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Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model
DailyWire.com ^ | March 26th, 2020 | Amanda Prestigiacomo

Posted on 03/26/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 202003; 20200325; ayecorona; chinavirusmodeling; coronavirus; coronavirusmodel; covid19; epidemiologist; imperialcollege; neilferguson; oops; teamapocalypsesucks; unitedkingdom; wuhanflu
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken


21 posted on 03/26/2020 11:02:19 AM PDT by BwanaNdege ( Experience is the best teacher, but if you can accept it 2nd hand, the tuition is less!)
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To: polymuser
Were models purposely inaccurate for leftist political purposes?

Is the Pope Communist?

22 posted on 03/26/2020 11:02:25 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Where’s Gomer when you need him?

Surprise surprise surprise!!!


23 posted on 03/26/2020 11:03:12 AM PDT by SoCal Pubbie
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To: Rurudyne

I knew something was amiss when the flu line on his graph was flatlined.

ALL viruses rise and decline in a curve. Corona, flu, etc.


24 posted on 03/26/2020 11:03:53 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

I guess we won’t be seeing the FEARPERS posting too much on this!


25 posted on 03/26/2020 11:04:10 AM PDT by dowcaet
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

So, all the good news starts to come out as soon as the bill passes?


26 posted on 03/26/2020 11:05:00 AM PDT by calljack (Sometimes your worst nightmare is just a start.)
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Comment #27 Removed by Moderator

To: aMorePerfectUnion

He must have the same math skills as Brian Williams and Mara Gay.


28 posted on 03/26/2020 11:05:55 AM PDT by rightwingintelligentsia (Democrats: The perfect party for the helpless and stupid, and those who would rule over them.)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Bttt.

5.56mm


29 posted on 03/26/2020 11:06:00 AM PDT by M Kehoe (DRAIN THE SWAMP! Finish THE WALL!)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

I’m shocked, I tell you. Shocked!


30 posted on 03/26/2020 11:06:08 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam (Immigrants with tuberculosis and polio are welcome, but youÂ’d better be able to prove your dog is v)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion
Revised model from over 2,000,000 to now 20,000?

What's a couple of zeros in scientific modeling?

Oh, wait, from my stats class, I think those are...."ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE"!!!

31 posted on 03/26/2020 11:06:27 AM PDT by G Larry (There is no great virtue in bargaining with the Devil)
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To: z3n

The sky had to be falling iot sink the Trump economy, at least here in the US.

Several, many, of us stayed this would attenuate to approximately how influenza stands. Do we get a double portion of the bankrupt stimulus package? Maybe only half?

Evil walks anmong us and it isn’t a virus....


32 posted on 03/26/2020 11:06:36 AM PDT by Manly Warrior (US ARMY (Ret), "No Free Lunches for the Dogs of War")
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Regardless of the damage done, it’s only the last thing he says that counts.


33 posted on 03/26/2020 11:06:47 AM PDT by rightwingcrazy (;-,)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Imma wait and see if he revises it again in a couple days before commenting :)


34 posted on 03/26/2020 11:07:59 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: G Larry

Interesting bit to me is the part about “old and sick who would have died anyway”. It is possible that this thing took Italy’s entire elderly death total for 2020 and just compressed it into the space of a few weeks.


35 posted on 03/26/2020 11:09:00 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer)
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To: KevinB

36 posted on 03/26/2020 11:09:14 AM PDT by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

At least he admitted it.


37 posted on 03/26/2020 11:09:31 AM PDT by 1066AD
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Just like the flu.


38 posted on 03/26/2020 11:09:42 AM PDT by eclectic (Liberalism is a mental disorder)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Models are only as good as the data used to produce them. Garbage in equals garbage out. This is the same result as the man-made global warming models. Except this guy had the integrity to change his.


39 posted on 03/26/2020 11:10:34 AM PDT by deweyfrank (Nobody's Perfect)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

How could anyone with half a brain even believe that sh*t?
If China, where it all started as far back as December last year, and which has a population of a massive 1.4 billion, only has 82,000 infected IN TOTAL(infected mind, not dead), how the heck do you come up with a staggering 2.2 million dead in the US with a population of only 330 million?
Yet the so called “concern trolls” right here on Freerepublic, kept posting these garbage figures, 24/7 week after week for months.

40 posted on 03/26/2020 11:10:37 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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