Posted on 03/22/2020 11:01:30 PM PDT by Vendome
An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This means it was the deadliest season in more than four decades -- since 1976, the date of the first published paper reporting total seasonal flu deaths, said CDC Spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund.
In previous seasons, flu-related deaths have ranged from a low of about 12,000 during the 2011-2012 season to a high of about 56,000 during the 2012-2013.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
If there were no vaccine for the seasonal flu the death rate would undoubtedly be higher.
If there were a vaccine for the corona flu the death rate would undoubtedly be lower.
If we use that assumption, a reversal of the current way the two are currently compared, CV19 may be equal to or less that the flu mortality rate.
Yes, lots/most don’t get tested for the flu, but the 0.1% is an estimated rate - the 0.1% is confirmed deaths / (confirmed cases + estimated # of cases -> much larger group)
The same is said of the flu:
In 2001, 257 American death certificates listed the flu as cause of death. Albeit, only 18 of these 257 people were positively confirmed as having a true flu, while the remaining 239 were simply assumed to have died from the flu.
http://www.urgentcarefl.com/many-people-die-flu-every-year-us/
So far, COVID-19 has a higher death rate among confirmed deaths/illnesses than confirmed deaths/illnesses for the flu.
For the flu, the CDC seems to be lumping estimated flu and pneumonia deaths together, which would make the flu number look larger.
If we're going to compare the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths to the number of estimated COVID-19 cases, then we'd have to compare the number of confirmed flu deaths to the number of estimated flu cases, which would make the flu death rate far, far lower.
So in a environment most highly conducive to transmission, with an original (your source ) total of 3,711 people (5 Feb: "Most of the infections on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship appear to have occurred before or around the start of the 2-week quarantine that started on 5 February 2020), 634 tested positive among 3,063 tests, with 320 showing no symptoms (20 Feb) and with 476 of the positives being 60 years and older and 328 from Japan and China, then 8 people died.
So the questions are, how can this be a barometer for expected Covid deaths among the general public? And what would the expect rate of infection and deaths be in the same situation for the 2017-18 flu? The first question is related to the second, for the conservative CDC estimate of 2017-18 flu deaths (61k) states that "Older adults also accounted for 83% of deaths."
How do you think most of the COVID19 patients are dying? (PS pneumonia is usually caused by the flu, hence when they are linked). And we didn’t have test kits widely for COVID19 and are not testing much in general, so again the rate will be higher than it really is because we are not widely testing.
Yes, true. By the way, I don't think the economy should be shut down or that our country should hand out trillions of dollars.
I'm only arguing that this new virus is more serious than the flu.
People also get pneumonia from other viruses and from bacterial infections, too.
Indeed, but the vast majority are from the flu. Likewise, some of these COVID19 deaths are being counted as COVID19 deaths even though the cause is something else, with 75% of all deaths having 2 or more comorbidities so far.
On that cruise ship, 8 deaths out of 634 confirmed cases would be 1.3%. Correct? Your point is that most of those people were older. But, even based on the CDC’s inflated numbers for the flu, the flu death rate for age 65+ is currently 170.3 out of 100,000, which would be less than 0.2%. Correct? You can check my numbers here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S6
As we can see happening in Italy, there are not enough supplies to meet the demand, so now, in Italy, people age 60+ can’t even be treated, which is driving the death rate even higher.
And we have vaccines for it.
Where was the PANIC then??
Or lack of beds.
Then people need to stop talking about 80,000 estimated flu deaths and comparing that number to the current number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths.
Yes, the CDC does estimate flu deaths, and it estimates higher, probably to encourage vaccinations.
The point is, even the CDC’s overblown estimate has a lower death rate than the current death rate for COVID-19.
The actual number of confirmed flu deaths is only about 500/year, and even that number could be overblown.
For COVID-19, confirmed deaths out of confirmed cases is currently more than 1% in the U.S.
But national health care, in which the most vulnerable are most likely to be murdered (if in the womb) or abandoned, is the answer.
National healthcare is not the answer.
Indeed the new virus is more serious than the flu, and yet about 80% are said to recover without any medical help. Thus neither Covid or the flu warrant a draconian all ages "quarantine masses and shutdown the economy" hysteria. Maybe 3 weeks ago industry should have been retooled to make N95 masks and then the gov. sends them to every address, and require all outside and in business to wear them correctly, but except for the very aged and infirm and immigration, allow most businesses to operate as best they can (of course, hindsight is easy)
About 6 million motor vehicle accidents happen every year in America, with over 6,000 per day suffering injuries or disabilities , and over 90 Americans a day dying as a result. Yearly. Where is the hysteria over this preventable (by extreme measures: garage-in-place; no unessential travel; 6 car lengths if you must) prolonged damage to life and life? Is it because the cost of such outweighs the benefits, while we can abort 3,000 of the most vulnerable a day (in the womb) mainly because of convenience? There is something wrong.
That means 20% do need medical help. That's the problem.
Of course, the Dems will always try to take advantage of a crisis.
On the other hand, this crisis bolsters Trump's arguments for protected borders and bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., for example.
When we recognize that this new virus is a serious matter, we can point to those issues. We can point out why caution is needed in immigration. We can point to the limited supplies available in the U.S. and make an argument for more production here. And so on.
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