Posted on 03/15/2020 8:05:08 PM PDT by NRx
Britain's coronavirus crisis could last until Spring 2021 and see 7.9million people hospitalised, a secret briefing for senior NHS figures has revealed.
The document, seen by The Guardian newspaper, shows that health chiefs expect the virus to last for another 12 months, and details how it will impact key staff in the NHS, police and fire brigade.
It says: 'As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.'
It is understood the document was drawn up in recent days by Public Health England's preparedness and response team.
Dr Susan Hopkins, Deputy Director of PHE’s National Infection Service said: 'PHE used reasonable worse-case scenario figures, to restate the importance for people with symptoms to stay at home, including health care workers in order to reduce the spread of the virus.'
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, and expert in epidemiology said: 'For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that'
'A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn't well appreciated or understood.'
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
p
Nothing like stoking a little panic purchasing.
Effing man up. And please change your poser screen name.
We are in a “pandemic world war” and you are crying over name calling.
I get called a lying Trump-hating panic spreader 20X an hour, and I don’t snivel about it, I carry on.
Grow a pair, learn, and carry on.
Why do people keep posting all this sensationalism crap from Daily Mail? Everything I have seen of theirs posted here is designed to make money for them while inciting panic. Evil.
Yeah, reality sucks.
Much better to be an ostrich.
“La la la, I can’t hear you!”
There, feel better now?
Travis your doom and gloom is getting really old, why don’t you hop on over to Salon and chat with like minded folks over there!!!
Travis
Your point is what?
That we should in some way fear a “virus” based on someone’s opinion.
I realize you have zero empathy of capacity to understand the economic harm to ones business the fear many are creating over Corona”virus”
Through history persons have worked while those around them were dying. Why should an alleged sickness change that .
I realize you are the resident expert here based off of your own biases. Do as you please go cower in fear and project onto others what you feel.
That is your right.
You seem to love a nanny state. Your an all knowing person trying to save others from their own demise. Who made you the global authority.
It is not ignorance but common sense. I don’t trust doctors, I use common sense. You are the ignoramus.
The usa and other countries are 5 to 10 days behind Italy. Social distancing needs to happen.
******************************************
Yes, social distancing, hand washing, etc, certainly needs to happen.
Or they are ahead of Italy, but didn’t have many deaths that were identified as not being the flu.
And, what percentage of those had other health conditions that contributed to their need for intensive care?
Predict how many are going to die in the US from Corona. Put out a number.
Encouraging dumping gasoline on fires often have ulterior motives.
Well, let’s see, 99,654 have died from the flu so far, and 344,00 from HIV/AIDS , 201,000 from malaria and while COVID-19 is serious , let’s see what we do know: The fatality rate for COVID 19 is nowhere near as high as some alarmist make it out to be (and I know when people are upset and in a panic no one likes to be told to calm down) . But the COVID-19 fatality rate is dropping as a % as more test are own and capture those with mild symptoms. That is why no one, repeat ZERO under the age of 10 has died anywhere in the world, Including China etc.
Dr. Fauci said, “That’s because many corona virus cases are so mild they’re not even being reported. “ Dr. Robert Redfield, who directs the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Dr. Clifford Lane, deputy director of the NIAID concurred, “”If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Dr. Fauci and his colleagues explained.
The fatality rate as a % is already dropping and look: The two countries that have done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea and Germany , they have tested well over 350,000 and have a combined 13,975 cases and 86 deaths for a fatality rate of .0061 or less than 1% and that rate has been falling. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news. The reason there is conjuncture that it may actually be much lower is that based on the Ro rate (and the fact that Italy has long been the # 1 tourist destination for China and has a large Chinese nationals living there), backing the numbers against the timeline, it is almost certain that the number of people who actually have a mild version of COVID-19 in Italy is much higher-many never even know they have it.
As an aside the other factor contributing to China, Italy and Iran deaths are that the two most important parameters in respiratory fitness are: 1. whether the person smokes cigarettes 2. the pollution level of the country. China has a smoking rate of 47.6% and Italy and Iran are also higher than us at 19.5% , pollution rates in China are 4.4 times higher than US, Iran two times an d Italy 50% higher per World Health Organziation
Furthermore: Worldwide there are 86,241 COVID-19 active cases and 93% , or are rated as mild and the mild % is rising, 7% are rated as serious and serious % is falling, about 77,992 have recovered and about 6501 have died.
So until we get a better data set to see how many people are infected (and we may never know as many recover without reporting) at the very least we shouldn’t jump to conclusions and make the negative assumptions that have been repeated as facts, i know that doesn’t play well with those in a panic. At first people were reporting the fatality rate in the US as 6%, then 3% , well it is falling now and under 2%-and falling , probably going to 1% and much lower –still serious and by all means take precautions especially for those in their 80s and 90s but the death rate is nothing like some have been projecting.
If people want something to worry about the cost of this panic and infodemic that is going on is more than monetary. For every 1% increase in unemployment in the U.S there is an increase of 1,500 to 4,000 deaths, quite a few by suicide
What did the South Koreans do that we aren’t doing? I know Singapore completely sealed itself off from the rest of the world early.
Yeah, China hasn’t had millions of people dying, or even tens and tens of thousands.
Where is this hysteria coming from? A secret briefing, eh?
This is what comes from unfettered immigration.
You are correct
Driving accidents aren’t contagious. And 1 out of every 500 drivers don’t die in an accident
Every hour I’m called a lying anti-Trump panic and hysteria spreader for trying to warn folks what’s coming.
******************************************************
So what’s coming Travis? What specifically? I’m sure the White House and the bunch of bunglers you see there would like to know there’s a heroic soothsayer who can guide them to correct decisions and avoid pitfalls from their ignorance.
Are you in Poland now, how is it there?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.