common cold) etc.
While this indeed has implications for the populations of the world, it has been manipulated for the pleasure of the beast- to rid the US of the Donald. Yeah, I think it is a grand conspiracy, but alas, like the rest of the them, no one actually believes “they” could would do such a thing.... Right!
What’s in your world view? (rhetorical of course, directed at the audience at large)
Blessings!
Dennis Prager was all over this too. He had been saying Imperial College was way off on prior outbreaks.
@AlexBerenson
6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
This should be a career killer, but when the media wants panic he will be their go to guy.
Bttt
Probably why the market didn’t seem to be too alarmed by the Jobless Claim numbers.
Mission Accomplished
Get out of the way of the massive walk-back by the media and their drones.
Gosh - one of the super panic-mongers sees his reputation heading down the tubes and revises his “analysis”...
“If China, where it all started as far back as December last year, and which has a population of a massive 1.4 billion, only has 82,000 infected...”
Nobody bought that because China lies. Still looks like they lied about when it started, and how many cases they really had.
I doubt they have any real idea how many cases they’ve had. I’m watching other countries for clues on progression of the curve because China can’t be trusted.
The only good news from China I trust comes from McDonalds. They announced that 95% of their outlets in China are now open.
Lol! He's going to tell you you're too stupid to understand his exponential growth charts or some such nonsense.
Looks like the chickens are coming home to roost for the panic pushers on FR.
“Well, he only cost the US $2-6 trillion. Where should we send the bill?”
I’m guessing all of that money won’t be spent unless we have a worst-case scenario. Maybe that’s naive.
And several fake freepers will 100% buy his BS yet again. An addiction to being told what to think by the mainstream media? Maybe.
everyone here should post that to FB. They are deleting it when I post it. It needs to go out far and wide.
Reminds me of Nate Silver in 2016. A year of "Trump has no chance, 99% that Hillary wins" to "Maybe Trump has a small chance" the day before election day to something like 'He's got a 50/50 chance' at like 2pm on election day and there ya go. On the record Nate Silver predicted it could go either way.
Well duh
Tjis of us who have been complaining are proven correct yet again
No it doesn’t because he now says it had already spread around to half of the UK before it was even identified. It is a very minor disease over all. This guy should be executed IMO for crimes against humanity.
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