[null and void]

As much grief as I've given you (and you should see the ones I deleted instead of mashing Post!) over the recent past, this is good work!

I fervently hope your read on the peak is accurate and that we cleave closely to the South Korea numbers.

Thank you!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[gas_dr]

Thank you for your kind words. As I reflected on some of my more emotional posts, I came to the conclusion that perhaps my fear of the unknown drove a bit of my irrational behavior. So I have attempted to simply scale it back to the analysis of the data we know and produce a work product that regardless of opinion, we could discuss constructively.

[Jane Long]

Ditto...

Thanks for this post....praying your guestimation holds true for the US.

[DoodleBob]

My good dr, this is some excellent analysis. And without null, we'd all be on the cart.

I'll post my forecast later, elsewhere. I've also decided to 'up our game' and will introduce a new logistic forecast to address the jump continuity in Hubei's data in Feb 11-13, and my belief that the logistic curve is more appropriate than the exponential or linear approach. I won't post it here since you've earned your moment in the sun.

[pax_et_bonum]

null and void, you’re way too sweet to give real grief!

:-)

[gas_dr]

Its a badge of honor to have received your bring out your dead tag. Thanks! :)