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Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model
DailyWire.com ^ | March 26th, 2020 | Amanda Prestigiacomo

Posted on 03/26/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 202003; 20200325; ayecorona; chinavirusmodeling; coronavirus; coronavirusmodel; covid19; epidemiologist; imperialcollege; neilferguson; oops; teamapocalypsesucks; unitedkingdom; wuhanflu
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To: SmokingJoe

Modeling must not just include confirmed cases, and deaths attributed to the effects of the disease, but the rate of transmission/infection etc. When China says 82 k infected, that really means more like 820k+ infected, only 82k tested positive and XX died.

Editorializing:

Kinda just like any other infectious disease- here in the US, 30-35 million (10% of the US pop) confirmed cases of flu, 29k (.09% or something) died of complications of it so far this season per the CDC. Wuhan virus is a drop in the bucket so far, but the curves ought to and likely will wind up like flu, other strains of corona ( common cold) etc.

While this indeed has implications for the populations of the world, it has been manipulated for the pleasure of the beast- to rid the US of the Donald. Yeah, I think it is a grand conspiracy, but alas, like the rest of the them, no one actually believes “they” could would do such a thing.... Right!

What’s in your world view? (rhetorical of course, directed at the audience at large)

Blessings!


81 posted on 03/26/2020 11:35:43 AM PDT by Manly Warrior (US ARMY (Ret), "No Free Lunches for the Dogs of War")
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

82 posted on 03/26/2020 11:38:13 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: G Larry

Missed it by that much!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw


83 posted on 03/26/2020 11:39:35 AM PDT by lurked_for_a_decade (Imagination is more important than knowledge! ( e_uid == 0 ) != ( e_uid = 0 ). I Read kernel code.)
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To: faucetman

Dennis Prager was all over this too. He had been saying Imperial College was way off on prior outbreaks.


84 posted on 03/26/2020 11:39:39 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog (Patrick Henry would have been an anti-vaxxer)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

@AlexBerenson
6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.


85 posted on 03/26/2020 11:42:00 AM PDT by sanjuanbob (Yes, I CAN take a joke /s)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

This should be a career killer, but when the media wants panic he will be their go to guy.


86 posted on 03/26/2020 11:42:18 AM PDT by DAC21 ( and Naflet had demint)
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To: moovova

Bttt


87 posted on 03/26/2020 11:42:24 AM PDT by Guenevere (Press On!)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Probably why the market didn’t seem to be too alarmed by the Jobless Claim numbers.


88 posted on 03/26/2020 11:42:41 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: DAC21

Mission Accomplished


89 posted on 03/26/2020 11:43:00 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Get out of the way of the massive walk-back by the media and their drones.


90 posted on 03/26/2020 11:43:10 AM PDT by immadashell (Save Innocent Lives - ban gun free zones)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Gosh - one of the super panic-mongers sees his reputation heading down the tubes and revises his “analysis”...


91 posted on 03/26/2020 11:43:31 AM PDT by trebb (Don't howl about illegal leeches, or Trump in general, while not donating to FR - it's hypocritical.)
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To: SmokingJoe

“If China, where it all started as far back as December last year, and which has a population of a massive 1.4 billion, only has 82,000 infected...”

Nobody bought that because China lies. Still looks like they lied about when it started, and how many cases they really had.

I doubt they have any real idea how many cases they’ve had. I’m watching other countries for clues on progression of the curve because China can’t be trusted.

The only good news from China I trust comes from McDonalds. They announced that 95% of their outlets in China are now open.


92 posted on 03/26/2020 11:44:18 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Epstein pulled a Carradine, the bozo.)
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To: USS Alaska
"Travis, yesterday you axed us to check back with you in 14 days, well I'm 13 days early, but thought you might want to prepare the back pedal device on your vehicle."

Lol! He's going to tell you you're too stupid to understand his exponential growth charts or some such nonsense.

93 posted on 03/26/2020 11:44:36 AM PDT by cweese (Hook 'em Horns!!!)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Looks like the chickens are coming home to roost for the panic pushers on FR.


94 posted on 03/26/2020 11:44:37 AM PDT by Codeflier (Covid-19 taught me: Two types of "conservatives", frightened safety seekers vs. freedom lovers)
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To: KevinB

“Well, he only cost the US $2-6 trillion. Where should we send the bill?”

I’m guessing all of that money won’t be spent unless we have a worst-case scenario. Maybe that’s naive.


95 posted on 03/26/2020 11:46:29 AM PDT by cymbeline
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To: DAC21

And several fake freepers will 100% buy his BS yet again. An addiction to being told what to think by the mainstream media? Maybe.


96 posted on 03/26/2020 11:46:49 AM PDT by tatown
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To: moovova

everyone here should post that to FB. They are deleting it when I post it. It needs to go out far and wide.


97 posted on 03/26/2020 11:46:55 AM PDT by spacejunkie2001
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To: rightwingcrazy
Regardless of the damage done, it’s only the last thing he says that counts.

Reminds me of Nate Silver in 2016. A year of "Trump has no chance, 99% that Hillary wins" to "Maybe Trump has a small chance" the day before election day to something like 'He's got a 50/50 chance' at like 2pm on election day and there ya go. On the record Nate Silver predicted it could go either way.

98 posted on 03/26/2020 11:48:36 AM PDT by pepsi_junkie (Often wrong, but never in doubt!)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Well duh

Tjis of us who have been complaining are proven correct yet again


99 posted on 03/26/2020 11:48:45 AM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: CharlesWayneCT

No it doesn’t because he now says it had already spread around to half of the UK before it was even identified. It is a very minor disease over all. This guy should be executed IMO for crimes against humanity.


100 posted on 03/26/2020 11:49:18 AM PDT by Codeflier (Covid-19 taught me: Two types of "conservatives", frightened safety seekers vs. freedom lovers)
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