Posted on 03/17/2020 4:34:32 PM PDT by gas_dr
I have spent the last several days like most Americans somewhat baffled, perplexed and even a little nervous at the rapidly unfolding events as to CoVID-19. The community seems to have been divided into two groups, those who are advocating that there is nothing more than the common flu here and that there is vast overreaction, and those that advocate that this is a serious illness that for the safety of all requires drastic measures in order to prevent mass death and tragedy. If one looks closely, it is possible to find everything from death rates calculated at 0.1% - 14% and beyond.
Fair warning, I tend to fall in the previous camp and think that this is likely an overblown situation that appears to be gathering inertia, and I have gotten into several heated and admittedly emotional arguments about this current situation. For full disclosure, I am a critical care physician practicing in the United States, and the fear of the unknown probably drives to a small degree my emotion. So this evening, I have decided to put emotion aside, and truly conduct a retrospective analysis of the data that is present in a multivariant system and see where the data lead us.
I have discovered something interesting, and will simply present the data without commentary. I have analyzed from the worldometer website six countries: China, Italy, United States, South Korea, Spain, and France. I have been curious as to the timelines and increase in daily cases in countries that appear to have rampant disease, and countries that have flattened the curve.
Methodology: Utilizing a base case rate of 100 infections, I standardized the time to 6340 infections, which happens to be the current report of United States infections updated at 1800 EDT. Datasouce: Worldometers.info
CHINA: Time to equivalent cases of United States infections: +7 days. (571 cases -> 7,711 cases). Time to Peak of newly reported cases (2nd inflection point) +15 days from current US case load. After inflection point, total new cases fell dramatically
South Korea: Time to equivalent cases of United States Infections: +15 days (100 cases - 6593 cases). Time to peak of newly reported cases (2nd inflection point) +4 days. After inflection point, total new cases fell dramatically.
Italy: Time to equivalent cases United States Infections: +15 days. (75 - 6,387). Time to peak of newly reported cases +7 days. This is where the data may become predictive. Between March 15, 16, and 17 there was a relatively flattening of new cases and decline in the last 24 hours reported period. What will be a test of this model is what happens to the cases in this 24 hour period. According to the other models, this should be the peak.
United States: Time from 100 cases - 6340 cases +15 days. If this model is predictive, we can ascertain in the next 4 - 7 days based on number of cases and shape of curve if we appear to follow South Korea numbers, or Italian and China Numbers. The current acting head of HHS repeatedly states out numbers track South Korea.
Spain: Time from 75 cases - 6391 cases +13 days. Today is day +2 from the relatively time constant 100 -> 6500 cases period.
France: Time from 100 cases - 6633 cases +16 days. Today is day +1 from relative time constant too >6000 cases.
Analysis: At this time, in the six major countries actively reporting all cases and under greatest scrutiny, there appears to be a constant of +14 days to grow from 100 - 6500 cases. The percentage variation in this is extremely small. From the time this 15 day time constant occurs, there is divergent data to the second inflection point in countries who are reporting a decrease in overall numbers of new cases (curve flattening). That time constant is from 4 - 7 days (South Korea (4) - China (7) - Italy (7)) If this is predictive model, what we should see it a flattening of the Italian curve starting today -- that would track with China. In the United States we are between (4) and (7) days from flattening if the data hold. The divergence of cases added between day 4 and day 7 are as few as 1500 new cases as in South Korea, and as many as 20,300 new cases in Italy, which fits an exponential growth from day 4 - 7.
If the Italian numbers are flat tomorrow and the next day, the model appears will become increasingly predictive. Questions that remain to be answered: Are aggressive measures able to reduce the time to second inflection as in the case of South Korea? If so, then we can predict in America that maximal saturation will be March 21. If it trends toward China and Italy, then it will be March 24.
I will update this as data become available. I look forward to reasoned discussion regardless of personal opinion as to the scope of this pandemic.
Not irrational so much as annoying and condescending.
Three variables you left out, which would be hard to quantify in that context.
1) degree of social distancing
2) number of Chinese (Italy has a LOT of them in the garment industry)
3) Different genetic lineages of the virus. Look up Trevor Bedford’s Twitter (virologist / molecular biologist at the University of Washington)
I’d like to see and age graph bar form would likely work best.
How can these numbers be compared when we really don’t know how many folks were able to be tested “when” or “if” they had the virus? In addition, the rate of testing varied between countries and here in the United States, we were quite late to the game in this regard. Wouldn’t all of this factor in to defining the results?
Follow the # of new deaths day by day. Right now there is still a lot of noise but if it smooths out and heads north we will know where we are.
Cool.
While I have said my peace on my behavior, the data quantified demonstrate that we know Italy does not have a lot of social distancing, I agree with you was to the relative amount of Chinese in the Lombardi region of Italy, Genetic Lineages I assume you mean to two subtypes. I have read on that, but this is the largest collection of data that can be subdivided into a significantly significant N.
Might as well include Italy with the China numbers. I doubt we’ll ever know the truth about how the Chinese textile workers spread it Lombardy.
Our population density is significantly lower than Italy’s. Our cities are much more spread out.
I absolutely believe that this virus was already in the United States way BEFORE we even knew it..my guess, beginning of January that is my guess. I know some people who were very ill, including my cousin who is 42 years old, he is a physically fit man, a real estate attorney, who runs marathons, he was very sick, was never tested for the flu, had the vaccine, was sick for 2 weeks he called my uncle in the middle of the night saying that he thought he would NOT make it he was convinced he was going to die, he made it thank God, his wife never got the virus, neither did their two children the youngest being 5 years old they were all fine just he got sick and he is convinced he had coronavirus
On another site, a lay person has been posting about studying the spread in different locales, and inferring from that data at least two different subtypes with different R0 values.
Trevor Bedford has done a lot of work (e.g. Tweeting today that all the Washington nursing home cases can be ascribed to a single “patient 0” who was a 35-year old man who had...wait for it...been to Wuhan.
If we could get virus samples from the infected we could run genetic analysis on them.
It’s not just Chinese in Lombardy. It’s that they are Chinese from Wuhan.
I’ve learned through bitter experience to follow the data, even if I don’t want it to go where it’s going...
Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk for COVID-19 infection?
“The source data is at the web site above in the post that are the raw data. “
The Buzzfeed graphs are plots that represent the data in the manner you describe.
Ditto...
Thanks for this post....praying your guestimation holds true for the US.
Okay....well, how about you bring the BF graphs over here? We can then compare.
Thanks.
Good article on China’s numbers not ‘adding up’ from February:
PS: Thanks for this input. I have been following current numbers and chasing old stats. I can not agree with the current hysteria level based on the previous epidemic/pandemenic reactions. Based on my 2009 H1N1 stats -
Yes, up to 1/5th of the population will get the virus.
.09% of the population will be hospilitized.
.004% of the population will die.
And as of this moment we are no where near these numbers.
Last years numbers are worse than the 2009 stats.
I’m leaning towards a Chicken Little moment...
fantastic work...thankyou...
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