Well, let’s see, 99,654 have died from the flu so far, and 344,00 from HIV/AIDS , 201,000 from malaria and while COVID-19 is serious , let’s see what we do know: The fatality rate for COVID 19 is nowhere near as high as some alarmist make it out to be (and I know when people are upset and in a panic no one likes to be told to calm down) . But the COVID-19 fatality rate is dropping as a % as more test are own and capture those with mild symptoms. That is why no one, repeat ZERO under the age of 10 has died anywhere in the world, Including China etc.
Dr. Fauci said, “That’s because many corona virus cases are so mild they’re not even being reported. “ Dr. Robert Redfield, who directs the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Dr. Clifford Lane, deputy director of the NIAID concurred, “”If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Dr. Fauci and his colleagues explained.
The fatality rate as a % is already dropping and look: The two countries that have done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea and Germany , they have tested well over 350,000 and have a combined 13,975 cases and 86 deaths for a fatality rate of .0061 or less than 1% and that rate has been falling. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news. The reason there is conjuncture that it may actually be much lower is that based on the Ro rate (and the fact that Italy has long been the # 1 tourist destination for China and has a large Chinese nationals living there), backing the numbers against the timeline, it is almost certain that the number of people who actually have a mild version of COVID-19 in Italy is much higher-many never even know they have it.
As an aside the other factor contributing to China, Italy and Iran deaths are that the two most important parameters in respiratory fitness are: 1. whether the person smokes cigarettes 2. the pollution level of the country. China has a smoking rate of 47.6% and Italy and Iran are also higher than us at 19.5% , pollution rates in China are 4.4 times higher than US, Iran two times an d Italy 50% higher per World Health Organziation
Furthermore: Worldwide there are 86,241 COVID-19 active cases and 93% , or are rated as mild and the mild % is rising, 7% are rated as serious and serious % is falling, about 77,992 have recovered and about 6501 have died.
So until we get a better data set to see how many people are infected (and we may never know as many recover without reporting) at the very least we shouldn’t jump to conclusions and make the negative assumptions that have been repeated as facts, i know that doesn’t play well with those in a panic. At first people were reporting the fatality rate in the US as 6%, then 3% , well it is falling now and under 2%-and falling , probably going to 1% and much lower –still serious and by all means take precautions especially for those in their 80s and 90s but the death rate is nothing like some have been projecting.
If people want something to worry about the cost of this panic and infodemic that is going on is more than monetary. For every 1% increase in unemployment in the U.S there is an increase of 1,500 to 4,000 deaths, quite a few by suicide
Good post.
I keep wondering WHY we do NOT see lots of interviews with those that have recovered from the Coronavirus?
I think I already KNOW the answer to that.