Total reported cases.
Currently, deaths are increasing ten-fold every 14 days, but the data only covers from 10 to 100. Reported cases are increasing 10 fold every 8 days.
Posted on 03/18/2020 8:26:33 PM PDT by Teacher317
Just posted this on another thread, and I think that it might deserve its own. It's potentially great news, and most of us are really desperate for that right about now...
Looking at the graphs of New Cases Reported in China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, France, and Spain, they are relatively consistent. Some cases get reported, and then a sudden rise in cases reported lasts for 13-17 days, then they hit a plateau for 3-4 days, then they begin to decline.
China's rise lasted for 25 days, but that's easily explained by the fact that they were first, that they have such a massive population and density (and not the best health care system... I've been in Chinese hospitals before... I literally walked out of one, with an open wound filled with glass from a car accident), and that Chinese New Year involves a HUGE amount of travel within China for almost all Chinese for up to two weeks. Their jump in reported cases didn't begin until JAN 22, when people were already traveling for the holiday.
South Korea's accelerated rise began on FEB 19 (27 new cases, then 53, 98, and 227, etc), and topped out on MAR 3 (at 851... after 13 days of rising... then 400 on MAR 4, then 660, 309, 448, 272, 165 on MAR 9...). Since Mar 10, they've had more completed recoveries reported than new cases reported!!!
Same with Iran... FEB 26 (44, then 106, 143, 205...), peaking on MAR 14 (after 17 days) at 1365, then 1209 and 1053...
Italy, France, and Spain are all right at the 2-week mark after the rise began, so there's not a plateau started yet... but a few more days will tell even more clearly. Italy's last 4 days were 3500, 3600, 3200, and 3500... seems like a plateau to me... hopefully maybe please!!!
Our accelerated rise began after MAR 7-9 (98, 116, 106... then 163, 290, 307, 396). If we follow the path of the other bell curves, where the rise only lasts for 13-17 days, then our plateau should begin this weekend, and the decline should begin next week.
On the other side, we are getting a zillion testing kits put out soon, so we will also likely see a spike in reported numbers, as all of those who have had no symptoms suddenly get added to the pile, so I may get to look like a total loon after all. :/
“By the way son’s friend works at CDC, says expect interstates to be closed soon.”
$100 donation to FR says it won’t happen.
This certainly won’t meet the media narrative!
The problem with this is, we don't know when things will get better. We only know long after they fact when they got better. It is easier to analyze historical pandemics, versus living through them.
The original name and purpose of the Interstates was the "National Defense Highway System".
Closing to "non-essential vehicles" would allow near exclusive use by large commercial vehicle--gotta move the TP somehow.
Not that I agree with that notion!
Yes, but that's only a rise of 20%... after 4 days since the 14th... 5% per day average seems like a plateau after their run from MAR 6 to MAR 14 rising from 778 to 3497... a 349% increase over 8 days, that an average of 44% per day... 5% is far below 44%... Sad for the 500 dead, but New Cases Reported IS tapering off, even so... or so I'm hoping.
BINGO.
The CDC has been saying for a week that we don’t have enough data and that when the testing data finally emerges there will be a spike in reports which on the surface will seem alarming, but the spike will be caused by having more test data.
now TPTB could ramp up testing as we could see a huge number of cases...
but testing and positives do not necessarily mean incapacitating sickness....
we'll see the death rates..
and I hope they don't change the criteria for "death by corona virus" to "probable death by corona virus"....
The Freeper wing of Corona hype is flaming away.
100% true, and how much can you trust data from Iran and China? But given what is on those gray bar graphs, I find a small glimmer of hope, and want to share it, because a LOT of people are desperate to hear ANYTHING positive, and this is backed up by reported numbers publicly available. That’s what I offer here, not much more. There’s lots of easy counter-arguments about how we are different from the others, we aren’t harsh enough in our travel bans, etc etc etc... but as flat numbers and simplistic interpretation of them, there could be a light at the end of the tunnel just up ahead in a few days, and I like thinking about that.
Any supporting or disproving data is more than welcome!
“That is an absurd rumor. Back it up.”
I heard the same thing from my sister’s best friend’s cousin’s boyfriend at 31 Flavors. I guess it’s pretty serious.”
I kind of get the impression that some people WANT to be proven right about the CFR being high...
Oops, sorry.
Agree 100%.
Be careful of confirmation bias.
If you want the same results as China you have to do the same things as China. First is draconian lock down, tracking and quarantine. Only Taiwan, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and to a lesser degree Japan have done this as far as I know.
None of the rest of us have yet so don’t get your hopes up.
In the case of China, lying about your data probably helps too.
QuigleyDU wrote:
“Well we’re up 2500 cases and 35 deaths today. Appears we are just beginning the vertical climb,
By the way son’s friend works at CDC, says expect interstates to be closed soon.”
Have any other info or link on the closing?
And commercial drivers wouldnt be a carrier for that illness?
Get outta here!
Thanks for you reporting, interesting information.
Total reported cases.
Currently, deaths are increasing ten-fold every 14 days, but the data only covers from 10 to 100. Reported cases are increasing 10 fold every 8 days.
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