Thank you for your kind words. As I reflected on some of my more emotional posts, I came to the conclusion that perhaps my fear of the unknown drove a bit of my irrational behavior. So I have attempted to simply scale it back to the analysis of the data we know and produce a work product that regardless of opinion, we could discuss constructively.
Not irrational so much as annoying and condescending.
Three variables you left out, which would be hard to quantify in that context.
1) degree of social distancing
2) number of Chinese (Italy has a LOT of them in the garment industry)
3) Different genetic lineages of the virus. Look up Trevor Bedford’s Twitter (virologist / molecular biologist at the University of Washington)
Follow the # of new deaths day by day. Right now there is still a lot of noise but if it smooths out and heads north we will know where we are.
I’ve learned through bitter experience to follow the data, even if I don’t want it to go where it’s going...