[griswold3]

Hmmm March 21-24 for maximum saturation mark

[Sacajaweau]

A graph would be a super help but the consistency is easily followed.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Fascinating that a group of countries with such varying populations all ended up at around 6500 cases in the timeframe. Thanks for posting.

[TexasGator]

“Methodology: “

hmmm .... BuzzFeed posted these graphs FOUR days ago!

[fireman15]

I assume that you may have seen this article that explored the situation on the Diamond Queen that was quarantined off the coast of Japan for weeks. The situation was not as dire as it might have been assumed from the news reports.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

[SaxxonWoods]

I’m no doctor but I’m pretty good with stats, have education in it. I got a similar answer doing similar though more shallow research.

That’s why I’m sitting here hopeful we will know a lot more in 5-7 days.

[dangerdoc]

When antibody tests are available, it will be interesting to see how many people were infected.

[null and void]

As much grief as I've given you (and you should see the ones I deleted instead of mashing Post!) over the recent past, this is good work!

I fervently hope your read on the peak is accurate and that we cleave closely to the South Korea numbers.

Thank you!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[1FreeAmerican]

Can I get all that in a graph please...

[fireman15]

My own guess is that the tests will eventually reveal that far more people are infected that is currently assumed especially in areas like where we live in KIng County, Washington. MOre than 10,000 Chinese people returned to their homes in East King County AFTER the TRump Travel Ban. At least as many returned before the travel ban was initiated but this is not as well documented. Many of these people were likely infected, so this thing had been circulating in this area for quite awhile before it hit a vulnerable population at the Life Care Center of Kirkland and finally got picked up on the radar. With the length of time that has passed and the small number of deaths associated we may not even hit a thousand in this country. The government over-reaction appears to be a huge waste of time and resources. But it will be very interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

[JayGalt]

Thank you interesting analysis.

[Uncle Sham]

How can these numbers be compared when we really don’t know how many folks were able to be tested “when” or “if” they had the virus? In addition, the rate of testing varied between countries and here in the United States, we were quite late to the game in this regard. Wouldn’t all of this factor in to defining the results?

[ifinnegan]

Cool.

[mewzilla]

Fascinating post! Thanks! BTW, I'd be interested to get your take on this if you're interested...

Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk for COVID-19 infection?

[1FreeAmerican]

PS: Thanks for this input. I have been following current numbers and chasing old stats. I can not agree with the current hysteria level based on the previous epidemic/pandemenic reactions. Based on my 2009 H1N1 stats -

Yes, up to 1/5th of the population will get the virus.

.09% of the population will be hospilitized.

.004% of the population will die.

And as of this moment we are no where near these numbers.

Last years numbers are worse than the 2009 stats.

I’m leaning towards a Chicken Little moment...

[cherry]

fantastic work...thankyou...

[goodnesswins]

Thanks for your enlightening work...will be interesting where things are in a week.

[AndyJackson]

there is divergent data to the second inflection point in countries who are reporting a decrease in overall numbers of new cases (curve flattening).

The problem is that you are tracking date where countries take precautionary measures - social distancing etc. The "alarmists" here have been advocating those measures to prevent a debacle from unconstrained disease propagation, something hopefully we will not witness.

[goodnesswins]

Bookmarking under Corona

[libertylover]

Per data from Johns Hopkins, China has had 81,058 cases, 3,230 deaths, and 68,798 recovered. Some cases are still open but nearly 85% recover. But I realize, it’s data from China, so …

Also, the influenza outbreak of 2012-2013 killed 56,000 people in the USA alone. This data from the CDC.

Personally, I fear Comrade Mayor and Comrade Governor a lot more than I fear the coronavirus. Some Comrades have ordered no groups of 40 or more can gather. What about my Constitution right to peaceably assemble? At least one Comrade has banned the sale of guns. What about my Constitutional right to keep and bear arms?

And I think these Comrades will be very slow to give up their powers and very quick to grab power again the next time there’s an emergency. And they can apparently self-designate an emergency.