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To: brookwood; rb22982; Tired of Taxes; Vendome
On the Diamond Princess everyone was tested, no there were no unconfirmed positives. 8 people died of Covid19 out of 712 who tested positive, so death rate was 1.12%. Those who had the virus without symptoms was estimated to be 17.9%. This rate is estimated because the delay between infection and symptoms is 3 to 9 days. https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 These people were older than the average for the US, which is encouraging.

So in a environment most highly conducive to transmission, with an original (your source ) total of 3,711 people (5 Feb: "Most of the infections on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship appear to have occurred before or around the start of the 2-week quarantine that started on 5 February 2020), 634 tested positive among 3,063 tests, with 320 showing no symptoms (20 Feb) and with 476 of the positives being 60 years and older and  328 from Japan and China, then 8 people died.

So the questions are, how can this be a barometer for expected Covid deaths among the general public? And what would the expect rate of infection and deaths be in the same situation for the 2017-18 flu? The first question is related to the second, for the conservative CDC estimate of 2017-18 flu deaths (61k) states that "Older adults also accounted for 83% of deaths."

66 posted on 03/23/2020 9:00:27 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: daniel1212

On that cruise ship, 8 deaths out of 634 confirmed cases would be 1.3%. Correct? Your point is that most of those people were older. But, even based on the CDC’s inflated numbers for the flu, the flu death rate for age 65+ is currently 170.3 out of 100,000, which would be less than 0.2%. Correct? You can check my numbers here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S6

As we can see happening in Italy, there are not enough supplies to meet the demand, so now, in Italy, people age 60+ can’t even be treated, which is driving the death rate even higher.


71 posted on 03/23/2020 9:50:17 AM PDT by Tired of Taxes
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