Posted on 03/26/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H. L. Mencken
Is the Pope Communist?
Where’s Gomer when you need him?
Surprise surprise surprise!!!
I knew something was amiss when the flu line on his graph was flatlined.
ALL viruses rise and decline in a curve. Corona, flu, etc.
I guess we won’t be seeing the FEARPERS posting too much on this!
So, all the good news starts to come out as soon as the bill passes?
He must have the same math skills as Brian Williams and Mara Gay.
Bttt.
5.56mm
I’m shocked, I tell you. Shocked!
What's a couple of zeros in scientific modeling?
Oh, wait, from my stats class, I think those are...."ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE"!!!
The sky had to be falling iot sink the Trump economy, at least here in the US.
Several, many, of us stayed this would attenuate to approximately how influenza stands. Do we get a double portion of the bankrupt stimulus package? Maybe only half?
Evil walks anmong us and it isn’t a virus....
Regardless of the damage done, it’s only the last thing he says that counts.
Imma wait and see if he revises it again in a couple days before commenting :)
Interesting bit to me is the part about “old and sick who would have died anyway”. It is possible that this thing took Italy’s entire elderly death total for 2020 and just compressed it into the space of a few weeks.
At least he admitted it.
Just like the flu.
Models are only as good as the data used to produce them. Garbage in equals garbage out. This is the same result as the man-made global warming models. Except this guy had the integrity to change his.
How could anyone with half a brain even believe that sh*t?
If China, where it all started as far back as December last year, and which has a population of a massive 1.4 billion, only has 82,000 infected IN TOTAL(infected mind, not dead), how the heck do you come up with a staggering 2.2 million dead in the US with a population of only 330 million?
Yet the so called “concern trolls” right here on Freerepublic, kept posting these garbage figures, 24/7 week after week for months.
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